Observed and simulated hourly wage growth incidence curves—According to tenure, source: Author’s calculations using the samples described in Section 3.1. The black line |$g(p)$| is the observed wage growth incidence curve between the first year (T0) last year (T1) while the gray lines, |${g}^s(p)$|⁠, shows the counterfactual growth incidence curve, comparing the wage in T1 for job-to-job movers, from the occupational choice simulation using the tenure level as an indicator of higher/lower change probability