Abstract

Background

Recent evidence suggests a survival advantage after breast-conserving surgery compared with mastectomy. Previous studies have compared survival outcomes after standard breast-conserving surgery, but no studies have compared survival outcomes after oncoplastic breast-conserving surgery. The aim of this study was to compare survival outcomes after breast-conserving surgery + radiotherapy (and an oncoplastic breast-conserving surgery + radiotherapy subgroup) with those after mastectomy ± radiotherapy.

Methods

Patients diagnosed with primary invasive breast cancer between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2019 were identified from a prospectively maintained National Cancer Registry. Overall survival and breast cancer-specific survival outcomes were analysed using Kaplan–Meier analysis and Cox regression analysis adjusting for patient demographics, tumour characteristics, and treatment adjuncts.

Results

A total of 14 182 patients were eligible (8537 patients underwent standard breast-conserving surgery + radiotherapy, 360 patients underwent oncoplastic breast-conserving surgery + radiotherapy, 2953 patients underwent mastectomy + radiotherapy, and 2332 patients underwent mastectomy − radiotherapy). The median follow-up was 7.27 (range 0.2–13.6) years. Superior 10-year survival was observed after breast-conserving surgery + radiotherapy (overall survival: 81.2%; breast cancer-specific survival: 93.3%) compared with mastectomy + radiotherapy (overall survival: 63.4%; breast cancer-specific survival: 75.9%) and mastectomy − radiotherapy (overall survival: 63.1%; breast cancer-specific survival: 87.5%). Ten-year overall survival and breast cancer-specific survival after oncoplastic breast-conserving surgery + radiotherapy were 86.1% and 90.2% respectively. After adjusted analysis, breast-conserving surgery + radiotherapy was associated with superior survival outcomes compared with mastectomy + radiotherapy (overall survival: HR 1.34 (95% c.i. 1.20 to 1.51); breast cancer-specific survival: HR 1.62 (95% c.i. 1.38 to 1.90)) and mastectomy − radiotherapy (overall survival: HR 1.57 (95% c.i. 1.41 to 1.75); breast cancer-specific survival: HR 1.70 (95% c.i. 1.41 to 2.05)). Similar survival outcomes were observed amongst patients treated with oncoplastic breast-conserving surgery + radiotherapy compared with mastectomy + radiotherapy (overall survival: HR 1.72 (95% c.i. 1.62 to 2.55); breast cancer-specific survival: HR 1.74 (95% c.i. 1.06 to 2.86)) and mastectomy − radiotherapy (overall survival: HR 2.21 (95% c.i. 1.49 to 3.27); breast cancer-specific survival: HR 1.89 (95% c.i. 1.13 to 3.14)).

Conclusion

Breast-conserving surgery + radiotherapy and oncoplastic breast-conserving surgery + radiotherapy are associated with superior overall survival and breast cancer-specific survival compared with mastectomy ± radiotherapy. The findings should inform discussion of surgical treatment options for patients with breast cancer.

Introduction

Breast cancer affects one in seven UK women1, with surgical intervention the mainstay of treatment. Historically, women underwent radical mastectomy (Mx) regardless of tumour extent or size. Pioneering work in the 1970s shifted the paradigm towards a more conservative approach2,3, with large randomized clinical trials (RCTs) demonstrating comparable long-term survival outcomes after breast-conserving surgery (BCS) + radiotherapy (RTx) compared with Mx4–6. More recent reviews suggest BCS + RTx is associated with superior overall survival (OS) and breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS)7–9, with survival benefit maintained after adjustment for tumour biology, cancer staging, socio-economic status, and co-morbidities10–13.

Most previously published studies only include T1–T2 cancers and provide no information regarding oncoplastic breast-conserving surgery (OBCS), which has become the standard of care, blending oncological and plastic surgical techniques to improve long-term aesthetic outcomes and quality of life14. OBCS shifts BCS towards larger tumours, enabling a subgroup of patients who would have previously been selected for Mx to avoid removal of the entire breast. Breast cancers detected through screening are associated with a better prognosis12,15, but few studies assessing survival outcomes have taken account of the mode of patient referral (screening or symptomatic). Furthermore, various cancer registries report differing effects of breast conservation upon prognoses. In the absence of an existing UK-based population study, it is important to investigate whether BCS has a similar survival advantage in Scotland.

The primary aim of this study was to evaluate and compare survival outcomes after BCS + RTx and Mx ± RTx in the West of Scotland population, taking account of the mode of patient referral, as well as other demographic and prognostic factors. The secondary aim of this study was to provide additional understanding of the survival outcomes after OBCS + RTx.

Methods

Study design

Population

The population consisted of all patients diagnosed with breast cancer in the West of Scotland over a 10-year interval (between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2019).

Data collection

Prospective data for all patients diagnosed with breast cancer in the West of Scotland are collected by clinical audit facilitators from each NHS Scotland health board. Data are entered locally into the electronic Cancer Audit Support Environment (eCASE) National Cancer Registry, which is managed by the West of Scotland Cancer Network (WoSCAN). WoSCAN is a collaborative of four NHS health boards (NHS Ayrshire & Arran, NHS Forth Valley, NHS Greater Glasgow & Clyde, and NHS Lanarkshire).

In addition to patient demographics, data collected include date of diagnosis, whether the cancer was detected through screening or symptomatic (mode of referral), laterality, clinical staging at presentation, histopathology and tumour biology, date and type of surgery, and any treatment adjuncts received16.

Type of surgery was recorded as standard BCS (sBCS), OBCS, or Mx with or without immediate breast reconstruction. OBCS, defined by the operating surgeon, was collected as a separate surgical code from 2014. OBCS procedures were exclusively level two procedures, according to Clough et al.17, with tumour size requiring resection of more than 20% of the total breast volume. Procedures included therapeutic mammoplasty or mastopexy and chest wall perforator flap partial breast reconstruction. An additional 65 OBCS procedures carried out between 2010 and 2014 were taken from a separate prospectively collected regional database and added to the main database manually. The patients who underwent OBCS were included in the breast conservation group (BCS + RTx) to address the primary outcome and, to address the secondary outcome, involving the analysis of survival outcomes after OBCS + RTx, patients who underwent sBCS were excluded. Mx with immediate breast reconstruction was collected as a separate surgical code from 2012. These patients were included in the Mx group (Mx ± RTx). Data for RTx site(s) and dosage were not sufficiently available and therefore adjuvant RTx was treated as a binary variable (yes/no).

In the WoSCAN database, clinical and pathological staging are recorded according to the AJCC’s TNM classification of malignant tumours18,19. To assess status variables unaffected by treatment, pretreatment clinical variables (cT and cN) were used in the analysis of patients who received neoadjuvant treatment, whereas histopathological variables were used in the analysis of patients who underwent primary surgery (pT and pN). Similarly, data on tumour biology were based on pretreatment core biopsy and histopathological tumour specimen respectively, unless the test was repeated on the surgical specimen. Oestrogen receptor (ER) status was reported using the Allred system20; scores less than or equal to two were considered negative. Human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 (HER2) amplification was confirmed by an immunohistochemistry (IHC) score of greater than or equal to three or by in situ hybridization, which was performed when the HER2 IHC score was greater than or equal to two. Hormone receptor subgroups were classified as ER+HER2+, ER+HER2−, ER−HER2+, and ER−HER2−. Progesterone receptor (PR) status was not collected before 2016 and so was not included as a variable in the analysis.

Socio-economic deprivation was calculated from each patient’s residential postcode using the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) 2020 (version 2)21. This tool divides Scotland into 6976 data zones, which are then categorized into quintiles, from most deprived (SIMD 1) to least deprived (SIMD 5). Date and cause of death were obtained from the Acute, Cancer, Deaths, and Mental Health (ACaDMe) data mart, part of the NHS National Scotland (NSS) Corporate Data Warehouse. Records were linked using the personal identification (community health index (CHI)) numbers assigned to all Scottish residents.

Inclusion criteria

Inclusion criteria were: primary invasive breast cancer diagnosed between 2010 and 2019; and patients treated with BCS + RT, Mx + RTx, or Mx − RTx.

Exclusion criteria

Exclusion criteria were: in situ disease or unknown tumour subtype; stage IV disease (‘any surgical intervention received in this group was considered palliative’) or unknown clinical stage; missing data for type of surgery or adjuvant RTx; patients treated with BCS − RTx; and unknown date of death or date recorded precedes study interval.

Ethical considerations

The Regional Information Government Framework at WoSCAN safeguards sharing of data for clinical audit purposes22. All analysis was performed on pseudonymized data. Principles of Good Clinical Practice and the Declaration of Helsinki were adhered to.

Statistical methods

Start of follow-up was from the date of diagnosis until death or the end of the study interval on 1 August 2023. Death attributable to any cause (all-cause mortality) and death attributed to breast cancer (breast cancer-specific mortality) were assessed. Differences in patient and tumour characteristics between treatment groups were analysed using the chi-squared test. Unadjusted survival proportions were estimated using Kaplan–Meier analysis and compared using the log rank test. OS and BCSS were modelled and adjusted using Cox regression analysis. Associations between treatment groups and survival rates are reported as HR (95% c.i.). All tests were two-sided and P < 0.050 was considered significant. Models were stepwise adjusted for variables, including age at diagnosis, year of diagnosis, mode of referral, socio-economic deprivation, tumour characteristics, clinical staging, and treatment adjuncts. All statistical analysis were carried out using SPSS® (IBM, Armonk, NY, USA; version 29.1; https://www.ibm.com/products/spss-statistics).

Results

A total of 23 275 patients were diagnosed and treated for breast cancer across the West of Scotland between 2010 and 2019; 14 182 patients met the inclusion criteria for the final analysis (Fig. 1).

CONSORT diagram for all breast cancer diagnoses in the West of Scotland between 2010 and 2019
Fig. 1.

CONSORT diagram for all breast cancer diagnoses in the West of Scotland between 2010 and 2019

WoSCAN, West of Scotland Cancer Network.

Some 8897 (62.7%) patients underwent BCS + RTx, 2953 (20.9%) patients underwent Mx + RTx, and 2332 (16.4%) patients underwent Mx − RTx. Amongst the breast conservation group, 8537 (60.2%) patients underwent sBCS + RTx and 360 (2.5%) patients underwent OBCS + RTx. The median follow-up was 7.27 (range 0.2–13.6) years. See Table 1 for patient and tumour characteristics by treatment modality.

Table 1

Patient/tumour characteristics by treatment modality (n = 14 182)

