
Contents
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Introduction Introduction
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Scenario 1: Business as Usual as Set against the Carrying Capacity of the Planet Scenario 1: Business as Usual as Set against the Carrying Capacity of the Planet
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From Past to Future: The Case of the Chittagong Hill Tracts From Past to Future: The Case of the Chittagong Hill Tracts
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Scenario 2: Business as Usual Overwhelmed by Global Warming Scenario 2: Business as Usual Overwhelmed by Global Warming
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Conclusion Conclusion
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Further Reading Further Reading
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31 From Past to Future: Prospects for Genocide and Its Avoidance in the Twenty‐First Century
Get accessMark Levene is Reader in Comparative History at Southampton University. He is involved in a four‐volume project on Genocide in the Age of the Nation‐State, vols. 1 and 2 of which were published in 2005. Much of his current work is about the relationship between rapid anthropogenic climate change and violence. See Crisis Forum, http://www.crisis‐forum.org.uk, and the Rescue!History network, http://rescue‐history‐from‐climate‐change.org/indexClassic.php, of which he is founder.
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Published:18 September 2012
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Abstract
This article presents two scenarios that might have a huge influence for the prospects of genocide in the future: the carrying capacity of the planet and global warming. The key point about the pursuit of this theme is that the disruptive potential of climate change, whether writ small in terms of the single state, or writ large in terms of the international system, is entirely exponential. It also hints the necessity for a paradigmatic shift in the relationship not only to each other but to the precious planet if people are to avoid not simply genocide but omnicide. For those who would seek to avoid genocide in the twenty-first century, the task cannot somehow be reduced to Lemkin's law. The phenomenon cannot be contained within this box: it is too fundamental a by-product of a more general dysfunction, not to say, even as it transmutes into persistent post-genocide.
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