
Contents
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Military Threats, Conflicts, and Sovereign Bond Prices Military Threats, Conflicts, and Sovereign Bond Prices
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Default and Military Intervention Default and Military Intervention
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Efficacy of Military Intervention Efficacy of Military Intervention
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Impact of War Events on Market Prices Impact of War Events on Market Prices
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Civil War and Allied Intervention (1917–1921) Civil War and Allied Intervention (1917–1921)
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Initial Phase (1917–1918) Initial Phase (1917–1918)
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The Decisive Phase (March–november 1919) The Decisive Phase (March–november 1919)
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The Final Phase (1920–1921) The Final Phase (1920–1921)
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The Positions of the White Army Leaders on the Debt The Positions of the White Army Leaders on the Debt
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Three Military Intervention and the Impact of War Events: Hopes for “White” Repayment
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Published:May 2016
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Abstract
This chapter first reviews the literature suggesting that military intervention or the threat to actually use gunboat diplomacy may prompt sovereigns to honour their debts. Military threat and not just actual intervention had in the past a real impact on how markets valued the likelihood of default. In the Russian case, the situation was extremely complex. Most leaders of counter-revolutionary movements declared their willingness to repay Russia’s debt should they come to power. A change of government could thus have paved the way to reimbursement. To understand the role played by the White armies the chapter details the evolution of the Russian civil war, including the role played by foreign military intervention, and the changes brought by the Russo-Polish war.
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