Patient/tumour characteristicTreatment modalityP
sBCS + RTx, 8537 (60.2)OBCS + RTx, 360 (2.5)Mx + RTx, 2953 (20.9)Mx − RTx, 2332 (16.4)Total, n = 14 182
Age at diagnosis (years)<0.001
 <501412 (16.5)118 (32.8)882 (29.9)336 (14.4)2748 (19.3)
 50–695625 (65.9)220 (61.1)1374 (46.5)1045 (44.8)8264 (58.3)
 ≥701500 (17.6)22 (6.1)697 (23.6)951 (40.8)3170 (22.4)
 Median (range)61 (23–92)53 (23–80)57 (25–94)67 (22–96)61 (22–96)
Referral<0.001
 Symptomatic4135 (48.4)237 (65.8)2330 (78.9)1493 (64.0)8195 (57.8)
 Screening3875 (45.4)100 (27.8)394 (13.3)543 (23.3)4912 (34.6)
 Other527 (6.2)23 (6.4)229 (7.8)296 (12.7)1075 (7.6)
Year of diagnosis<0.001
 2010–20111022 (12.0)28 (7.8)423 (14.3)364 (15.6)1837 (13.0)
 2012–20131887 (22.1)39 (10.8)714 (24.2)566 (24.3)3206 (22.6)
 2014–20151908 (22.3)98 (27.2)655 (22.2)542 (23.2)3203 (22.6)
 2016–20171815 (21.3)103 (28.6)595 (20.1)432 (18.5)2945 (20.8)
 2018–20191905 (22.3)92 (25.6)566 (19.2)428 (18.4)2991 (21.1)
SIMD category0.006
 Most affluent1668 (19.6)90 (25.1)569 (19.4)408 (17.5)2735 (19.4)
 Affluent1449 (17.1)64 (17.9)489 (16.7)394 (17.0)2396 (17.0)
 Intermediate1518 (17.9)71 (19.8)505 (17.2)378 (16.3)2472 (17.5)
 Deprived1739 (20.5)64 (17.9)608 (20.7)525 (22.6)2936 (20.8)
 Most deprived2116 (24.9)69 (19.3)763 (26.0)615 (26.5)3563 (25.3)
Bilateral breast cancer<0.001
 No8421 (98.9)354 (98.3)2846 (97.1)2253 (96.9)13 874 (98.2)
 Yes96 (1.1)6 (1.7)86 (2.9)71 (3.1)259 (1.8)
T stage*<0.001
 T15657 (66.3)112 (31.3)462 (16.1)1040 (44.6)7271 (51.6)
 T22704 (31.7)209 (58.4)1578 (54.8)1201 (51.5)5692 (40.3)
 ≥T3171 (2.0)37 (10.3)837 (29.1)90 (3.9)1135 (8.1)
N stage*<0.001
 N06383 (75.0)255 (70.8)654 (22.2)1917 (85.2)9209 (65.5)
 N11867 (21.9)87 (24.2)1704 (58.1)266 (11.8)3924 (27.9)
 N2180 (2.1)13 (3.6)386 (13.2)46 (2.0)625 (4.4)
 N383 (1.0)5 (1.4)191 (6.5)22 (1.0)301 (2.1)
Prognostic stage<0.001
 I5555 (65.1)108 (30.0)408 (13.8)1009 (43.3)7080 (49.9)
 II2791 (32.7)230 (63.9)1856 (62.9)1230 (52.7)6107 (43.1)
 III191 (2.2)22 (6.1)689 (23.3)93 (4.0)995 (7.0)
Histological subtype<0.001
 Ductal7137 (83.6)295 (81.9)2238 (75.8)1775 (76.1)11 445 (80.7)
 Lobular754 (8.8)48 (13.3)507 (17.2)360 (15.4)1669 (11.8)
 Other643 (7.5)17 (4.7)207 (7.0)197 (8.4)1064 (7.5)
Tumour grade<0.001
 11287 (15.3)22 (6.3)114 (4.1)218 (9.5)1641 (11.8)
 24035 (47.9)159 (45.3)1211 (43.3)1123 (48.8)6528 (47.1)
 33095 (36.8)170 (48.4)1473 (52.6)959 (41.7)5697 (41.1)
Subtype<0.001
 ER+HER2−6157 (72.1)231 (64.2)1763 (59.7)1503 (64.5)9654 (68.1)
 ER+HER2+696 (8.2)52 (14.4)401 (13.6)213 (9.1)1362 (9.6)
 ER−HER2+274 (3.2)15 (4.2)207 (7.0)113 (4.8)609 (4.3)
 ER−HER2−592 (6.9)18 (5.0)254 (8.6)190 (8.1)1054 (7.4)
 Inconclusive818 (9.6)44 (12.2)328 (11.1)313 (13.4)1503 (10.6)
Chemotherapy<0.001
 No5548 (65.0)147 (40.8)863 (29.2)1767 (75.8)8325 (58.7)
 Yes2989 (35.0)213 (59.2)2090 (70.8)565 (24.2)5857 (41.3)
Biological therapy<0.001
 No7681 (90.0)287 (79.7)2369 (80.2)2116 (90.7)12 453 (87.8)
 Yes856 (10.0)73 (20.3)584 (19.8)216 (9.3)1729 (12.2)
Endocrine therapy<0.001
 No1333 (15.6)61 (16.9)688 (23.3)519 (22.3)2601 (18.3)
 Yes7204 (84.4)299 (83.1)2265 (76.7)1813 (77.7)11 581 (81.7)
Deaths
 Overall1265 (14.8)37 (10.3)926 (31.4)734 (31.5)2962 (20.9)<0.001
 Breast cancer-specific450 (5.3)26 (7.2)604 (20.5)246 (10.5)1326 (9.3)<0.001
Patient/tumour characteristicTreatment modalityP
sBCS + RTx, 8537 (60.2)OBCS + RTx, 360 (2.5)Mx + RTx, 2953 (20.9)Mx − RTx, 2332 (16.4)Total, n = 14 182
Age at diagnosis (years)<0.001
 <501412 (16.5)118 (32.8)882 (29.9)336 (14.4)2748 (19.3)
 50–695625 (65.9)220 (61.1)1374 (46.5)1045 (44.8)8264 (58.3)
 ≥701500 (17.6)22 (6.1)697 (23.6)951 (40.8)3170 (22.4)
 Median (range)61 (23–92)53 (23–80)57 (25–94)67 (22–96)61 (22–96)
Referral<0.001
 Symptomatic4135 (48.4)237 (65.8)2330 (78.9)1493 (64.0)8195 (57.8)
 Screening3875 (45.4)100 (27.8)394 (13.3)543 (23.3)4912 (34.6)
 Other527 (6.2)23 (6.4)229 (7.8)296 (12.7)1075 (7.6)
Year of diagnosis<0.001
 2010–20111022 (12.0)28 (7.8)423 (14.3)364 (15.6)1837 (13.0)
 2012–20131887 (22.1)39 (10.8)714 (24.2)566 (24.3)3206 (22.6)
 2014–20151908 (22.3)98 (27.2)655 (22.2)542 (23.2)3203 (22.6)
 2016–20171815 (21.3)103 (28.6)595 (20.1)432 (18.5)2945 (20.8)
 2018–20191905 (22.3)92 (25.6)566 (19.2)428 (18.4)2991 (21.1)
SIMD category0.006
 Most affluent1668 (19.6)90 (25.1)569 (19.4)408 (17.5)2735 (19.4)
 Affluent1449 (17.1)64 (17.9)489 (16.7)394 (17.0)2396 (17.0)
 Intermediate1518 (17.9)71 (19.8)505 (17.2)378 (16.3)2472 (17.5)
 Deprived1739 (20.5)64 (17.9)608 (20.7)525 (22.6)2936 (20.8)
 Most deprived2116 (24.9)69 (19.3)763 (26.0)615 (26.5)3563 (25.3)
Bilateral breast cancer<0.001
 No8421 (98.9)354 (98.3)2846 (97.1)2253 (96.9)13 874 (98.2)
 Yes96 (1.1)6 (1.7)86 (2.9)71 (3.1)259 (1.8)
T stage*<0.001
 T15657 (66.3)112 (31.3)462 (16.1)1040 (44.6)7271 (51.6)
 T22704 (31.7)209 (58.4)1578 (54.8)1201 (51.5)5692 (40.3)
 ≥T3171 (2.0)37 (10.3)837 (29.1)90 (3.9)1135 (8.1)
N stage*<0.001
 N06383 (75.0)255 (70.8)654 (22.2)1917 (85.2)9209 (65.5)
 N11867 (21.9)87 (24.2)1704 (58.1)266 (11.8)3924 (27.9)
 N2180 (2.1)13 (3.6)386 (13.2)46 (2.0)625 (4.4)
 N383 (1.0)5 (1.4)191 (6.5)22 (1.0)301 (2.1)
Prognostic stage<0.001
 I5555 (65.1)108 (30.0)408 (13.8)1009 (43.3)7080 (49.9)
 II2791 (32.7)230 (63.9)1856 (62.9)1230 (52.7)6107 (43.1)
 III191 (2.2)22 (6.1)689 (23.3)93 (4.0)995 (7.0)
Histological subtype<0.001
 Ductal7137 (83.6)295 (81.9)2238 (75.8)1775 (76.1)11 445 (80.7)
 Lobular754 (8.8)48 (13.3)507 (17.2)360 (15.4)1669 (11.8)
 Other643 (7.5)17 (4.7)207 (7.0)197 (8.4)1064 (7.5)
Tumour grade<0.001
 11287 (15.3)22 (6.3)114 (4.1)218 (9.5)1641 (11.8)
 24035 (47.9)159 (45.3)1211 (43.3)1123 (48.8)6528 (47.1)
 33095 (36.8)170 (48.4)1473 (52.6)959 (41.7)5697 (41.1)
Subtype<0.001
 ER+HER2−6157 (72.1)231 (64.2)1763 (59.7)1503 (64.5)9654 (68.1)
 ER+HER2+696 (8.2)52 (14.4)401 (13.6)213 (9.1)1362 (9.6)
 ER−HER2+274 (3.2)15 (4.2)207 (7.0)113 (4.8)609 (4.3)
 ER−HER2−592 (6.9)18 (5.0)254 (8.6)190 (8.1)1054 (7.4)
 Inconclusive818 (9.6)44 (12.2)328 (11.1)313 (13.4)1503 (10.6)
Chemotherapy<0.001
 No5548 (65.0)147 (40.8)863 (29.2)1767 (75.8)8325 (58.7)
 Yes2989 (35.0)213 (59.2)2090 (70.8)565 (24.2)5857 (41.3)
Biological therapy<0.001
 No7681 (90.0)287 (79.7)2369 (80.2)2116 (90.7)12 453 (87.8)
 Yes856 (10.0)73 (20.3)584 (19.8)216 (9.3)1729 (12.2)
Endocrine therapy<0.001
 No1333 (15.6)61 (16.9)688 (23.3)519 (22.3)2601 (18.3)
 Yes7204 (84.4)299 (83.1)2265 (76.7)1813 (77.7)11 581 (81.7)
Deaths
 Overall1265 (14.8)37 (10.3)926 (31.4)734 (31.5)2962 (20.9)<0.001
 Breast cancer-specific450 (5.3)26 (7.2)604 (20.5)246 (10.5)1326 (9.3)<0.001

Values are n (%) unless otherwise indicated. *Pathological stage used for primary surgery patients and pretreatment clinical stage used for neoadjuvant chemotherapy patients. sBCS, standard breast-conserving surgery; RTx, radiotherapy; OBCS, oncoplastic breast-conserving surgery; MTx, mastectomy; SMID, Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation; ER, oestrogen receptor; HER2, human epidermal growth factor receptor-2.

Table 1

Patient/tumour characteristics by treatment modality (n = 14 182)

