Summary of estimated parameters that define the antifilarial activity of multiple doses of ivermectin under different assumptions on the transmission dynamics during the trial. In each panel, the data points and vertical lines indicate the means and 95% Bayesian credible intervals (BCIs) of the posterior distributions estimated from variants A (constant short-term and long-term transmission), B (seasonal short-term transmission; constant long-term transmission), C (constant short-term transmission; declining long-term transmission), and D (seasonal short-term transmission; declining long-term transmission) of the best fitting model 3 (see Supplementary Table 3 for deviance information criteria). The horizontal dotted lines in each panel indicate the null (zero) effect of each parameter. Hence, parameters with BCIs that cross the dotted line can be interpreted as not statistically significantly different from zero. For example, in panels (A) and (D) none of the BCIs include 0, indicating statistically significant (permanent) macrofilaricidal and sterilizing activity of multiple-dose ivermectin regimens. By contrast, in panels (B) and (E) all BCIs cross 0, indicating no statistically significant effect of dose on either macrofilaricidal or permanent sterilizing activity. The parameter posteriors estimated from the model variants are generally similar and therefore robust to different assumptions on the transmission dynamics during the trial.