
Contents
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The Link between Cyberspace and Conflict The Link between Cyberspace and Conflict
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Cross-Domain Escalation Pathways Cross-Domain Escalation Pathways
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How Vulnerable Are Weapon Systems to Cyber Operations? How Vulnerable Are Weapon Systems to Cyber Operations?
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Cyber Scholarship on Cross-Domain Escalation Cyber Scholarship on Cross-Domain Escalation
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Cyber threats to nuclear capabilities Cyber threats to nuclear capabilities
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Cyber threats to conventional capabilities Cyber threats to conventional capabilities
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Reframing Cyber Causes of Cross-Domain Escalation Reframing Cyber Causes of Cross-Domain Escalation
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Cyber Operations and Escalation to War Cyber Operations and Escalation to War
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Cyber Operations and Escalation during War Cyber Operations and Escalation during War
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The cyber dimensions of wartime escalation The cyber dimensions of wartime escalation
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Conclusion Conclusion
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7 Plausible Escalation Scenarios for the Future: Cyber Operations in a Warfighting Context
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Published:March 2023
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Abstract
While this book is predominantly focused on the lack of cyber escalation, there is a narrow set of plausible circumstances under which cyber operations could be more likely to exacerbate relations between rivals. Chapter 7 draws on arguments in the literature on inadvertent escalation, particularly the concepts of windows of vulnerability and first strike incentives, and the interdependence of cyberspace with kinetic capabilities to identify specific scenarios that could result in escalation. Specifically, the chapter argues that cyber escalation risks are most salient when cyber operations have an effect on a state’s warfighting capabilities—especially during the course of conflict. In other words, escalation is most likely to take place not through the independent employment of cyber power but, rather, when cyber operations are perceived to affect the use of kinetic military capabilities. The analysis in this chapter is hypothetical, based on scenarios that could conceivably take place between rival states but which have not yet occurred, with a focus on the unintended consequences of perceptions and misperceptions surrounding strategies for force employment and the implications of offensive cyber operations. That said, the highly contingent nature of these scenarios—coupled with the difficulties of cyber operations and their limited effects—strongly suggests caution about drawing overly pessimistic assessments about escalation risks from these scenarios. However, systematically assessing plausible use cases is important for policymaking, especially given their potential consequences.
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