Patient/tumour characteristicTreatment modalityP
sBCS + RTx, 8537 (60.2)OBCS + RTx, 360 (2.5)Mx + RTx, 2953 (20.9)Mx − RTx, 2332 (16.4)Total, n = 14 182
Age at diagnosis (years)<0.001
 <501412 (16.5)118 (32.8)882 (29.9)336 (14.4)2748 (19.3)
 50–695625 (65.9)220 (61.1)1374 (46.5)1045 (44.8)8264 (58.3)
 ≥701500 (17.6)22 (6.1)697 (23.6)951 (40.8)3170 (22.4)
 Median (range)61 (23–92)53 (23–80)57 (25–94)67 (22–96)61 (22–96)
Referral<0.001
 Symptomatic4135 (48.4)237 (65.8)2330 (78.9)1493 (64.0)8195 (57.8)
 Screening3875 (45.4)100 (27.8)394 (13.3)543 (23.3)4912 (34.6)
 Other527 (6.2)23 (6.4)229 (7.8)296 (12.7)1075 (7.6)
Year of diagnosis<0.001
 2010–20111022 (12.0)28 (7.8)423 (14.3)364 (15.6)1837 (13.0)
 2012–20131887 (22.1)39 (10.8)714 (24.2)566 (24.3)3206 (22.6)
 2014–20151908 (22.3)98 (27.2)655 (22.2)542 (23.2)3203 (22.6)
 2016–20171815 (21.3)103 (28.6)595 (20.1)432 (18.5)2945 (20.8)
 2018–20191905 (22.3)92 (25.6)566 (19.2)428 (18.4)2991 (21.1)
SIMD category0.006
 Most affluent1668 (19.6)90 (25.1)569 (19.4)408 (17.5)2735 (19.4)
 Affluent1449 (17.1)64 (17.9)489 (16.7)394 (17.0)2396 (17.0)
 Intermediate1518 (17.9)71 (19.8)505 (17.2)378 (16.3)2472 (17.5)
 Deprived1739 (20.5)64 (17.9)608 (20.7)525 (22.6)2936 (20.8)
 Most deprived2116 (24.9)69 (19.3)763 (26.0)615 (26.5)3563 (25.3)
Bilateral breast cancer<0.001
 No8421 (98.9)354 (98.3)2846 (97.1)2253 (96.9)13 874 (98.2)
 Yes96 (1.1)6 (1.7)86 (2.9)71 (3.1)259 (1.8)
T stage*<0.001
 T15657 (66.3)112 (31.3)462 (16.1)1040 (44.6)7271 (51.6)
 T22704 (31.7)209 (58.4)1578 (54.8)1201 (51.5)5692 (40.3)
 ≥T3171 (2.0)37 (10.3)837 (29.1)90 (3.9)1135 (8.1)
N stage*<0.001
 N06383 (75.0)255 (70.8)654 (22.2)1917 (85.2)9209 (65.5)
 N11867 (21.9)87 (24.2)1704 (58.1)266 (11.8)3924 (27.9)
 N2180 (2.1)13 (3.6)386 (13.2)46 (2.0)625 (4.4)
 N383 (1.0)5 (1.4)191 (6.5)22 (1.0)301 (2.1)
Prognostic stage<0.001
 I5555 (65.1)108 (30.0)408 (13.8)1009 (43.3)7080 (49.9)
 II2791 (32.7)230 (63.9)1856 (62.9)1230 (52.7)6107 (43.1)
 III191 (2.2)22 (6.1)689 (23.3)93 (4.0)995 (7.0)
Histological subtype<0.001
 Ductal7137 (83.6)295 (81.9)2238 (75.8)1775 (76.1)11 445 (80.7)
 Lobular754 (8.8)48 (13.3)507 (17.2)360 (15.4)1669 (11.8)
 Other643 (7.5)17 (4.7)207 (7.0)197 (8.4)1064 (7.5)
Tumour grade<0.001
 11287 (15.3)22 (6.3)114 (4.1)218 (9.5)1641 (11.8)
 24035 (47.9)159 (45.3)1211 (43.3)1123 (48.8)6528 (47.1)
 33095 (36.8)170 (48.4)1473 (52.6)959 (41.7)5697 (41.1)
Subtype<0.001
 ER+HER2−6157 (72.1)231 (64.2)1763 (59.7)1503 (64.5)9654 (68.1)
 ER+HER2+696 (8.2)52 (14.4)401 (13.6)213 (9.1)1362 (9.6)
 ER−HER2+274 (3.2)15 (4.2)207 (7.0)113 (4.8)609 (4.3)
 ER−HER2−592 (6.9)18 (5.0)254 (8.6)190 (8.1)1054 (7.4)
 Inconclusive818 (9.6)44 (12.2)328 (11.1)313 (13.4)1503 (10.6)
Chemotherapy<0.001
 No5548 (65.0)147 (40.8)863 (29.2)1767 (75.8)8325 (58.7)
 Yes2989 (35.0)213 (59.2)2090 (70.8)565 (24.2)5857 (41.3)
Biological therapy<0.001
 No7681 (90.0)287 (79.7)2369 (80.2)2116 (90.7)12 453 (87.8)
 Yes856 (10.0)73 (20.3)584 (19.8)216 (9.3)1729 (12.2)
Endocrine therapy<0.001
 No1333 (15.6)61 (16.9)688 (23.3)519 (22.3)2601 (18.3)
 Yes7204 (84.4)299 (83.1)2265 (76.7)1813 (77.7)11 581 (81.7)
Deaths
 Overall1265 (14.8)37 (10.3)926 (31.4)734 (31.5)2962 (20.9)<0.001
 Breast cancer-specific450 (5.3)26 (7.2)604 (20.5)246 (10.5)1326 (9.3)<0.001
Patient/tumour characteristicTreatment modalityP
sBCS + RTx, 8537 (60.2)OBCS + RTx, 360 (2.5)Mx + RTx, 2953 (20.9)Mx − RTx, 2332 (16.4)Total, n = 14 182
Age at diagnosis (years)<0.001
 <501412 (16.5)118 (32.8)882 (29.9)336 (14.4)2748 (19.3)
 50–695625 (65.9)220 (61.1)1374 (46.5)1045 (44.8)8264 (58.3)
 ≥701500 (17.6)22 (6.1)697 (23.6)951 (40.8)3170 (22.4)
 Median (range)61 (23–92)53 (23–80)57 (25–94)67 (22–96)61 (22–96)
Referral<0.001
 Symptomatic4135 (48.4)237 (65.8)2330 (78.9)1493 (64.0)8195 (57.8)
 Screening3875 (45.4)100 (27.8)394 (13.3)543 (23.3)4912 (34.6)
 Other527 (6.2)23 (6.4)229 (7.8)296 (12.7)1075 (7.6)
Year of diagnosis<0.001
 2010–20111022 (12.0)28 (7.8)423 (14.3)364 (15.6)1837 (13.0)
 2012–20131887 (22.1)39 (10.8)714 (24.2)566 (24.3)3206 (22.6)
 2014–20151908 (22.3)98 (27.2)655 (22.2)542 (23.2)3203 (22.6)
 2016–20171815 (21.3)103 (28.6)595 (20.1)432 (18.5)2945 (20.8)
 2018–20191905 (22.3)92 (25.6)566 (19.2)428 (18.4)2991 (21.1)
SIMD category0.006
 Most affluent1668 (19.6)90 (25.1)569 (19.4)408 (17.5)2735 (19.4)
 Affluent1449 (17.1)64 (17.9)489 (16.7)394 (17.0)2396 (17.0)
 Intermediate1518 (17.9)71 (19.8)505 (17.2)378 (16.3)2472 (17.5)
 Deprived1739 (20.5)64 (17.9)608 (20.7)525 (22.6)2936 (20.8)
 Most deprived2116 (24.9)69 (19.3)763 (26.0)615 (26.5)3563 (25.3)
Bilateral breast cancer<0.001
 No8421 (98.9)354 (98.3)2846 (97.1)2253 (96.9)13 874 (98.2)
 Yes96 (1.1)6 (1.7)86 (2.9)71 (3.1)259 (1.8)
T stage*<0.001
 T15657 (66.3)112 (31.3)462 (16.1)1040 (44.6)7271 (51.6)
 T22704 (31.7)209 (58.4)1578 (54.8)1201 (51.5)5692 (40.3)
 ≥T3171 (2.0)37 (10.3)837 (29.1)90 (3.9)1135 (8.1)
N stage*<0.001
 N06383 (75.0)255 (70.8)654 (22.2)1917 (85.2)9209 (65.5)
 N11867 (21.9)87 (24.2)1704 (58.1)266 (11.8)3924 (27.9)
 N2180 (2.1)13 (3.6)386 (13.2)46 (2.0)625 (4.4)
 N383 (1.0)5 (1.4)191 (6.5)22 (1.0)301 (2.1)
Prognostic stage<0.001
 I5555 (65.1)108 (30.0)408 (13.8)1009 (43.3)7080 (49.9)
 II2791 (32.7)230 (63.9)1856 (62.9)1230 (52.7)6107 (43.1)
 III191 (2.2)22 (6.1)689 (23.3)93 (4.0)995 (7.0)
Histological subtype<0.001
 Ductal7137 (83.6)295 (81.9)2238 (75.8)1775 (76.1)11 445 (80.7)
 Lobular754 (8.8)48 (13.3)507 (17.2)360 (15.4)1669 (11.8)
 Other643 (7.5)17 (4.7)207 (7.0)197 (8.4)1064 (7.5)
Tumour grade<0.001
 11287 (15.3)22 (6.3)114 (4.1)218 (9.5)1641 (11.8)
 24035 (47.9)159 (45.3)1211 (43.3)1123 (48.8)6528 (47.1)
 33095 (36.8)170 (48.4)1473 (52.6)959 (41.7)5697 (41.1)
Subtype<0.001
 ER+HER2−6157 (72.1)231 (64.2)1763 (59.7)1503 (64.5)9654 (68.1)
 ER+HER2+696 (8.2)52 (14.4)401 (13.6)213 (9.1)1362 (9.6)
 ER−HER2+274 (3.2)15 (4.2)207 (7.0)113 (4.8)609 (4.3)
 ER−HER2−592 (6.9)18 (5.0)254 (8.6)190 (8.1)1054 (7.4)
 Inconclusive818 (9.6)44 (12.2)328 (11.1)313 (13.4)1503 (10.6)
Chemotherapy<0.001
 No5548 (65.0)147 (40.8)863 (29.2)1767 (75.8)8325 (58.7)
 Yes2989 (35.0)213 (59.2)2090 (70.8)565 (24.2)5857 (41.3)
Biological therapy<0.001
 No7681 (90.0)287 (79.7)2369 (80.2)2116 (90.7)12 453 (87.8)
 Yes856 (10.0)73 (20.3)584 (19.8)216 (9.3)1729 (12.2)
Endocrine therapy<0.001
 No1333 (15.6)61 (16.9)688 (23.3)519 (22.3)2601 (18.3)
 Yes7204 (84.4)299 (83.1)2265 (76.7)1813 (77.7)11 581 (81.7)
Deaths
 Overall1265 (14.8)37 (10.3)926 (31.4)734 (31.5)2962 (20.9)<0.001
 Breast cancer-specific450 (5.3)26 (7.2)604 (20.5)246 (10.5)1326 (9.3)<0.001

Values are n (%) unless otherwise indicated. *Pathological stage used for primary surgery patients and pretreatment clinical stage used for neoadjuvant chemotherapy patients. sBCS, standard breast-conserving surgery; RTx, radiotherapy; OBCS, oncoplastic breast-conserving surgery; MTx, mastectomy; SMID, Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation; ER, oestrogen receptor; HER2, human epidermal growth factor receptor-2.

A higher proportion of patients in the BCS + RTx group presented through the screening pathway compared with those who underwent Mx + RTx or Mx − RTx (screening: 44.7% versus 13.3% (Mx + RTx) and 23.3% (Mx − RTx), P < 0.001). Similarly, smaller tumours and early stage I disease were more common in the BCS + RTx group (T1 disease: 64.9% versus 16.1% (Mx + RTx) versus 44.6% (Mx − RTx), P < 0.001; stage I disease: 63.7% versus 13.8% (Mx + RTx) versus 43.3% (Mx − RTx), P < 0.001). In addition, ER+HER2− tumours (associated with a good prognosis) were more common amongst the breast conservation group (P < 0.001).

Nodal involvement was more common amongst the patients who underwent Mx + RTx and a higher proportion of this cohort received chemotherapy compared with those who underwent BCS + RTx or Mx − RTx (nodal involvement: 77.8% versus 25.2% (BCS + RTx) versus 14.8% (Mx − RTx), P < 0.001; chemotherapy: 70.8% versus 36.0% (BCS + RTx) versus 24.2% (Mx − RTx), P < 0.001). Lobular cancers were more common amongst the Mx group compared with the BCS + RTx group (P < 0.001), which may be reflective of their multifocal nature. In the unadjusted analysis, more deaths were observed in the Mx cohort, consistent with patients presenting with more advanced disease.

In total, 2962 (20.9%) deaths occurred during the follow-up interval, of which 1326 (9.3%) were attributed to breast cancer. Within the BCS + RTx group, 1302 (14.6%) deaths were observed, with 476 (5.3%) attributed to breast cancer; 5-year OS was 92.5% and 5-year BCSS was 96.2%. Ten-year survival rates were 81.2% (OS) and 93.3% (BCSS). Within the Mx + RTx group, there were 926 (31.4%) deaths, with 604 (20.5%) attributed to breast cancer; 5-year survival rates were 79.8% (OS) and 84.5% (BCSS) and 10-year survival rates were 63.4% (OS) and 75.9% (BCSS). Within the Mx − RTx group there were 734 (31.5%) deaths, with 246 (10.5%) attributed to breast cancer; 5-year survival rates were 82.2% (OS) and 92.0% (BCSS) and 10-year survival rates were 63.1% (OS) and 87.5% (BCSS).

Superior OS and BCSS were observed after BCS + RTx compared with Mx ± RTx via Kaplan–Meier survival analysis using the log rank test (Fig. 2). In unadjusted analysis, Mx ± RTx was associated with the lowest OS (Fig. 2a) and Mx + RTx was associated with the lowest BCSS (Fig. 2b).

Kaplan–Meier survival curves comparing breast-conserving surgery + radiotherapy and mastectomy ± radiotherapy
Fig. 2.

Kaplan–Meier survival curves comparing breast-conserving surgery + radiotherapy and mastectomy ± radiotherapy

a Overall survival. b Breast cancer-specific survival. BCS, breast-conserving surgery; RTx, radiotherapy; MTx, mastectomy.

In Cox regression models adjusted for age, year of diagnosis, and mode of referral, BCS + RTx was associated with superior OS and BCSS compared with Mx ± RTx. Superior survival outcomes after BCS + RTx remained significant after further adjustments for socio-economic deprivation, tumour characteristics, staging, and treatment adjuncts (Table 2).

