Days on Which Exposures Occurred to Both the Index Case Patient and Poultry, With Exposure Scores for Contact Case Patients in 21 Clusters of Human Infection With H7N9 Virusa
| Cluster No. . | Symptom Onset Dateb . | Days Before Symptom Onset on Which Contact Case Patient Was Exposed to Possible Infection Sources . | Exposure Score for Mean Incubation of 3.4 d . | Probability of Person-to-Person Transmission . | Sensitivity Analysis: Exposure Score for Mean Incubation of 5 d . | Sensitivity Analysis: Probability of Person-to-Person Transmission . | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Index Patient . | Poultry . | Index Patientc . | Poultryd . | Index Patient . | Poultry . | ||||
| 1 | 19/2/2013 | 1–9 | None | 1.00 | 0.00 | Probable | 0.98 | 0.00 | Probable |
| 2 | 2/4/2013 | 1–7 | None | 0.97 | 0.00 | Probable | 0.85 | 0.00 | Probable |
| 3 | 20/3/2013 | 2, 6–9 | None | 0.34 | 0.00 | Probable | 0.51 | 0.00 | Probable |
| 4 | 27/4/2013 | 7–12 | 1–12 | 0.08 | 1.00 | Unlikely | 0.29 | 1.00 | Unlikely |
| 5 | 29/11/2013 | 3–4, 6–7 | None | 0.58 | 0.00 | Probable | 0.60 | 0.00 | Probable |
| 6 | 14/1/2014 | 6–12 | 1–12 | 0.18 | 1.00 | Unlikely | 0.48 | 1.00 | Unlikely |
| 7 | 14/1/2014 | 1–5 | None | 0.82 | 0.00 | Probable | 0.51 | 0.00 | Probable |
| 8a | 20/1/2014 | 1–4 | 3 | 0.76 | 0.22 | Probable | 0.51 | 0.10 | Probable |
| 8b | 23/1/2014 | 1–2,e 5, 8–10f | 3, 8–12 | 0.42 | 0.56 | Possible | 0.40 | 0.78 | Possible |
| 9 | 30/1/2014 | 2–7 | 1–12 | 0.91 | 1.00 | Possible | 0.84 | 1.00 | Possible |
| 10 | 31/1/2014 | 2–6 | 1–12 | 0.86 | 1.00 | Possible | 0.69 | 1.00 | Possible |
| 11 | 28/1/2014 | 1–3 | 1–12 | 0.45 | 1.00 | Unlikely | 0.16 | 1.00 | Unlikely |
| 12 | 03/02/2014 | 1–5 | 1–12 | 0.82 | 1.00 | Possible | 0.51 | 1.00 | Possible |
| 13 | 8/2/2014 | 5–10 | 7–12 | 0.34 | 0.08 | Probable | 0.68 | 0.29 | Probable |
| 14 | 26/2/2014 | 1–4 | 6–12 | 0.66 | 0.18 | Probable | 0.32g | 0.48g | Possible |
| 15 | 15/5/2014 | 1–5 | None | 0.82 | 0.00 | Probable | 0.51 | 0.00 | Probable |
| 16 | 11/1/2015 | 2, 8–12 | 1, 3–7 | 0.20 | 0.80 | Unlikely | 0.19 | 0.80 | Unlikely |
| 17 | 17/1/2015 | 1–4 | None | 0.66 | 0.00 | Probable | 0.32 | 0.00 | Probable |
| 18 | 5/1/2015 | 1 | 1–12 | 0.06 | 1.00 | Unlikely | 0.01 | 1.00 | Unlikely |
| 19 | 4/2/2015 | 5–12 | 1, 9–12 | 0.34 | 0.07 | Probable | 0.68 | 0.07 | Probable |
| 20 | 7/2/2015 | 4 | 1–12 | 0.21 | 1.00 | Unlikely | 0.16 | 1.00 | Unlikely |
| 21 | 24/2/2015 | 1–6 | None | 0.92 | 0.00 | Probable | 0.70 | 0.00 | Probable |
