The life expectancy of adult Onchocerca volvulus multiply exposed to ivermectin. The dashed and dotted lines in panel A show the estimated life expectancy (in years) of adult female O. volvulus exposed to annual and 3-monthly treatments with ivermectin at a standard dose (150 µg/kg) (there is no substantive difference in the corresponding estimates for a high dose of 800 µg/kg dose, Figures 2 and 3). The solid line in this panel (A) depicts the estimated life expectancy of hypothetically unexposed worms. In panel (B), the dashed and dotted lines express the estimated life expectancies as percentage reductions compared to hypothetically unexposed worms. Estimates are plotted against the date of infection, that is, the time of establishment of female worms. Treatment dates with ivermectin are represented by the triangles: 3-monthly treatments on the top row and annual treatments below. Hence, worms that establish at an earlier date are exposed to more treatments and incur greater reductions in life expectancy. In each panel, gray shaded areas represent 95% Bayesian credible intervals. Life expectancies were calculated from the estimated parameter posteriors of model 3A (the best fitting model, see Supplementary Table 3 for deviance information criteria). Details of these calculations are given in the Supplementary Materials.
This PDF is available to Subscribers Only
View Article Abstract & Purchase OptionsFor full access to this pdf, sign in to an existing account, or purchase an annual subscription.