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Keywords: likelihood ratio
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Journal Article
Identification and Inference in First-Price Auctions with Risk-Averse Bidders and Selective Entry
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Xiaohong Chen and others
The Review of Economic Studies, rdaf016, https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdaf016
Published: 21 March 2025
... Parameter-dependent support MPEC Flexible parametric form Approximate profile likelihood-ratio Bayes credible sets Frequentist confidence sets Risk aversion and entry are both important considerations in real-world auction markets. Unfortunately, the interaction between these factors also raises...
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Forensic comparison analysis of smokeless powders by gel permeation chromatography and likelihood ratio evaluation methods
Hongling Guo and others
Forensic Sciences Research, owaf005, https://doi.org/10.1093/fsr/owaf005
Published: 06 February 2025
...-average molecular weights (Mn), and PDI value of 79 propellants samples from different sources were measured by gel permeation chromatography, and likelihood ratio evaluation method was applied to facilitate interpretation of the data. The possibility of using these methods to make comparisons between...
Journal Article
I have a question about evaluative reporting: a comprehensive collection of FAQs
Ronald Brent Ostrum
Forensic Sciences Research, Volume 9, Issue 4, December 2024, owae062, https://doi.org/10.1093/fsr/owae062
Published: 23 September 2024
...Ronald Brent Ostrum Abstract With various calls in the forensic scientific literature for pattern-matching disciplines to adopt evaluative reporting, which is also known as the likelihood ratio or logical approach, practitioners used to reporting evidence under a more traditional paradigm may have...
Journal Article
The maximally selected likelihood ratio test in random coefficient models
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Lajos Horváth and others
The Econometrics Journal, Volume 27, Issue 3, September 2024, Pages 384–411, https://doi.org/10.1093/ectj/utae013
Published: 25 May 2024
... of cumulative sum-based change-point tests in the context of a random coefficient autoregressive model of order 1. In the current paper, we complement the results in that contribution by studying the (maximally selected) likelihood ratio statistic. We show that this has power versus breaks occurring even...
Journal Article
Universal Neyman–Pearson classification with a partially known hypothesis
Parham Boroumand and Albert Guillén i Fàbregas
Information and Inference: A Journal of the IMA, Volume 13, Issue 2, June 2024, iaae010, https://doi.org/10.1093/imaiai/iaae010
Published: 03 May 2024
...Parham Boroumand; Albert Guillén i Fàbregas (2.3) where . It is well known that likelihood ratio test defined as (2.4) attains the optimal tradeoff ( 2.3 ) for every . This is the well-known Neyman–Pearson lemma [ 30 ]. The likelihood ratio test can also be expressed as a function of the type...
Journal Article
Bi-Gaussianized calibration of likelihood ratios
Geoffrey Stewart Morrison
Law, Probability and Risk, Volume 23, Issue 1, 2024, mgae004, https://doi.org/10.1093/lpr/mgae004
Published: 11 April 2024
...Geoffrey Stewart Morrison Figure 2. (a) Different-source and same-source Gaussian distributions with, μ d = - 4.5 , μ s = 4.5 , σ = 3 . (b) Log-likelihood-ratio-to-log-likelihood-ratio mapping function corresponding to (a). (c) Different-source and same...
Journal Article
Bayesian reasoning and the prior in court: not legally normative but unavoidable
Ronald Meester and Lonneke Stevens
Law, Probability and Risk, Volume 23, Issue 1, 2024, mgae001, https://doi.org/10.1093/lpr/mgae001
Published: 18 March 2024
... problematic part of Bayesian reasoning. We explain that attempts to numerically express the prior fail in general, but also that a prior is necessary and cannot be dispensed with. Indeed, we explain in detail why decision-making should not be based on likelihood ratios alone. We next discuss two of the most...
Journal Article
Inferring a directed acyclic graph of phenotypes from GWAS summary statistics
Rachel Zilinskas and others
in
Biometrics
Biometrics, Volume 80, Issue 1, March 2024, ujad039, https://doi.org/10.1093/biomtc/ujad039
Published: 12 March 2024
... to summary statistics from a genome-wide association study (GWAS) and a reference panel of genotype data. Besides estimation, a distinct feature of the method is its summary statistics-based likelihood ratio test on directed edges. We applied our method to estimate a causal network of 29 cardiovascular...
Journal Article
PACMAN: PAC-style bounds accounting for the Mismatch between Accuracy and Negative log-loss
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Matias Vera and others
Information and Inference: A Journal of the IMA, Volume 13, Issue 1, March 2024, iaae002, https://doi.org/10.1093/imaiai/iaae002
Published: 10 February 2024
... the generalization gap considering the mismatch of testing on the accuracy metric and training on the negative log-loss, referred to as PACMAN. Building on the fact that the resulting mismatch can be written as a likelihood ratio, concentration inequalities can be used to obtain insights into the generalization gap...
Journal Article
Research on likelihood ratio evaluation method of fingerprint evidence based on parameter estimation method
Kang Li and others
Forensic Sciences Research, Volume 9, Issue 1, March 2024, owae002, https://doi.org/10.1093/fsr/owae002
Published: 11 January 2024
... forensic scientists, forensic statisticians, lawyers, judges, and prosecutors, are considering the statistical model based on the likelihood ratio (LR) method as one of the most accurate and logical frameworks for assessing forensic evidence [ 19–22 ]. LR is a statistical method used to weigh the probative...
