A single realization of the inverse Omori law with parameter values of k = 50, p = 0.9 and t_e = 500, shown at 90 per cent of the eruption time (t₁ = 450). The daily numbers of earthquakes are shown by vertical bars; the total number of earthquakes is shown by the solid black line. Dashed red line illustrates an example model fit, formulated for the total number of earthquakes, and extrapolated to the forecast eruption time.