
Contents
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Conceptions of Party Identification Conceptions of Party Identification
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The Potential for Presidential Influence The Potential for Presidential Influence
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Presidents and Partisan Change Presidents and Partisan Change
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Presidential Approval and Individual Partisanship Presidential Approval and Individual Partisanship
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Changes in Party Identification during a Campaign Changes in Party Identification during a Campaign
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Macropartisanship Macropartisanship
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Conclusion Conclusion
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Six Party Identification I: Partisan Change
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Published:February 2019
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Abstract
This chapter reviews theories of party identification to assess the president’s potential for influencing partisan attachments. It provides evidence that popular assessments of the president’s performance influence both individual and mass partisanship, but when reactions to a president push individual party identification or the aggregate partisan balance out of its long-term equilibrium, the change is usually temporary and reversible, in part because presidential approval rises and falls, sometimes dramatically, over the course of a presidency. Such effects are not inconsequential, for even a temporary shift in mass partisanship that coincides with an election can have a substantial effect on party fortunes. Moreover, although mass party identification fluctuates around a stable equilibrium for long periods of time, the equilibrium is not immutable; the Reagan presidency prompted a durable shift in the partisan balance in the Republicans’ favor.
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