
Contents
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23 On the Psychology of the Recognition Heuristic: Retrieval Primacy as a Key Determinant of Its Use
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THE PRESENT STUDY THE PRESENT STUDY
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METHOD METHOD
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Observers and Observed Judges Observers and Observed Judges
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Observational Coding Scheme Observational Coding Scheme
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Interobserver Reliability Interobserver Reliability
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Observed Cases: Availability and Intercorrelations of Cues Observed Cases: Availability and Intercorrelations of Cues
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RESULTS RESULTS
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Bail Hearings: Decisions and Duration Bail Hearings: Decisions and Duration
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Bail Decision-Making Policies Bail Decision-Making Policies
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DISCUSSION DISCUSSION
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
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NOTES NOTES
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APPENDIX A APPENDIX A
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APPENDIX B APPENDIX B
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28 Psychological Models of Professional Decision Making
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Published:April 2011
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Abstract
People are often expected to make decisions based on all of the relevant information, weighted and combined appropriately. Under many conditions, however, people use heuristic strategies that depart from this ideal. This chapter tested the ability of two models to predict bail decisions made by judges in two courts. In both courts, a simple heuristic proved to be a better predictor of judicial decisions than a more complex model that instantiated the principles of due process. Specifically, judges were “passing the buck” because they relied on decisions made by the police, prosecution, and previous bench. Problematically, these earlier decisions were not significantly related to case characteristics. These findings have implications for the types of models researchers use to capture professional decision-making policies.
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