
Contents
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Introduction Introduction
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Current Ability Requirements of the US Workforce Current Ability Requirements of the US Workforce
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IT Capabilities in the Current Research Literature IT Capabilities in the Current Research Literature
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IT Language Capabilities IT Language Capabilities
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IT Reasoning Capabilities IT Reasoning Capabilities
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IT Vision Capabilities IT Vision Capabilities
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IT Movement Capabilities IT Movement Capabilities
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Employment Implications of IT Capabilities in the Research Literature Employment Implications of IT Capabilities in the Research Literature
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Conclusion Conclusion
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Acknowledgements Acknowledgements
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References References
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26 Projecting the Impact of Information Technology on Work and Skills in the 2030s
Get accessStuart W. Elliott PhD is an analyst in the Directorate of Education and Skills at the OECD. For ten years he directed the Board on Testing and Assessment of the National Research Council in the United States, leading numerous studies on educational tests and indicators, assessment of science and twenty-first-century skills, applications of information technology, and occupational preparation and certification.
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Published:06 March 2017
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Abstract
The research literature in computer science provides a way of understanding the growing capabilities of information technology (IT) and anticipating their future effect on work and skills. This chapter reviews a set of recent computer science articles to identify the IT capabilities that have been demonstrated in research settings. These capabilities are compared to information on occupational ability requirements to identify occupations that are potentially vulnerable to displacement as demonstrated IT capabilities are refined and applied over the next couple decades. The chapter’s preliminary analysis suggests that occupations representing 82 percent of current employment will be potentially vulnerable to displacement by IT in the near future. More rigorous versions of the chapter’s preliminary analysis should be carried out once or twice each decade to track the further development of IT capabilities and regularly update our understanding of their likely consequences for work and skills.
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