Table 2

Multivariable analysis using Cox regression to compare breast-conserving surgery + radiotherapy and mastectomy ± radiotherapy—HRs of overall survival and breast cancer-specific survival by treatment modality adjusted stepwise for patient demographics, socio-economic deprivation, tumour characteristics, staging, and treatment adjuncts

 DeathsHR (95% c.i.), P
Model AModel BModel CModel D
Overall survival
 BCS + RTx1302 (14.6)1 (reference)1 (reference)1 (reference)1 (reference)
 Mx + RTx926 (31.4)1.95 (1.78,2.12), <0.0011.96 (1.80,2.14), <0.0011.32 (1.17,1.48), <0.0011.34 (1.20,1.51), <0.001
 Mx − RTx734 (31.5)1.59 (1.45,1.75), <0.0011.60 (1.45,1.75), <0.0011.67 (1.50,1.86), <0.0011.57 (1.41,1.75), <0.001
Breast cancer-specific survival
 BCS + RTx476 (5.3)1 (reference)1 (reference)1 (reference)1 (reference)
 Mx + RTx604 (20.5)3.18 (2.81,3.60), <0.0013.22 (2.84,3.64), <0.0011.61 (1.37,1.89), <0.0011.62 (1.38,1.90), <0.001
 Mx − RTx246 (10.5)1.61 (1.38,1.89), <0.0011.62 (1.38,1.90), <0.0011.80 (1.49,2.17), <0.0011.70 (1.41,2.05), <0.001
 DeathsHR (95% c.i.), P
Model AModel BModel CModel D
Overall survival
 BCS + RTx1302 (14.6)1 (reference)1 (reference)1 (reference)1 (reference)
 Mx + RTx926 (31.4)1.95 (1.78,2.12), <0.0011.96 (1.80,2.14), <0.0011.32 (1.17,1.48), <0.0011.34 (1.20,1.51), <0.001
 Mx − RTx734 (31.5)1.59 (1.45,1.75), <0.0011.60 (1.45,1.75), <0.0011.67 (1.50,1.86), <0.0011.57 (1.41,1.75), <0.001
Breast cancer-specific survival
 BCS + RTx476 (5.3)1 (reference)1 (reference)1 (reference)1 (reference)
 Mx + RTx604 (20.5)3.18 (2.81,3.60), <0.0013.22 (2.84,3.64), <0.0011.61 (1.37,1.89), <0.0011.62 (1.38,1.90), <0.001
 Mx − RTx246 (10.5)1.61 (1.38,1.89), <0.0011.62 (1.38,1.90), <0.0011.80 (1.49,2.17), <0.0011.70 (1.41,2.05), <0.001

Values are n (%) unless otherwise indicated. Model A: adjusted for age, year of diagnosis, and mode of referral. Model B: adjusted for the same variables as model A + socio-economic deprivation. Model C: adjusted for the same variables as model B + tumour grade, tumour size, receptor profile, and lymph node status (pathological staging for primary surgery patients and clinical staging for neoadjuvant chemotherapy patients). Model D: adjusted for the same variables as model C + treatment adjuncts (chemotherapy, biological therapy, and/or endocrine therapy). BCS, breast-conserving surgery; RTx, radiotherapy; MTx, mastectomy.

Table 2

Multivariable analysis using Cox regression to compare breast-conserving surgery + radiotherapy and mastectomy ± radiotherapy—HRs of overall survival and breast cancer-specific survival by treatment modality adjusted stepwise for patient demographics, socio-economic deprivation, tumour characteristics, staging, and treatment adjuncts

 DeathsHR (95% c.i.), P
Model AModel BModel CModel D
Overall survival
 BCS + RTx1302 (14.6)1 (reference)1 (reference)1 (reference)1 (reference)
 Mx + RTx926 (31.4)1.95 (1.78,2.12), <0.0011.96 (1.80,2.14), <0.0011.32 (1.17,1.48), <0.0011.34 (1.20,1.51), <0.001
 Mx − RTx734 (31.5)1.59 (1.45,1.75), <0.0011.60 (1.45,1.75), <0.0011.67 (1.50,1.86), <0.0011.57 (1.41,1.75), <0.001
Breast cancer-specific survival
 BCS + RTx476 (5.3)1 (reference)1 (reference)1 (reference)1 (reference)
 Mx + RTx604 (20.5)3.18 (2.81,3.60), <0.0013.22 (2.84,3.64), <0.0011.61 (1.37,1.89), <0.0011.62 (1.38,1.90), <0.001
 Mx − RTx246 (10.5)1.61 (1.38,1.89), <0.0011.62 (1.38,1.90), <0.0011.80 (1.49,2.17), <0.0011.70 (1.41,2.05), <0.001
 DeathsHR (95% c.i.), P
Model AModel BModel CModel D
Overall survival
 BCS + RTx1302 (14.6)1 (reference)1 (reference)1 (reference)1 (reference)
 Mx + RTx926 (31.4)1.95 (1.78,2.12), <0.0011.96 (1.80,2.14), <0.0011.32 (1.17,1.48), <0.0011.34 (1.20,1.51), <0.001
 Mx − RTx734 (31.5)1.59 (1.45,1.75), <0.0011.60 (1.45,1.75), <0.0011.67 (1.50,1.86), <0.0011.57 (1.41,1.75), <0.001
Breast cancer-specific survival
 BCS + RTx476 (5.3)1 (reference)1 (reference)1 (reference)1 (reference)
 Mx + RTx604 (20.5)3.18 (2.81,3.60), <0.0013.22 (2.84,3.64), <0.0011.61 (1.37,1.89), <0.0011.62 (1.38,1.90), <0.001
 Mx − RTx246 (10.5)1.61 (1.38,1.89), <0.0011.62 (1.38,1.90), <0.0011.80 (1.49,2.17), <0.0011.70 (1.41,2.05), <0.001

Values are n (%) unless otherwise indicated. Model A: adjusted for age, year of diagnosis, and mode of referral. Model B: adjusted for the same variables as model A + socio-economic deprivation. Model C: adjusted for the same variables as model B + tumour grade, tumour size, receptor profile, and lymph node status (pathological staging for primary surgery patients and clinical staging for neoadjuvant chemotherapy patients). Model D: adjusted for the same variables as model C + treatment adjuncts (chemotherapy, biological therapy, and/or endocrine therapy). BCS, breast-conserving surgery; RTx, radiotherapy; MTx, mastectomy.

In a multivariable analysis, older age at diagnosis, patients living in areas of highest deprivation, increased tumour size, advanced tumour grade (grade 3), unfavourable tumour subtypes (ER+HER2+, ER−HER2+, and ER−HER2−), and axillary lymph node metastasis were associated with inferior OS. Presentation via screening programmes (HR 0.66 (95% c.i. 0.59 to 0.75), P < 0.001) and use of treatment adjuncts (chemotherapy: HR 0.68 (95% c.i. 0.60 to 0.76), P < 0.001; biological therapy: HR 0.53 (95% c.i. 0.42 to 0.66), P < 0.001; endocrine therapy: HR 0.73 (95% c.i. 0.58 to 0.91), P = 0.006) were associated with superior OS (Table 3). Similar findings were identified for BCSS; patients aged greater than or equal to 70 years at diagnosis, living in areas of highest deprivation, with increased tumour size and advanced tumour grade, with tumour subtypes ER+HER2+ and ER−HER2−, and with axillary lymph node metastasis were associated with inferior BCSS. Presentation via screening programmes (HR 0.63 (95% c.i. 0.52 to 0.77), P < 0.001) and use of treatment adjuncts (chemotherapy: HR 0.91 (95% c.i. 0.77 to 1.09), P = 0.295; biological therapy: HR 0.41 (95% c.i. 0.30 to 0.57), P < 0.001; endocrine therapy: HR 0.52 (95% c.i. 0.38 to 0.71), P < 0.001), with the exception of chemotherapy, were associated with superior BCSS (Table 4).

Table 3

Multivariable analysis table comparing breast-conserving surgery + radiotherapy and mastectomy ± radiotherapy for overall survival adjusted for patient demographics, socio-economic deprivation, tumour characteristics, staging, and treatment adjuncts

CharacteristicValueHR (95% c.i.)P
Treatment modality
 BCS + RTx8897 (62.7)1 (reference)
 Mx + RTx2953 (20.9)1.34 (1.20,1.51)<0.001
 Mx − RTx2332 (16.4)1.57 (1.41,1.75)< .001
Age at diagnosis (years)
 <502748 (19.3)1 (reference)
 50–698264 (58.3)1.45 (1.26,1.66)<0.001
 ≥703170 (22.4)3.12 (2.70,3.61)<0.001
Referral
 Symptomatic8195 (57.8)1 (reference)
 Screening4912 (34.6)0.66 (0.59,0.75)<0.001
 Other1075 (7.6)1.17 (1.02,1.35)0.027
Year of diagnosis
 2010–20111837 (13.0)1 (reference)
 2012–20133206 (22.6)0.89 (0.78,1.01)0.078
 2014–20153203 (22.6)0.98 (0.85,1.13)0.805
 2016–20172945 (20.8)0.87 (0.74,1.03)0.106
 2018–20192991 (21.1)0.78 (0.65,0.94)0.008
SIMD category
 Most affluent2735 (19.4)1 (reference)
 Affluent2396 (17.0)0.96 (0.83,1.11)0.574
 Intermediate2472 (17.5)1.09 (0.95,1.26)0.217
 Deprived2936 (20.8)1.12 (0.99,1.28)0.083
 Most deprived3563 (25.3)1.46 (1.29,1.65)<0.001
Tumour grade
 11641 (11.8)1 (reference)
 26528 (47.1)1.03 (0.87,1.21)0.741
 35697 (41.1)1.48 (1.25,1.76)<0.001
Tumour size
 T17271 (51.6)1 (reference)
 T25692 (40.3)1.29 (1.18,1.42)<0.001
 ≥T31135 (8.1)2.06 (1.77,2.40)<0.001
Tumour subtype
 ER+HER2−9654 (68.1)1 (reference)
 ER+HER2+1362 (9.6)1.30 (1.08,1.57)0.006
 ER−HER2+609 (4.3)1.41 (1.05,1.89)0.021
 ER−HER2−1054 (7.4)1.42 (1.11,1.82)0.005
Lymph node status
 N09209 (65.5)1 (reference)
 N1–34850 (34.5)1.63 (1.48,1.80)<0.001
Chemotherapy
 No8325 (58.7)1 (reference)
 Yes5857 (41.3)0.68 (0.60,0.76)<0.001
Biological therapy
 No12 453 (87.8)1 (reference)
 Yes1729 (12.2)0.53 (0.42,0.66)<0.001
Endocrine therapy
 No2601 (18.3)1 (reference)
 Yes11 581 (81.7)0.73 (0.58,0.91)0.006
CharacteristicValueHR (95% c.i.)P
Treatment modality
 BCS + RTx8897 (62.7)1 (reference)
 Mx + RTx2953 (20.9)1.34 (1.20,1.51)<0.001
 Mx − RTx2332 (16.4)1.57 (1.41,1.75)< .001
Age at diagnosis (years)
 <502748 (19.3)1 (reference)
 50–698264 (58.3)1.45 (1.26,1.66)<0.001
 ≥703170 (22.4)3.12 (2.70,3.61)<0.001
Referral
 Symptomatic8195 (57.8)1 (reference)
 Screening4912 (34.6)0.66 (0.59,0.75)<0.001
 Other1075 (7.6)1.17 (1.02,1.35)0.027
Year of diagnosis
 2010–20111837 (13.0)1 (reference)
 2012–20133206 (22.6)0.89 (0.78,1.01)0.078
 2014–20153203 (22.6)0.98 (0.85,1.13)0.805
 2016–20172945 (20.8)0.87 (0.74,1.03)0.106
 2018–20192991 (21.1)0.78 (0.65,0.94)0.008
SIMD category
 Most affluent2735 (19.4)1 (reference)
 Affluent2396 (17.0)0.96 (0.83,1.11)0.574
 Intermediate2472 (17.5)1.09 (0.95,1.26)0.217
 Deprived2936 (20.8)1.12 (0.99,1.28)0.083
 Most deprived3563 (25.3)1.46 (1.29,1.65)<0.001
Tumour grade
 11641 (11.8)1 (reference)
 26528 (47.1)1.03 (0.87,1.21)0.741
 35697 (41.1)1.48 (1.25,1.76)<0.001
Tumour size
 T17271 (51.6)1 (reference)
 T25692 (40.3)1.29 (1.18,1.42)<0.001
 ≥T31135 (8.1)2.06 (1.77,2.40)<0.001
Tumour subtype
 ER+HER2−9654 (68.1)1 (reference)
 ER+HER2+1362 (9.6)1.30 (1.08,1.57)0.006
 ER−HER2+609 (4.3)1.41 (1.05,1.89)0.021
 ER−HER2−1054 (7.4)1.42 (1.11,1.82)0.005
Lymph node status
 N09209 (65.5)1 (reference)
 N1–34850 (34.5)1.63 (1.48,1.80)<0.001
Chemotherapy
 No8325 (58.7)1 (reference)
 Yes5857 (41.3)0.68 (0.60,0.76)<0.001
Biological therapy
 No12 453 (87.8)1 (reference)
 Yes1729 (12.2)0.53 (0.42,0.66)<0.001
Endocrine therapy
 No2601 (18.3)1 (reference)
 Yes11 581 (81.7)0.73 (0.58,0.91)0.006

Values are n (%) unless otherwise indicated. BCS, breast-conserving surgery; RTx, radiotherapy; Mx, mastectomy; SMID, Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation; ER, oestrogen receptor; HER2, human epidermal growth factor receptor-2.

