Global GHG emissions and temperature rise. Net emissions including removals (billion metric tons of CO₂-equivalent). Policy and technological progress over the past 8 years has significantly reduced the global temperature outlook. Models now project very likely temperature increases of 2.0 to 4.0°C by century's end, with a 2.3 to 3.4°C likely range and a mean of 2.8°C. While this is progress from just 8 years ago, it still represents a dire climate future—falling significantly short of the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to well below 2°C (204).