Left-hand panel—ΔBIC (IOL-exponential) as a function of time for 500 synthetic earthquake sequences. Right-hand panel—mean (solid blue) and 5 and 95 percentile scores (dashed blue) of ΔBIC. ΔBIC (IOL-constant rate) mean and percentiles also shown in right-hand panel for comparison. In both cases, negative values indicate a preference for the IOL. ΔBIC = 0 is indicated by the horizontal dashed black line.