Table 3

Multivariable analysis table comparing breast-conserving surgery + radiotherapy and mastectomy ± radiotherapy for overall survival adjusted for patient demographics, socio-economic deprivation, tumour characteristics, staging, and treatment adjuncts

CharacteristicValueHR (95% c.i.)P
Treatment modality
 BCS + RTx8897 (62.7)1 (reference)
 Mx + RTx2953 (20.9)1.34 (1.20,1.51)<0.001
 Mx − RTx2332 (16.4)1.57 (1.41,1.75)< .001
Age at diagnosis (years)
 <502748 (19.3)1 (reference)
 50–698264 (58.3)1.45 (1.26,1.66)<0.001
 ≥703170 (22.4)3.12 (2.70,3.61)<0.001
Referral
 Symptomatic8195 (57.8)1 (reference)
 Screening4912 (34.6)0.66 (0.59,0.75)<0.001
 Other1075 (7.6)1.17 (1.02,1.35)0.027
Year of diagnosis
 2010–20111837 (13.0)1 (reference)
 2012–20133206 (22.6)0.89 (0.78,1.01)0.078
 2014–20153203 (22.6)0.98 (0.85,1.13)0.805
 2016–20172945 (20.8)0.87 (0.74,1.03)0.106
 2018–20192991 (21.1)0.78 (0.65,0.94)0.008
SIMD category
 Most affluent2735 (19.4)1 (reference)
 Affluent2396 (17.0)0.96 (0.83,1.11)0.574
 Intermediate2472 (17.5)1.09 (0.95,1.26)0.217
 Deprived2936 (20.8)1.12 (0.99,1.28)0.083
 Most deprived3563 (25.3)1.46 (1.29,1.65)<0.001
Tumour grade
 11641 (11.8)1 (reference)
 26528 (47.1)1.03 (0.87,1.21)0.741
 35697 (41.1)1.48 (1.25,1.76)<0.001
Tumour size
 T17271 (51.6)1 (reference)
 T25692 (40.3)1.29 (1.18,1.42)<0.001
 ≥T31135 (8.1)2.06 (1.77,2.40)<0.001
Tumour subtype
 ER+HER2−9654 (68.1)1 (reference)
 ER+HER2+1362 (9.6)1.30 (1.08,1.57)0.006
 ER−HER2+609 (4.3)1.41 (1.05,1.89)0.021
 ER−HER2−1054 (7.4)1.42 (1.11,1.82)0.005
Lymph node status
 N09209 (65.5)1 (reference)
 N1–34850 (34.5)1.63 (1.48,1.80)<0.001
Chemotherapy
 No8325 (58.7)1 (reference)
 Yes5857 (41.3)0.68 (0.60,0.76)<0.001
Biological therapy
 No12 453 (87.8)1 (reference)
 Yes1729 (12.2)0.53 (0.42,0.66)<0.001
Endocrine therapy
 No2601 (18.3)1 (reference)
 Yes11 581 (81.7)0.73 (0.58,0.91)0.006
CharacteristicValueHR (95% c.i.)P
Treatment modality
 BCS + RTx8897 (62.7)1 (reference)
 Mx + RTx2953 (20.9)1.34 (1.20,1.51)<0.001
 Mx − RTx2332 (16.4)1.57 (1.41,1.75)< .001
Age at diagnosis (years)
 <502748 (19.3)1 (reference)
 50–698264 (58.3)1.45 (1.26,1.66)<0.001
 ≥703170 (22.4)3.12 (2.70,3.61)<0.001
Referral
 Symptomatic8195 (57.8)1 (reference)
 Screening4912 (34.6)0.66 (0.59,0.75)<0.001
 Other1075 (7.6)1.17 (1.02,1.35)0.027
Year of diagnosis
 2010–20111837 (13.0)1 (reference)
 2012–20133206 (22.6)0.89 (0.78,1.01)0.078
 2014–20153203 (22.6)0.98 (0.85,1.13)0.805
 2016–20172945 (20.8)0.87 (0.74,1.03)0.106
 2018–20192991 (21.1)0.78 (0.65,0.94)0.008
SIMD category
 Most affluent2735 (19.4)1 (reference)
 Affluent2396 (17.0)0.96 (0.83,1.11)0.574
 Intermediate2472 (17.5)1.09 (0.95,1.26)0.217
 Deprived2936 (20.8)1.12 (0.99,1.28)0.083
 Most deprived3563 (25.3)1.46 (1.29,1.65)<0.001
Tumour grade
 11641 (11.8)1 (reference)
 26528 (47.1)1.03 (0.87,1.21)0.741
 35697 (41.1)1.48 (1.25,1.76)<0.001
Tumour size
 T17271 (51.6)1 (reference)
 T25692 (40.3)1.29 (1.18,1.42)<0.001
 ≥T31135 (8.1)2.06 (1.77,2.40)<0.001
Tumour subtype
 ER+HER2−9654 (68.1)1 (reference)
 ER+HER2+1362 (9.6)1.30 (1.08,1.57)0.006
 ER−HER2+609 (4.3)1.41 (1.05,1.89)0.021
 ER−HER2−1054 (7.4)1.42 (1.11,1.82)0.005
Lymph node status
 N09209 (65.5)1 (reference)
 N1–34850 (34.5)1.63 (1.48,1.80)<0.001
Chemotherapy
 No8325 (58.7)1 (reference)
 Yes5857 (41.3)0.68 (0.60,0.76)<0.001
Biological therapy
 No12 453 (87.8)1 (reference)
 Yes1729 (12.2)0.53 (0.42,0.66)<0.001
Endocrine therapy
 No2601 (18.3)1 (reference)
 Yes11 581 (81.7)0.73 (0.58,0.91)0.006

Values are n (%) unless otherwise indicated. BCS, breast-conserving surgery; RTx, radiotherapy; Mx, mastectomy; SMID, Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation; ER, oestrogen receptor; HER2, human epidermal growth factor receptor-2.

Table 4

Multivariable analysis table comparing breast-conserving surgery + radiotherapy and mastectomy ± radiotherapy for breast cancer-specific survival adjusted for patient demographics, socio-economic deprivation, tumour characteristics, staging, and treatment adjuncts

CharacteristicValueHR (95% c.i.)P
Treatment modality
 BCS + RTx8897 (62.7)1 (reference)
 Mx + RTx2953 (20.9)1.62 (1.38,1.90)<0.001
 Mx − RTx2332 (16.4)1.70 (1.41,2.05)<0.001
Age at diagnosis (years)
 <502748 (19.3)1 (reference)
 50–698264 (58.3)0.99 (0.84,1.17)0.947
 ≥703170 (22.4)1.35 (1.11,1.65)0.003
Referral
 Symptomatic8195 (57.8)1 (reference)
 Screening4912 (34.6)0.63 (0.52,0.77)<0.001
 Other1075 (7.6)1.38 (1.12,1.70)0.003
Year of surgery
 2010–20111837 (13.0)1 (reference)
 2012–20133206 (22.6)0.82 (0.67,1.01)0.064
 2014–20153203 (22.6)0.87 (0.71,1.08)0.210
 2016–20172945 (20.8)0.80 (0.62,1.02)0.071
 2018–20192991 (21.1)0.70 (0.54,0.91)0.008
SIMD category
 Most affluent2735 (19.4)1 (reference)
 Affluent2396 (17.0)0.90 (0.72,1.12)0.335
 Intermediate2472 (17.5)0.97 (0.78,1.20)0.776
 Deprived2936 (20.8)1.10 (0.90,1.34)0.360
 Most deprived3563 (25.3)1.34 (1.11,1.60)0.002
Tumour grade
 11641 (11.8)1 (reference)
 26528 (47.1)2.65 (1.62,4.34)<0.001
 35697 (41.1)5.38 (3.29,8.81)<0.001
Tumour size
 T17271 (51.6)1 (reference)
 T25692 (40.3)1.96 (1.67,2.32)<0.001
 ≥T31135 (8.1)3.37 (2.72,4.17)<0.001
Tumour subtype
 ER+HER2−9654 (68.1)1 (reference)
 ER+HER2+1362 (9.6)1.51 (1.12,2.02)0.007
 ER−HER2+609 (4.3)1.06 (0.69,1.62)0.787
 ER−HER2−1054 (7.4)1.41 (1.01,1.97)0.042
Lymph node status
 N09209 (65.5)1 (reference)
 N1–34850 (34.5)2.37 (2.04,2.76)<0.001
Chemotherapy
 No8325 (58.7)1 (reference)
 Yes5857 (41.3)0.91 (0.77,1.09)0.295
Biological therapy
 No12 453 (87.8)1 (reference)
 Yes1729 (12.2)0.41 (0.30,0.57)<0.001
Endocrine therapy
 No2601 (18.3)1 (reference)
 Yes11 581 (81.7)0.52 (0.38,0.71)<0.001
CharacteristicValueHR (95% c.i.)P
Treatment modality
 BCS + RTx8897 (62.7)1 (reference)
 Mx + RTx2953 (20.9)1.62 (1.38,1.90)<0.001
 Mx − RTx2332 (16.4)1.70 (1.41,2.05)<0.001
Age at diagnosis (years)
 <502748 (19.3)1 (reference)
 50–698264 (58.3)0.99 (0.84,1.17)0.947
 ≥703170 (22.4)1.35 (1.11,1.65)0.003
Referral
 Symptomatic8195 (57.8)1 (reference)
 Screening4912 (34.6)0.63 (0.52,0.77)<0.001
 Other1075 (7.6)1.38 (1.12,1.70)0.003
Year of surgery
 2010–20111837 (13.0)1 (reference)
 2012–20133206 (22.6)0.82 (0.67,1.01)0.064
 2014–20153203 (22.6)0.87 (0.71,1.08)0.210
 2016–20172945 (20.8)0.80 (0.62,1.02)0.071
 2018–20192991 (21.1)0.70 (0.54,0.91)0.008
SIMD category
 Most affluent2735 (19.4)1 (reference)
 Affluent2396 (17.0)0.90 (0.72,1.12)0.335
 Intermediate2472 (17.5)0.97 (0.78,1.20)0.776
 Deprived2936 (20.8)1.10 (0.90,1.34)0.360
 Most deprived3563 (25.3)1.34 (1.11,1.60)0.002
Tumour grade
 11641 (11.8)1 (reference)
 26528 (47.1)2.65 (1.62,4.34)<0.001
 35697 (41.1)5.38 (3.29,8.81)<0.001
Tumour size
 T17271 (51.6)1 (reference)
 T25692 (40.3)1.96 (1.67,2.32)<0.001
 ≥T31135 (8.1)3.37 (2.72,4.17)<0.001
Tumour subtype
 ER+HER2−9654 (68.1)1 (reference)
 ER+HER2+1362 (9.6)1.51 (1.12,2.02)0.007
 ER−HER2+609 (4.3)1.06 (0.69,1.62)0.787
 ER−HER2−1054 (7.4)1.41 (1.01,1.97)0.042
Lymph node status
 N09209 (65.5)1 (reference)
 N1–34850 (34.5)2.37 (2.04,2.76)<0.001
Chemotherapy
 No8325 (58.7)1 (reference)
 Yes5857 (41.3)0.91 (0.77,1.09)0.295
Biological therapy
 No12 453 (87.8)1 (reference)
 Yes1729 (12.2)0.41 (0.30,0.57)<0.001
Endocrine therapy
 No2601 (18.3)1 (reference)
 Yes11 581 (81.7)0.52 (0.38,0.71)<0.001

Values are n (%) unless otherwise indicated. BCS, breast-conserving surgery; RTx, radiotherapy; Mx, mastectomy; SMID, Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation; ER, oestrogen receptor; HER2, Human epidermal growth factor receptor-2.

