Figure 4
Total probability that resistance evolves in our model. (A–C) Ptot as a function of μ and δ in our standard model, assuming three different effective population sizes (A) Ne=105, (B) 106, and (C) 107. Larger values of Ne increase the probability of resistance, yet even in the scenario with Ne=105, low values of δ<10−5 are still required if resistance from NHEJ is to be prevented. (D–F) Ptot as a function of μ and δ for fixed Ne=106 in three limiting cases of our standard model: (D) scenario of a very weak drive with cleavage rate c=0.2. Comparison with (B) shows that this has almost no effect on Ptot. (E) Scenario with low driver costs, sd0=sdd/2=0.01. While this allows for larger values of δ, the dependence on μ does not change much, since PSGV remains largely unaffected by the driver costs (compare with Figure 2B). (F) Scenario in which resistance alleles carry (codominant) fitness costs almost as large (90%) as those of the driver, sr0=srr/2=0.09. In this case, resistance is unlikely to evolve from SGV or de novo mutation. However, it is still likely to evolve by NHEJ unless δ<10−5.

Total probability that resistance evolves in our model. (A–C) Ptot as a function of μ and δ in our standard model, assuming three different effective population sizes (A) Ne=105, (B) 106, and (C) 107. Larger values of Ne increase the probability of resistance, yet even in the scenario with Ne=105, low values of δ<105 are still required if resistance from NHEJ is to be prevented. (D–F) Ptot as a function of μ and δ for fixed Ne=106 in three limiting cases of our standard model: (D) scenario of a very weak drive with cleavage rate c=0.2. Comparison with (B) shows that this has almost no effect on Ptot. (E) Scenario with low driver costs, sd0=sdd/2=0.01. While this allows for larger values of δ, the dependence on μ does not change much, since PSGV remains largely unaffected by the driver costs (compare with Figure 2B). (F) Scenario in which resistance alleles carry (codominant) fitness costs almost as large (90%) as those of the driver, sr0=srr/2=0.09. In this case, resistance is unlikely to evolve from SGV or de novo mutation. However, it is still likely to evolve by NHEJ unless δ<105.

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