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Several authors have mentioned the importance of allowing for the susceptible proportion of the population. This seems to me especially difficult to estimate, especially at a local, that is, spatially disaggregated, level. Firstly, while we do know local vaccination numbers, accurate estimation of asymptomatic or mildly asymptomatic case-numbers is problematic, even with the availability of data from high-quality randomised prevalence surveys such as the REACT study (Riley et al., 2021). Secondly, susceptibility is not even a binary value.

Reference

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© 2022 The Author. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society) published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Royal Statistical Society
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. The moral rights of the named author(s) have been asserted.
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