
Contents
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
3.1 Introduction 3.1 Introduction
-
3.2 AI and Prediction Costs 3.2 AI and Prediction Costs
-
3.3 Case: Radiology 3.3 Case: Radiology
-
3.4 Baseline Model 3.4 Baseline Model
-
3.4.1 Judgment in the Absence of Prediction 3.4.1 Judgment in the Absence of Prediction
-
3.4.2 Prediction in the Absence of Judgment 3.4.2 Prediction in the Absence of Judgment
-
3.4.3 Prediction and Judgment Together 3.4.3 Prediction and Judgment Together
-
3.4.4 Complements or Substitutes? 3.4.4 Complements or Substitutes?
-
-
3.5 Complexity 3.5 Complexity
-
3.5.1 Automation 3.5.1 Automation
-
3.5.2 Contracting 3.5.2 Contracting
-
3.5.3 Firm Boundaries 3.5.3 Firm Boundaries
-
-
3.6 Conclusions 3.6 Conclusions
-
References References
-
Comment: Andrea Prat Comment: Andrea Prat
-
References References
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
3 Prediction, Judgment, and Complexity: A Theory of Decision-Making and Artificial Intelligence
Get access-
Published:May 2019
Cite
Abstract
We interpret recent developments in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) as improvements in prediction technology. In this paper, we explore the consequences of improved prediction in decision-making. To do so, we adapt existing models of decision-making under uncertainty to account for the process of determining payoffs. We label this process of determining the payoffs 'judgment.' There is a risky action, whose payoff depends on the state, and a safe action with the same payoff in every state. Judgment is costly; for each potential state, it requires thought on what the payoff might be. Prediction and judgment are complements as long as judgment is not too difficult. We show that in complex environments with a large number of potential states, the effect of improvements in prediction on the importance of judgment depend a great deal on whether the improvements in prediction enable automated decision-making. We discuss the implications of improved prediction in the face of complexity for automation, contracts, and firm boundaries.
Sign in
Personal account
- Sign in with email/username & password
- Get email alerts
- Save searches
- Purchase content
- Activate your purchase/trial code
- Add your ORCID iD
Purchase
Our books are available by subscription or purchase to libraries and institutions.
Purchasing informationMonth: | Total Views: |
---|---|
November 2022 | 4 |
December 2022 | 4 |
January 2023 | 3 |
February 2023 | 5 |
March 2023 | 3 |
April 2023 | 2 |
May 2023 | 5 |
June 2023 | 5 |
July 2023 | 3 |
August 2023 | 1 |
October 2023 | 3 |
November 2023 | 4 |
December 2023 | 5 |
January 2024 | 2 |
February 2024 | 7 |
March 2024 | 8 |
April 2024 | 4 |
May 2024 | 1 |
June 2024 | 3 |
July 2024 | 2 |
August 2024 | 8 |
September 2024 | 4 |
October 2024 | 2 |
January 2025 | 2 |
March 2025 | 6 |
April 2025 | 5 |
Get help with access
Institutional access
Access to content on Oxford Academic is often provided through institutional subscriptions and purchases. If you are a member of an institution with an active account, you may be able to access content in one of the following ways:
IP based access
Typically, access is provided across an institutional network to a range of IP addresses. This authentication occurs automatically, and it is not possible to sign out of an IP authenticated account.
Sign in through your institution
Choose this option to get remote access when outside your institution. Shibboleth/Open Athens technology is used to provide single sign-on between your institution’s website and Oxford Academic.
If your institution is not listed or you cannot sign in to your institution’s website, please contact your librarian or administrator.
Sign in with a library card
Enter your library card number to sign in. If you cannot sign in, please contact your librarian.
Society Members
Society member access to a journal is achieved in one of the following ways:
Sign in through society site
Many societies offer single sign-on between the society website and Oxford Academic. If you see ‘Sign in through society site’ in the sign in pane within a journal:
If you do not have a society account or have forgotten your username or password, please contact your society.
Sign in using a personal account
Some societies use Oxford Academic personal accounts to provide access to their members. See below.
Personal account
A personal account can be used to get email alerts, save searches, purchase content, and activate subscriptions.
Some societies use Oxford Academic personal accounts to provide access to their members.
Viewing your signed in accounts
Click the account icon in the top right to:
Signed in but can't access content
Oxford Academic is home to a wide variety of products. The institutional subscription may not cover the content that you are trying to access. If you believe you should have access to that content, please contact your librarian.
Institutional account management
For librarians and administrators, your personal account also provides access to institutional account management. Here you will find options to view and activate subscriptions, manage institutional settings and access options, access usage statistics, and more.