Parallel Trends by Treatment and Control Group.

Source: Mexican National Survey on Occupation and Employment (ENOE), authors’ analysis.

Note: The figure illustrates the shares which are calculated predicting both school attendance and the probability to work controlling for the full set of observable characteristics. All children are born in the year 2000. Children in the control group are born between January 1 and June 11. Children in the treatment group are born between June 12 and December 31.The figure shows that before the ban, schooling and employment followed a similar trend with a minor-level difference between groups. Schooling is decreasing after the second quarter of 2015 for the control group because lower secondary education is completed at age 15. For the treatment group, school enrollment also decreases, but not as steeply as in the control group. The size of the gap between both groups increases considerably after 2015. For employment rate we observe a similar pattern, i.e., a small-level difference and a gap that opens up after the third quarter of 2015.