Table 4

Multivariable analysis table comparing breast-conserving surgery + radiotherapy and mastectomy ± radiotherapy for breast cancer-specific survival adjusted for patient demographics, socio-economic deprivation, tumour characteristics, staging, and treatment adjuncts

CharacteristicValueHR (95% c.i.)P
Treatment modality
 BCS + RTx8897 (62.7)1 (reference)
 Mx + RTx2953 (20.9)1.62 (1.38,1.90)<0.001
 Mx − RTx2332 (16.4)1.70 (1.41,2.05)<0.001
Age at diagnosis (years)
 <502748 (19.3)1 (reference)
 50–698264 (58.3)0.99 (0.84,1.17)0.947
 ≥703170 (22.4)1.35 (1.11,1.65)0.003
Referral
 Symptomatic8195 (57.8)1 (reference)
 Screening4912 (34.6)0.63 (0.52,0.77)<0.001
 Other1075 (7.6)1.38 (1.12,1.70)0.003
Year of surgery
 2010–20111837 (13.0)1 (reference)
 2012–20133206 (22.6)0.82 (0.67,1.01)0.064
 2014–20153203 (22.6)0.87 (0.71,1.08)0.210
 2016–20172945 (20.8)0.80 (0.62,1.02)0.071
 2018–20192991 (21.1)0.70 (0.54,0.91)0.008
SIMD category
 Most affluent2735 (19.4)1 (reference)
 Affluent2396 (17.0)0.90 (0.72,1.12)0.335
 Intermediate2472 (17.5)0.97 (0.78,1.20)0.776
 Deprived2936 (20.8)1.10 (0.90,1.34)0.360
 Most deprived3563 (25.3)1.34 (1.11,1.60)0.002
Tumour grade
 11641 (11.8)1 (reference)
 26528 (47.1)2.65 (1.62,4.34)<0.001
 35697 (41.1)5.38 (3.29,8.81)<0.001
Tumour size
 T17271 (51.6)1 (reference)
 T25692 (40.3)1.96 (1.67,2.32)<0.001
 ≥T31135 (8.1)3.37 (2.72,4.17)<0.001
Tumour subtype
 ER+HER2−9654 (68.1)1 (reference)
 ER+HER2+1362 (9.6)1.51 (1.12,2.02)0.007
 ER−HER2+609 (4.3)1.06 (0.69,1.62)0.787
 ER−HER2−1054 (7.4)1.41 (1.01,1.97)0.042
Lymph node status
 N09209 (65.5)1 (reference)
 N1–34850 (34.5)2.37 (2.04,2.76)<0.001
Chemotherapy
 No8325 (58.7)1 (reference)
 Yes5857 (41.3)0.91 (0.77,1.09)0.295
Biological therapy
 No12 453 (87.8)1 (reference)
 Yes1729 (12.2)0.41 (0.30,0.57)<0.001
Endocrine therapy
 No2601 (18.3)1 (reference)
 Yes11 581 (81.7)0.52 (0.38,0.71)<0.001
CharacteristicValueHR (95% c.i.)P
Treatment modality
 BCS + RTx8897 (62.7)1 (reference)
 Mx + RTx2953 (20.9)1.62 (1.38,1.90)<0.001
 Mx − RTx2332 (16.4)1.70 (1.41,2.05)<0.001
Age at diagnosis (years)
 <502748 (19.3)1 (reference)
 50–698264 (58.3)0.99 (0.84,1.17)0.947
 ≥703170 (22.4)1.35 (1.11,1.65)0.003
Referral
 Symptomatic8195 (57.8)1 (reference)
 Screening4912 (34.6)0.63 (0.52,0.77)<0.001
 Other1075 (7.6)1.38 (1.12,1.70)0.003
Year of surgery
 2010–20111837 (13.0)1 (reference)
 2012–20133206 (22.6)0.82 (0.67,1.01)0.064
 2014–20153203 (22.6)0.87 (0.71,1.08)0.210
 2016–20172945 (20.8)0.80 (0.62,1.02)0.071
 2018–20192991 (21.1)0.70 (0.54,0.91)0.008
SIMD category
 Most affluent2735 (19.4)1 (reference)
 Affluent2396 (17.0)0.90 (0.72,1.12)0.335
 Intermediate2472 (17.5)0.97 (0.78,1.20)0.776
 Deprived2936 (20.8)1.10 (0.90,1.34)0.360
 Most deprived3563 (25.3)1.34 (1.11,1.60)0.002
Tumour grade
 11641 (11.8)1 (reference)
 26528 (47.1)2.65 (1.62,4.34)<0.001
 35697 (41.1)5.38 (3.29,8.81)<0.001
Tumour size
 T17271 (51.6)1 (reference)
 T25692 (40.3)1.96 (1.67,2.32)<0.001
 ≥T31135 (8.1)3.37 (2.72,4.17)<0.001
Tumour subtype
 ER+HER2−9654 (68.1)1 (reference)
 ER+HER2+1362 (9.6)1.51 (1.12,2.02)0.007
 ER−HER2+609 (4.3)1.06 (0.69,1.62)0.787
 ER−HER2−1054 (7.4)1.41 (1.01,1.97)0.042
Lymph node status
 N09209 (65.5)1 (reference)
 N1–34850 (34.5)2.37 (2.04,2.76)<0.001
Chemotherapy
 No8325 (58.7)1 (reference)
 Yes5857 (41.3)0.91 (0.77,1.09)0.295
Biological therapy
 No12 453 (87.8)1 (reference)
 Yes1729 (12.2)0.41 (0.30,0.57)<0.001
Endocrine therapy
 No2601 (18.3)1 (reference)
 Yes11 581 (81.7)0.52 (0.38,0.71)<0.001

Values are n (%) unless otherwise indicated. BCS, breast-conserving surgery; RTx, radiotherapy; Mx, mastectomy; SMID, Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation; ER, oestrogen receptor; HER2, Human epidermal growth factor receptor-2.

To better understand the survival outcomes associated with OBCS + RTx, subgroup analysis was carried out comparing survival outcomes after OBCS + RTx and M ± RTx (5645 patients), excluding patients who underwent sBCS + RTx. Within the OBCS + RTx group (360 patients), 37 (10.3%) deaths were observed, with 26 (7.2%) attributed to breast cancer; 10-year survival rates were 86.1% (OS) and 90.2% (BCSS). Table 1 shows similarities in clinical characteristics such as mode of referral, tumour size, and prognostic stage between patients who underwent OBCS + RTx and Mx ± RTx, whereas numbers of overall and cancer-specific deaths were more similar between patients who underwent sBCS + RTx and OBCS + RTx. Superior OS and BCSS were observed after OBCS + RTx compared with Mx ± RTx via Kaplan–Meier survival analysis using the log rank test (Fig. 3). Superior OS and BCSS remained significant after adjusting for patient demographics, socio-economic deprivation, tumour characteristics, and treatment adjuncts (Table 5).

Kaplan–Meier survival curves comparing oncoplastic breast-conserving surgery + radiotherapy and mastectomy ± radiotherapy
Fig. 3

Kaplan–Meier survival curves comparing oncoplastic breast-conserving surgery + radiotherapy and mastectomy ± radiotherapy

a Overall survival. b Breast cancer-specific survival. OBCS, oncoplastic breast-conserving surgery; RTx, radiotherapy; MTx, mastectomy.

Table 5

Multivariable analysis using Cox regression to compare oncoplastic breast-conserving surgery + radiotherapy and mastectomy ± radiotherapy—HRs of overall survival and breast cancer-specific survival by treatment modality adjusted stepwise for patient demographics, socio-economic deprivation, tumour characteristics, staging, and treatment adjuncts

 DeathsHR (95% c.i.), P
Model AModel BModel CModel D
Overall survival
 OBCS + RTx37 (10.3)1 (reference)1 (reference)1 (reference)1 (reference)
 Mx + RTx926 (31.4)2.38 (1.71,3.31), <0.0012.26 (1.63,3.15), <0.0011.70 (1.14,2.51), 0.0081.72 (1.16,2.55), 0.007
 Mx − RTx734 (31.5)2.01 (1.44,2.80), <0.0011.89 (1.35,2.64), <0.0012.48 (1.67,3.67), <0.0012.21 (1.49,3.27), <0.001
Breast cancer-specific survival
 OBCS + RTx26 (7.2)1 (reference)1 (reference)1 (reference)1 (reference)
 Mx + RTx604 (20.5)2.51 (1.69,3.72), <0.0012.42 (1.63,3.60), <0.0011.72 (1.05,2.83), 0.0311.74 (1.06,2.86), 0.028
 Mx − RTx246 (10.5)1.28 (0.85,1.92), 0.2431.22 (0.81,1.84), 0.3412.06 (1.24,3.42), 0.0051.89 (1.13,3.14), 0.015
 DeathsHR (95% c.i.), P
Model AModel BModel CModel D
Overall survival
 OBCS + RTx37 (10.3)1 (reference)1 (reference)1 (reference)1 (reference)
 Mx + RTx926 (31.4)2.38 (1.71,3.31), <0.0012.26 (1.63,3.15), <0.0011.70 (1.14,2.51), 0.0081.72 (1.16,2.55), 0.007
 Mx − RTx734 (31.5)2.01 (1.44,2.80), <0.0011.89 (1.35,2.64), <0.0012.48 (1.67,3.67), <0.0012.21 (1.49,3.27), <0.001
Breast cancer-specific survival
 OBCS + RTx26 (7.2)1 (reference)1 (reference)1 (reference)1 (reference)
 Mx + RTx604 (20.5)2.51 (1.69,3.72), <0.0012.42 (1.63,3.60), <0.0011.72 (1.05,2.83), 0.0311.74 (1.06,2.86), 0.028
 Mx − RTx246 (10.5)1.28 (0.85,1.92), 0.2431.22 (0.81,1.84), 0.3412.06 (1.24,3.42), 0.0051.89 (1.13,3.14), 0.015

Values are n (%) unless otherwise indicated. Model A: adjusted for age, year of diagnosis, and mode of referral. Model B: adjusted for the same variables as model A + socio-economic deprivation. Model C: adjusted for the same variables as model B + tumour grade, tumour size, receptor profile, and lymph node status (pathological staging for primary surgery patients and clinical staging for neoadjuvant chemotherapy patients). Model D: adjusted for the same variables as model C + treatment adjuncts (chemotherapy, biological therapy, and/or endocrine therapy). OBCS, oncoplastic breast-conserving surgery; RTx, radiotherapy; MTx, mastectomy.

