
Joseph Stiglitz (ed.)
et al.
Published online:
19 November 2015
Published in print:
27 December 2011
Online ISBN:
9780231527866
Print ISBN:
9780231143653
Contents
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The Data Show no Long-Term Uptrend in Real Home Prices The Data Show no Long-Term Uptrend in Real Home Prices
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Accounting for the Current Boom: A Historical Comparison Accounting for the Current Boom: A Historical Comparison
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Recession: The Only Way the Current Boom can End? Not Necessarily Recession: The Only Way the Current Boom can End? Not Necessarily
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Real Rents, The Rent-Price Ratio, and Real Interest Rates Real Rents, The Rent-Price Ratio, and Real Interest Rates
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In Theory, Real Rents and Real Home Prices Might be Expected to Track Each Other In Theory, Real Rents and Real Home Prices Might be Expected to Track Each Other
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The Character of the Current Boom: A Glamour City Boom More than a Land Boom The Character of the Current Boom: A Glamour City Boom More than a Land Boom
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A “Soft Landing” After All? The Safety-Valve Hypothesis A “Soft Landing” After All? The Safety-Valve Hypothesis
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Fads can Fade Fast Fads can Fade Fast
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With the Housing Market Riskier than it Seems, Hedging Instruments are Invaluable With the Housing Market Riskier than it Seems, Hedging Instruments are Invaluable
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References and Further Reading References and Further Reading
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Chapter
33 Long-Term Perspectives on the Current Boom in Home Prices
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Pages
269–287
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Published:December 2011
Cite
Shiller, Robert J., 'Long-Term Perspectives on the Current Boom in Home Prices', in Joseph Stiglitz, Aaron Edlin, and J. Bradford DeLong (eds), The Economists' Voice: Top Economists Take On Today's Problems (New York, NY , 2011; online edn, Columbia Scholarship Online, 19 Nov. 2015), https://doi.org/10.7312/columbia/9780231143653.003.0033, accessed 7 May 2025.
Abstract
This chapter addresses some common questions from homeowners: Is the current boom in home prices temporary? Is a crash possible? And if prices do fall, will they come back up fairly soon, or will they stay down for many years? It considers very long-term data in home prices in various countries. It shows that there is no long-term upward trend in real (inflation-adjusted) home prices. The recent run-up in prices is a bubble, and the only question is whether it will end with a soft landing or, on the contrary, with a sharp correction. With such a large degree of irrational overpricing, a sharp fall in prices is more likely.
Subject
Public Economics
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