Estimates of the weekly averaged instantaneous reproduction number $17∑u=06Rt−u$ based on the random walk (RW, upper), autoregressive (AR, middle) and piece-wise constant model (PC, lower). We used hospital data from 8 March 2020 to 1 July 2021, test data from 1 August 2020 to 1 July 2021. We used $B=20,000$ particles. Corresponding not-averaged daily estimates are given in the online supplementary Figure C.2. The first vertical stippled green line corresponds to the date at which test data are included in the analysis, the second stippled green vertical line corresponds to the last date with observations, after that Bayesian prediction is performed. Blue shadow bands indicate posterior uncertainty quantiles. The red curves correspond to 50% median-centred credibility intervals only based on hospitalization data.