Table 5

Multivariable analysis using Cox regression to compare oncoplastic breast-conserving surgery + radiotherapy and mastectomy ± radiotherapy—HRs of overall survival and breast cancer-specific survival by treatment modality adjusted stepwise for patient demographics, socio-economic deprivation, tumour characteristics, staging, and treatment adjuncts

 DeathsHR (95% c.i.), P
Model AModel BModel CModel D
Overall survival
 OBCS + RTx37 (10.3)1 (reference)1 (reference)1 (reference)1 (reference)
 Mx + RTx926 (31.4)2.38 (1.71,3.31), <0.0012.26 (1.63,3.15), <0.0011.70 (1.14,2.51), 0.0081.72 (1.16,2.55), 0.007
 Mx − RTx734 (31.5)2.01 (1.44,2.80), <0.0011.89 (1.35,2.64), <0.0012.48 (1.67,3.67), <0.0012.21 (1.49,3.27), <0.001
Breast cancer-specific survival
 OBCS + RTx26 (7.2)1 (reference)1 (reference)1 (reference)1 (reference)
 Mx + RTx604 (20.5)2.51 (1.69,3.72), <0.0012.42 (1.63,3.60), <0.0011.72 (1.05,2.83), 0.0311.74 (1.06,2.86), 0.028
 Mx − RTx246 (10.5)1.28 (0.85,1.92), 0.2431.22 (0.81,1.84), 0.3412.06 (1.24,3.42), 0.0051.89 (1.13,3.14), 0.015
 DeathsHR (95% c.i.), P
Model AModel BModel CModel D
Overall survival
 OBCS + RTx37 (10.3)1 (reference)1 (reference)1 (reference)1 (reference)
 Mx + RTx926 (31.4)2.38 (1.71,3.31), <0.0012.26 (1.63,3.15), <0.0011.70 (1.14,2.51), 0.0081.72 (1.16,2.55), 0.007
 Mx − RTx734 (31.5)2.01 (1.44,2.80), <0.0011.89 (1.35,2.64), <0.0012.48 (1.67,3.67), <0.0012.21 (1.49,3.27), <0.001
Breast cancer-specific survival
 OBCS + RTx26 (7.2)1 (reference)1 (reference)1 (reference)1 (reference)
 Mx + RTx604 (20.5)2.51 (1.69,3.72), <0.0012.42 (1.63,3.60), <0.0011.72 (1.05,2.83), 0.0311.74 (1.06,2.86), 0.028
 Mx − RTx246 (10.5)1.28 (0.85,1.92), 0.2431.22 (0.81,1.84), 0.3412.06 (1.24,3.42), 0.0051.89 (1.13,3.14), 0.015

Values are n (%) unless otherwise indicated. Model A: adjusted for age, year of diagnosis, and mode of referral. Model B: adjusted for the same variables as model A + socio-economic deprivation. Model C: adjusted for the same variables as model B + tumour grade, tumour size, receptor profile, and lymph node status (pathological staging for primary surgery patients and clinical staging for neoadjuvant chemotherapy patients). Model D: adjusted for the same variables as model C + treatment adjuncts (chemotherapy, biological therapy, and/or endocrine therapy). OBCS, oncoplastic breast-conserving surgery; RTx, radiotherapy; MTx, mastectomy.

Additional analysis comparing sBCS + RTx and OBCS + RTx (8897 patients) demonstrated no significant difference in OS or BCSS, both in the crude analysis (Fig. 4) and after adjustment for patient demographics, socio-economic deprivation, tumour characteristics, staging, and treatment adjuncts (OS: HR 0.78 (95% c.i. 0.53 to 1.15), P = 0.207; BCSS: HR 0.94 (95% c.i. 0.57 to 1.55), P = 0.815). The findings were strengthened by further subgroup analysis comparing survival outcomes after sBCS + RTx and Mx ± RTx (13 822 patients) (Table S1 and Fig. S1).

Kaplan–Meier survival curves comparing standard breast-conserving therapy + radiotherapy and oncoplastic breast-conserving surgery + radiotherapy
Fig. 4

Kaplan–Meier survival curves comparing standard breast-conserving therapy + radiotherapy and oncoplastic breast-conserving surgery + radiotherapy

a Overall survival. b Breast cancer-specific survival. sBCS, standard breast-conserving surgery; RTx, radiotherapy; OBCS, oncoplastic breast-conserving surgery.

Discussion

This large prospective population cohort study demonstrates superior OS and BCSS associated with BCS + RTx compared with Mx ± RTx after adjustment for patient demographics, socio-economic deprivation, mode of referral, tumour characteristics, staging, and treatment adjuncts in the West of Scotland population. In addition, it demonstrates similar survival benefit amongst a subgroup of patients undergoing OBCS + RTx compared with Mx ± RTx. Poor recruitment into the MIAMI trial demonstrated the non-feasibility of conducting an RCT comparing BCS and Mx23. Therefore, evidence relies on large population-based registry studies of unselected patients. Comparison of survival outcomes across different regions, where treatment standards may vary, add to overall knowledge and understanding. This is the first UK-based population cohort study comparing survival after breast conservation and Mx. The findings support previous evidence that BCS + RTx compared with Mx ± RTx is associated with superior survival, after adjustment for other known prognostic factors7–13.

As OBCS is now the standard of care across the UK, it is imperative to understand how this procedure may impact survival outcomes for patients with breast cancer. A nationwide Scottish audit previously demonstrated that OBCS represents a niche between standard breast conservation and Mx24. Therefore, the present study was inclusive of oncoplastic breast conservation procedures, which has not been the case in previously published literature on the survival advantage of breast conservation over Mx. It has been previously shown that patients treated with OBCS in Glasgow breast units have significantly better OS and BCSS compared with those treated with Mx when tumour and treatment characteristics are the same (OS: 98.1% versus 84.6%, HR 5.31 (95% c.i. 1.65 to 17.03), P < 0.001; BCSS: 99% versus 89.4%, HR 5.5 (95% c.i. 1.32 to 22.91), P < 0.001)25. Similarly, in the present study, superior OS and BCSS were observed after OBCS compared with Mx ± RTx and the benefit was maintained after adjusted analysis. These results suggest that patients who are treated with breast conservation using oncoplastic techniques have a better prognosis compared with those who undergo Mx; hence converting Mx into breast conservation—when feasible—with oncoplastic techniques improves prognoses.

The literature varies with regard to the association of patient age and BCSS after BCS. Three of the largest studies demonstrate superior BCSS after BCS in those over 50 years old26–28, whereas others report superior survival across all age categories29,30. The present study only found superior BCSS associated with conservation surgery in those aged greater than or equal to 70 years at diagnosis. This is an interesting observation as it is known that older women are more likely to undergo Mx, unexplained by clinicopathological parameters31, raising the question of patient and surgical decision-making. In the present study, an even distribution of treatment modalities in those aged greater than or equal to 70 years at diagnosis was observed, with 48% of patients in the cohort undergoing BCS/OBCS and 52% of patients in the cohort undergoing Mx. However, within the BCS group, those aged greater than or equal to 70 years at diagnosis were more likely to undergo sBCS than OBCS (17.6% versus 6.1%).

Breast cancers detected through screening are associated with a better prognosis, with increased detection of early, low-grade, and smaller hormone-positive tumours12,27. Despite this, only two studies account for mode of referral in their analysis12,30. Superior OS (HR 0.66 (95% c.i. 0.59 to 0.75), P < 0.001) and BCSS (HR 0.63 (95% c.i. 0.52 to 0.77), P < 0.001) were identified in patients presenting through the screening pathway compared with symptomatic patients, consistent with these two previous studies. Superior survival outcomes associated with conservation surgery were maintained after adjustment for mode of referral.

The present study identified inferior OS (HR 1.46 (95% c.i. 1.29 to 1.65), P < 0.001) and BCSS (HR 1.34 (95% c.i. 1.11 to 1.60), P = 0.002) for those patients living in the most deprived areas, in line with a large, population study from Sweden11, albeit using different markers for socio-economic deprivation. Other studies have not adjusted for socio-economic status. Patients living in more deprived areas are less likely to engage in screening programmes, and present later with more advanced disease, which may mean Mx is the only suitable surgical treatment. In addition, these patients are less likely to comply with endocrine or biological therapy, which may also impact survival outcomes. It must also be acknowledged that a higher proportion of patients from the most affluent areas underwent OBCS (25.1%), with a lower proportion from the most deprived areas (19.3%), suggesting a degree of selection bias and a limitation of the present study.

Many previous studies have only included patients with T1–T2 disease to enable fair comparison between conservation surgery and Mx10,11,13. Evidence for survival outcomes for T3 tumours is less well described8 and, to the authors’ knowledge, there are no studies including T4 tumours. Although larger tumour size may be an indication for Mx, everyone now works in an era in which neoadjuvant treatments can be given to reduce tumour size and/or oncoplastic techniques can be used to enable conservation surgery32. The present study included all tumour sizes (T1–T4) and survival outcomes were maintained in adjusted analysis. Similarly, node-positive disease was associated with inferior OS and BCSS, but superior BCSS after conservation surgery remained significant in multivariable analysis, supporting previous evidence11,13,30. In terms of receptor profile expression, inferior BCSS was found to be associated with ER+HER2+ (HR 1.51 (95% c.i. 1.12 to 2.02), P = 0.007) and ER−HER2− (HR 1.41 (95% c.i. 1.01 to 1.97), P = 0.042) tumours; however, this did not impact survival outcomes in adjusted analysis.

A larger surgical insult is associated with an increased risk of postoperative complications and has been associated with inferior survival in other cancer subtypes33,34. de Boniface et al.35 analysed the impact of postoperative complications on survival in breast cancer. Major postoperative complications were more common after Mx with or without reconstruction (7.3% and 4.3% respectively) compared with BCS (2.3%), with associated inferior OS and BCSS after adjustment for co-morbidity and clinicopathological confounders. In the Scottish audit of oncoplastic breast conservations a trend towards decreased disease-free survival at 5 years was found in patients with major postoperative complications after OBCS; however, this was not statistically significant (86.11% versus 92.1%, P = 0.236)36.

Surgical trauma activates a systemic stress response with immunosuppressive effects and pro-inflammatory pathways, which may in turn promote growth of any residual local tumour cells, circulating tumour cells, and micrometastases37. Postoperative complications are thought to add to, prolong, and accelerate these processes and, in addition, can cause delays to adjuvant systemic treatments37. The underlying mechanism is multifactorial and not yet fully understood38,39. Although information on postoperative complications is not available for the patients in the present study, postoperative complications may have contributed to the inferior survival outcomes seen in the Mx ± RT cohort and may also explain why Mx + RTx was associated with the lowest BCSS in unadjusted analysis.

Despite improved overall and relative survival after BCS in all patient subgroups, van Maaren et al.10 only found significantly improved 10-year disease-free survival in the T1 N0 subgroup. Studies assessing the relationship between treatment modality and disease recurrence are lacking, particularly for more advanced disease, and further research is required. Disease recurrence causes significant patient anxiety—better understanding of risk factors is an important research priority for both patients and clinicians40.

This large, population-based study demonstrates survival benefit after conservation surgery coupled with RTx compared with Mx ± RTx. All data were collected prospectively and the selected study interval allows for up to 13.6 years of follow-up. Tumours of all sizes were included and it was possible to adjust for any potential survival benefit associated with tumours detected through screening. In addition, similar survival benefit amongst patients undergoing OBCS + RTx compared with Mx ± RTx is shown, which has not been demonstrated in the existing literature.

The study data set did not include information about the reasons behind choices made around treatment modalities for each of the individual clinical situations. Also, information regarding patient co-morbidities was not available; however, it was possible to adjust for socio-economic deprivation, which might be seen as a proxy for multi-morbidity. Selection bias associated with OBCS has already been mentioned as a limitation of the present study—patients from more affluent areas are likely to be better educated with improved health literacy and fewer co-morbidities, which can affect survival rates regardless of treatment modality. This may also explain the differences observed for OS comparing sBCS and OBCS (Fig. 4), albeit this was not statistically significant. In addition, data on RTx site(s) and dosage were lacking and disease recurrence is not collected as part of the National Cancer Registry. The present study found no impact of chemotherapy on BCSS—one explanation for this may be that the earlier cohort pre-dates routine genomic testing for ER+HER2− tumour subtypes in determining chemotherapy benefit in addition to endocrine therapy41. Future studies should: explore the impact of patient co-morbidity on survival outcomes after different treatment modalities; account for different RTx regimens; and consider if different treatment modalities impact disease recurrence in breast cancer.

Both OS and BCSS are superior after BCS + RTx and OBCS + RTx compared with Mx ± RTx, after adjustment for other known prognostic factors, in this Scottish population-based study. The findings should inform discussion of surgical treatment options with patients with breast cancer.

Funding

The authors have no funding to declare.

Acknowledgements

The authors thank the WoSCAN team for accepting their request for data extraction and facilitating linkage to the SIMD tool and the ACaDMe data mart.

Author contributions

Mhairi Mactier (Data curation, Formal analysis, Writing—original draft, Writing—review & editing), James Mansell (Conceptualization, Methodology, Writing—review & editing), Laura Arthur (Methodology, Supervision, Validation, Writing—review & editing), Julie Doughty (Supervision, Validation, Writing—review & editing), and Laszlo Romics (Conceptualization, Methodology, Supervision, Validation, Writing—review & editing)

Disclosure

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Supplementary material

Supplementary material is available at BJS Open online.

Data availability

The authors are willing to make their data, analytical methods, and study materials available to other researchers upon reasonable request to the corresponding author, including relevant ethical and legal permissions. The analysis presented was not pre-registered.

