
Contents
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47.1 Introduction 47.1 Introduction
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47.2 The Economics of a Demographic Dividend 47.2 The Economics of a Demographic Dividend
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47.3 The Prospects for a Demographic Dividend in Africa 47.3 The Prospects for a Demographic Dividend in Africa
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47.3.1 Trends in the emergence of the demographic dividend in Africa 47.3.1 Trends in the emergence of the demographic dividend in Africa
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47.3.2 Africa and the preconditions for fertility decline 47.3.2 Africa and the preconditions for fertility decline
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47.3.2.1 Mortality decline as a precondition for fertility decline 47.3.2.1 Mortality decline as a precondition for fertility decline
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47.3.3 Other reasons for cautious optimism 47.3.3 Other reasons for cautious optimism
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47.3.3.1 The African advantage in timing 47.3.3.1 The African advantage in timing
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47.3.3.2 The counter-intuitive fact of pre-decline increases in fertility 47.3.3.2 The counter-intuitive fact of pre-decline increases in fertility
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47.3.3.3 Magnifying the demographic dividend: Africa’s relative advantage 47.3.3.3 Magnifying the demographic dividend: Africa’s relative advantage
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47.4 Concluding Remarks 47.4 Concluding Remarks
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Acknowledgments Acknowledgments
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References References
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47 The Prospects for an Imminent Demographic Dividend in Africa: The Case for Cautious Optimism
Get accessAlaka M. Basu, Senior Fellow, United Nations Foundation, Washington, DC and Professor, Development Sociology, Cornell University.
Kaushik Basu, Chief Economist and Senior Vice-President, The World Bank and Professor, Economics, Cornell University.
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Published:02 September 2014
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Abstract
This chapter looks at the prospects of a demographic dividend in Africa in the near future. Fertility declines that change population age structures and dependency ratios have been slow to begin, as well as the fact that there are many underlying features of Africa today which might hasten the process. These have to do with some of the preconditions under which fertility fell in other parts of the world, but the global world today is again interested in working towards investments in voluntary family planning. These conditions are conducive to faster fertility decline than in the past, and with the possibility that right policies could allow the region to exploit this demographic window of opportunity. We also comment on some of the economic implications of a demographic dividend in Africa, including the economic impact of a relatively larger labor force may be enhanced because of the historical and cultural acceptance of women in the labor force.
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