Left: expected proportion, $Eo{C∣At,S(T)}$⁠, of Ireland that exceeds a temperature of $T∘$C in an extreme event given that at least one site in Ireland (at the station network) exceeds $T∘$C according to $M2$⁠. Right: the equivalent unconditioned estimates, i.e. estimates of $Eo(C;t,T)$⁠. Estimates are plotted against T for 1942 (solid line) and for 2020 (dashed line). The shaded regions give associated pointwise $95%$ confidence intervals, based on $10,000$ simulated fields for each 500 bootstrap sample datasets.