References

2

Fisher
 
B
,
Montague
 
E
,
Redmond
 
C
,
Barton
 
B
,
Borland
 
D
,
Fisher
 
ER
 et al.  
Comparison of radical mastectomy with alternative treatments for primary breast cancer. A first report of results from a prospective randomized clinical trial
.
Cancer
 
1977
;
39
:
2827
2839

3

Fisher
 
B
,
Bauer
 
M
,
Margolese
 
R
,
Poisson
 
R
,
Pilch
 
Y
,
Redmond
 
C
 et al.  
Five-year results of a randomized clinical trial comparing total mastectomy and segmental mastectomy with or without radiation in the treatment of breast cancer
.
N Eng J Med
 
1985
;
312
:
665
673

4

Veronesi
 
U
,
Cascinelli
 
N
,
Mariani
 
L
,
Greco
 
M
,
Saccozzi
 
R
,
Luini
 
A
 et al.  
Twenty-year follow-up of a randomized study comparing breast-conserving surgery with radical mastectomy for early breast cancer
.
N Eng J Med
 
2002
;
347
:
1227
1232

5

Fisher
 
B
,
Anderson
 
S
,
Bryant
 
J
,
Margolese
 
RG
,
Deutsch
 
M
,
Fisher
 
ER
 et al.  
Twenty-year follow-up of a randomized trial comparing total mastectomy, lumpectomy, and lumpectomy plus irradiation for the treatment of invasive breast cancer
.
N Eng J Med
 
2002
;
347
:
1233
1241

6

Early Breast Cancer Trialists’ Collaborative Group
.
Effects of radiotherapy and surgery in early breast cancer—an overview of the randomized trials
.
N Eng J Med
 
1995
;
333
:
1444
1456

7

Murphy
 
J
,
Gandhi
 
A
.
Does mastectomy reduce overall survival in early stage breast cancer?
 
Clin Oncol (R Coll Radiol)
 
2021
;
33
:
440
447

8

Christiansen
 
P
,
Mele
 
M
,
Bodilsen
 
A
,
Rocco
 
N
,
Zachariae
 
R
.
Breast-conserving surgery or mastectomy?
 
Ann Surg Open
 
2022
;
3
:
e205

9

Rajan
 
KK
,
Fairhurst
 
K
,
Birkbeck
 
B
,
Novintan
 
S
,
Wilson
 
R
,
Savović
 
J
 et al.  
Overall survival after mastectomy versus breast-conserving surgery with adjuvant radiotherapy for early-stage breast cancer: meta-analysis
.
BJS Open
 
2024
;
8
:
zrae040

10

van Maaren
 
MC
,
de Munck
 
L
,
de Bock
 
GH
,
Jobsen
 
JJ
,
van Dalen
 
T
,
Linn
 
SC
 et al.  
10 year survival after breast-conserving surgery plus radiotherapy compared with mastectomy in early breast cancer in the Netherlands: a population-based study
.
Lancet Oncol
 
2016
;
17
:
1158
1170

11

de Boniface
 
J
,
Szulkin
 
R
,
Johansson
 
ALV
.
Survival after breast conservation vs mastectomy adjusted for comorbidity and socioeconomic status: a Swedish national 6-year follow-up of 48 986 women
.
JAMA Surg
 
2021
;
156
:
628
637

12

Hofvind
 
S
,
Holen
 
Å
,
Aas
 
T
,
Roman
 
M
,
Sebuødegård
 
S
,
Akslen
 
LA
.
Women treated with breast conserving surgery do better than those with mastectomy independent of detection mode, prognostic and predictive tumor characteristics
.
Eur J Surg Oncol
 
2015
;
41
:
1417
1422

13

Agarwal
 
S
,
Pappas
 
L
,
Neumayer
 
L
,
Kokeny
 
K
,
Agarwal
 
J
.
Effect of breast conservation therapy vs mastectomy on disease-specific survival for early-stage breast cancer
.
JAMA Surg
 
2014
;
149
:
267
274

14

Macmillan
 
RD
,
McCulley
 
SJ
.
Oncoplastic breast surgery: what, when and for whom?
 
Curr Breast Cancer Rep
 
2016
;
8
:
112
117

15

Lehtimäki
 
T
,
Lundin
 
M
,
Linder
 
N
,
Sihto
 
H
,
Holli
 
K
,
Turpeenniemi-Hujanen
 
T
 et al.  
Long-term prognosis of breast cancer detected by mammography screening or other methods
.
Breast Cancer Res
 
2011
;
13
:
R134

16

Public Health Scotland
. Breast Cancer, Data Definitions for the National Minimum Core Dataset to Support the Introduction of Breast Quality Performance Indicators, Version 5.0. November 2023. https://webarchive.nrscotland.gov.uk/20231129164435/https://www.isdscotland.org/Health%2DTopics/Cancer/Cancer%2DAudit/ (accessed December 2023)

17

Clough
 
KB
,
Kaufman
 
GJ
,
Nos
 
C
,
Buccimazza
 
I
,
Sarfati
 
IM
.
Improving breast cancer surgery: a classification and quadrant per quadrant atlas for oncoplastic surgery
.
Ann Surg Oncol
 
2010
;
17
:
1375
1391

18

Hayes
 
D
,
Allred
 
C
,
Anderson
 
B
.
American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC), Cancer Staging Manual (7th edn)
.
New York, NY
:
Springer
,
2009

19

Hortobaygi
 
G
,
Connolly
 
J
,
D’Orsi
 
C
.
American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC), Cancer Staging Manual (8th edn)
.
New York, NY
:
Springer
,
2017

20

Shousha
 
S
.
Oestrogen receptor status of breast carcinoma: Allred/H score conversion table
.
Histopathology
 
2008
;
53
:
346
347

21

Scottish Government
. Scottish Multiple Index of Deprivation 2020. https://www.gov.scot/collections/scottish-index-of-multiple-deprivation-2020/ (accessed December 2023)

22

West of Scotland Cancer Network
. Information Governance Framework. May 2023. https://www.woscan.scot.nhs.uk/wp-content/uploads/Final-Published-WoSCAN-Information-Governance-Framework_May23_v1.3.pdf (accessed June 2024)

23

Juneja
 
P
,
Bonora
 
M
,
Haviland
 
JS
,
Harris
 
E
,
Evans
 
P
,
Somaiah
 
N
.
Does breast composition influence late adverse effects in breast radiotherapy?
 
Breast
 
2016
;
26
:
25
30

24

Morrow
 
ES
,
Stallard
 
S
,
Doughty
 
J
,
Malyon
 
A
,
Barber
 
M
,
Dixon
 
JM
 et al.  
Oncoplastic breast conservation occupies a niche between standard breast conservation and mastectomy—a population-based prospective audit in Scotland
.
Eur J Surg Oncol
 
2019
;
45
:
1806
1811

25

Mansell
 
J
,
Weiler-Mithoff
 
E
,
Stallard
 
S
,
Doughty
 
JC
,
Mallon
 
E
,
Romics
 
L
.
Oncoplastic breast conservation surgery is oncologically safe when compared to wide local excision and mastectomy
.
Breast
 
2017
;
32
:
179
185

26

Almahariq
 
MF
,
Quinn
 
TJ
,
Siddiqui
 
Z
,
Jawad
 
MS
,
Chen
 
PY
,
Gustafson
 
GS
 et al.  
Breast conserving therapy is associated with improved overall survival compared to mastectomy in early-stage, lymph node-negative breast cancer
.
Radiother Oncol
 
2020
;
142
:
186
194

27

Lagendijk
 
M
,
van Maaren
 
MC
,
Saadatmand
 
S
,
Strobbe
 
LJA
,
Poortmans
 
PMP
,
Koppert
 
LB
 et al.  
Breast conserving therapy and mastectomy revisited: breast cancer-specific survival and the influence of prognostic factors in 129,692 patients
.
Int J Cancer
 
2018
;
142
:
165
175

28

Hwang
 
ES
,
Lichtensztajn
 
DY
,
Gomez
 
SL
,
Fowble
 
B
,
Clarke
 
CA
.
Survival after lumpectomy and mastectomy for early stage invasive breast cancer: the effect of age and hormone receptor status
.
Cancer
 
2013
;
119
:
1402
1411

29

Christiansen
 
P
,
Carstensen
 
SL
,
Ejlertsen
 
B
,
Kroman
 
N
,
Offersen
 
B
,
Bodilsen
 
A
 et al.  
Breast conserving surgery versus mastectomy: overall and relative survival—a population based study by the Danish Breast Cancer Cooperative Group (DBCG)
.
Acta Oncol
 
2018
;
57
:
19
25

30

Hartmann-Johnsen
 
OJ
,
Kåresen
 
R
,
Schlichting
 
E
,
Nygård
 
JF
.
Better survival after breast-conserving therapy compared to mastectomy when axillary node status is positive in early-stage breast cancer: a registry-based follow-up study of 6387 Norwegian women participating in screening, primarily operated between 1998 and 2009
.
World J Surg Oncol
 
2017
;
15
:
118

31

Miller
 
K
,
Gannon
 
MR
,
Medina
 
J
,
Clements
 
K
,
Dodwell
 
D
,
Horgan
 
K
 et al.  
Mastectomy patterns among older women with early invasive breast cancer in England and Wales: a population-based cohort study
.
J Geriatr Oncol
 
2023
;
14
:
1879
4068

32

Gilmour
 
A
,
Cutress
 
R
,
Gandhi
 
A
,
Harcourt
 
D
,
Little
 
K
,
Mansell
 
J
 et al.  
Oncoplastic breast surgery: a guide to good practice
.
Eur J Surg Oncol
 
2021
;
47
:
2272
2285

33

Krarup
 
PM
,
Nordholm-Carstensen
 
A
,
Jorgensen
 
LN
,
Harling
 
H
.
Anastomotic leak increases distant recurrence and long-term mortality after curative resection for colonic cancer: a nationwide cohort study
.
Ann Surg
 
2014
;
259
:
930
938

34

Andalib
 
A
,
Ramana-Kumar
 
AV
,
Bartlett
 
G
,
Franco
 
EL
,
Ferri
 
LE
.
Influence of postoperative infectious complications on long-term survival of lung cancer patients: a population-based cohort study
.
J Thorac Oncol
 
2013
;
8
:
554
561

35

de Boniface
 
J
,
Szulkin
 
R
,
Johansson
 
ALV
.
Major surgical postoperative complications and survival in breast cancer: Swedish population-based register study in 57 152 women
.
Br J Surg
 
2022
;
109
:
977
983

36

Romics
 
L
,
Macaskill
 
EJ
,
Fernandez
 
T
,
Simpson
 
L
,
Morrow
 
E
,
Pitsinis
 
V
 et al.  
A population-based audit of surgical practice and outcomes of oncoplastic breast conservations in Scotland—an analysis of 589 patients
.
Eur J Surg Oncol
 
2018
;
44
:
939
944

37

Beecher
 
SM
,
O'Leary
 
DP
,
McLaughlin
 
R
,
Kerin
 
MJ
.
The impact of surgical complications on cancer recurrence rates: a literature review
.
Oncol Res Treat
 
2018
;
41
:
478
482

38

Savioli
 
F
,
Edwards
 
J
,
McMillan
 
D
,
Stallard
 
S
,
Doughty
 
J
,
Romics
 
L
.
The effect of postoperative complications on survival and recurrence after surgery for breast cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis
.
Crit Rev Oncol Hematol
 
2020
;
155
:
103075

39

O’Connor
 
,
Kiely
 
PA
,
Dunne
 
CP
.
The relationship between post-surgery infection and breast cancer recurrence
.
J Hosp Infect
 
2020
;
106
:
522
535

40

James Lind Alliance Priority Setting Partnerships
. Breast Cancer Surgery Top 10. 2022. https://www.jla.nihr.ac.uk/priority-setting-partnerships/breast-cancer-surgery#tab-26461 (accessed October 2023)

41

Sparano
 
JA
,
Gray
 
RJ
,
Makower
 
DF
,
Pritchard
 
KI
,
Albain
 
KS
,
Hayes
 
DF
 et al.  
Adjuvant chemotherapy guided by a 21-gene expression assay in breast cancer
.
N Engl J Med
 
2018
;
379
:
111
121

Author notes

Early results were presented to the Association of Breast Surgery Conference (May 2023) and final results were presented to the British Breast Group Annual Meeting (June 2024), the Controversies in Breast Cancer Conference (September 2024), and a meeting of the European Society of Surgical Oncology (October 2024).

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Supplementary data