Journal Article
Likelihood-based inference under nonconvex boundary constraints
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J Y Wang and others
in
Biometrika
Biometrika, Volume 111, Issue 2, June 2024, Pages 591–607, https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/asad062
Published: 19 October 2023
.... In this paper, we establish large-sample properties of the maximum likelihood estimator when the true parameter value lies at the boundary of a nonconvex parameter space. We further derive the asymptotic distribution of the likelihood ratio test statistic under nonconvex constraints on model parameters...
Journal Article
An anomaly arising in the analysis of processes with more than one source of variability
H S Battey and Peter McCullagh
in
Biometrika
Biometrika, Volume 111, Issue 2, June 2024, Pages 677–689, https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/asad044
Published: 18 July 2023
... elaborate forms of blocking in an experimental context, or models for longitudinal or clustered data. The salient point, echoing Dickey (2020) , is that a suitable likelihood-ratio test should always be used for the assessment of variance components. Components of variance Likelihood ratio Nuisance...
Journal Article
From specific-source feature-based to common-source score-based likelihood-ratio systems: ranking the stars
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Peter Vergeer
Law, Probability and Risk, Volume 22, Issue 1, 2023, mgad005, https://doi.org/10.1093/lpr/mgad005
Published: 12 May 2023
... t 2 have a common, unknown source, or whether they have different sources. This article studies expected performance and practical feasibility of the most commonly used classes of source-level likelihood-ratio (LR) systems when applied to a trace–reference comparison problem. The article...
Journal Article
Inferring Balancing Selection From Genome-Scale Data
Bárbara D Bitarello and others
Genome Biology and Evolution, Volume 15, Issue 3, March 2023, evad032, https://doi.org/10.1093/gbe/evad032
Published: 23 February 2023
... in the identification of new targets and the quantification of the prevalence of balancing selection, thus enhancing our understanding of its role in natural populations. natural selection population genomics summary statistics composite likelihood ratio tests genetic variation heterozygote advantage São Paulo...
Journal Article
Sampling distribution for single-regression Granger causality estimators
A J Gutknecht and L Barnett
in
Biometrika
Biometrika, Volume 110, Issue 4, December 2023, Pages 933–952, https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/asad009
Published: 14 February 2023
... Geweke introduced the standard vector-autoregressive, var , formalism, and the Granger–Geweke population loglikelihood ratio statistic ( Geweke, 1982 , 1984 ). As well as furnishing a likelihood ratio test for statistical significance, the statistic has been shown to have an intuitive...
Journal Article
Martingale product estimators for sensitivity analysis in computational statistical physics
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Petr Plecháč and others
IMA Journal of Numerical Analysis, Volume 43, Issue 6, November 2023, Pages 3430–3477, https://doi.org/10.1093/imanum/drac073
Published: 19 December 2022
... the likelihood ratio approach and formulate the linear response as a product of two martingales, hence the name ‘martingale product estimators’. We present a systematic derivation of the martingale product estimator, and show how to construct such estimator so that its bias is consistent with the weak order...
Journal Article
Two-locus identity coefficients in pedigrees
Magnus Dehli Vigeland
G3 Genes|Genomes|Genetics, Volume 13, Issue 2, February 2023, jkac326, https://doi.org/10.1093/g3journal/jkac326
Published: 16 December 2022
..., concerning the expected likelihood ratio in forensic kinship testing, and variances in realized relatedness. pairwise relatedness identity-by-descent identity coefficients kinship pedigree analysis two-locus coefficients expected likelihood ratio realized relatedness linkage Norwegian Research...
Journal Article
Likelihood ratio to evaluate handwriting evidence using similarity index
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Jȩdrzej Wydra and Szymon Matuszewski
Law, Probability and Risk, Volume 21, Issue 1, March 2022, Pages 21–42, https://doi.org/10.1093/lpr/mgac013
Published: 28 November 2022
...Jȩdrzej Wydra; Szymon Matuszewski Email: [email protected] 14 11 2022 We have chosen to use beta probability distribution to calculate probabilities for both the numerator and the denominator of our likelihood ratio because the support of this distribution is an interval [ 0 , 1...
Journal Article
Empirical Likelihood-Based Inference for Functional Means with Application to Wearable Device Data
Hsin-wen Chang and Ian W. McKeague
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B: Statistical Methodology, Volume 84, Issue 5, November 2022, Pages 1947–1968, https://doi.org/10.1111/rssb.12543
Published: 16 November 2022
... into discrete categories. Motivated by certain features of these curves, we introduce a powerful likelihood ratio approach to construct confidence bands and compare functional means. Notably, our approach allows discontinuities in the functional covariances while accommodating discretization of the observed...
Journal Article
Asynchronous Functional Linear Regression Models for Longitudinal Data in Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space
Ting Li and others
in
Biometrics
Biometrics, Volume 79, Issue 3, September 2023, Pages 1880–1895, https://doi.org/10.1111/biom.13767
Published: 07 October 2022
... and derive its representer theorem. The rate of convergence, a Bahadur representation, and the asymptotic pointwise distribution of the functional estimator are obtained under the reproducing kernel Hilbert space framework. We propose a penalized likelihood ratio test to test the nullity of the functional...
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