| Cluster No. . | Symptom Onset Dateb . | Days Before Symptom Onset on Which Contact Case Patient Was Exposed to Possible Infection Sources . | Exposure Score for Mean Incubation of 3.4 d . | Probability of Person-to-Person Transmission . | Sensitivity Analysis: Exposure Score for Mean Incubation of 5 d . | Sensitivity Analysis: Probability of Person-to-Person Transmission . | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Index Patient . | Poultry . | Index Patientc . | Poultryd . | Index Patient . | Poultry . | ||||
| 1 | 19/2/2013 | 1–9 | None | 1.00 | 0.00 | Probable | 0.98 | 0.00 | Probable |
| 2 | 2/4/2013 | 1–7 | None | 0.97 | 0.00 | Probable | 0.85 | 0.00 | Probable |
| 3 | 20/3/2013 | 2, 6–9 | None | 0.34 | 0.00 | Probable | 0.51 | 0.00 | Probable |
| 4 | 27/4/2013 | 7–12 | 1–12 | 0.08 | 1.00 | Unlikely | 0.29 | 1.00 | Unlikely |
| 5 | 29/11/2013 | 3–4, 6–7 | None | 0.58 | 0.00 | Probable | 0.60 | 0.00 | Probable |
| 6 | 14/1/2014 | 6–12 | 1–12 | 0.18 | 1.00 | Unlikely | 0.48 | 1.00 | Unlikely |
| 7 | 14/1/2014 | 1–5 | None | 0.82 | 0.00 | Probable | 0.51 | 0.00 | Probable |
| 8a | 20/1/2014 | 1–4 | 3 | 0.76 | 0.22 | Probable | 0.51 | 0.10 | Probable |
| 8b | 23/1/2014 | 1–2,e 5, 8–10f | 3, 8–12 | 0.42 | 0.56 | Possible | 0.40 | 0.78 | Possible |
| 9 | 30/1/2014 | 2–7 | 1–12 | 0.91 | 1.00 | Possible | 0.84 | 1.00 | Possible |
| 10 | 31/1/2014 | 2–6 | 1–12 | 0.86 | 1.00 | Possible | 0.69 | 1.00 | Possible |
| 11 | 28/1/2014 | 1–3 | 1–12 | 0.45 | 1.00 | Unlikely | 0.16 | 1.00 | Unlikely |
| 12 | 03/02/2014 | 1–5 | 1–12 | 0.82 | 1.00 | Possible | 0.51 | 1.00 | Possible |
| 13 | 8/2/2014 | 5–10 | 7–12 | 0.34 | 0.08 | Probable | 0.68 | 0.29 | Probable |
| 14 | 26/2/2014 | 1–4 | 6–12 | 0.66 | 0.18 | Probable | 0.32g | 0.48g | Possible |
| 15 | 15/5/2014 | 1–5 | None | 0.82 | 0.00 | Probable | 0.51 | 0.00 | Probable |
| 16 | 11/1/2015 | 2, 8–12 | 1, 3–7 | 0.20 | 0.80 | Unlikely | 0.19 | 0.80 | Unlikely |
| 17 | 17/1/2015 | 1–4 | None | 0.66 | 0.00 | Probable | 0.32 | 0.00 | Probable |
| 18 | 5/1/2015 | 1 | 1–12 | 0.06 | 1.00 | Unlikely | 0.01 | 1.00 | Unlikely |
| 19 | 4/2/2015 | 5–12 | 1, 9–12 | 0.34 | 0.07 | Probable | 0.68 | 0.07 | Probable |
| 20 | 7/2/2015 | 4 | 1–12 | 0.21 | 1.00 | Unlikely | 0.16 | 1.00 | Unlikely |
| 21 | 24/2/2015 | 1–6 | None | 0.92 | 0.00 | Probable | 0.70 | 0.00 | Probable |
aExposure scores were calculated based on an incubation distribution with a mean of 3.4 days (main analysis) or 5 days (sensitivity analysis).
bFormat: date/month/year.
cScore for exposure to index case indicates the probability that exposure by a contact case patient to a cluster’s index case patient during the former’s potential incubation period resulted in person-to-person transmission of influenza A(H7N9) virus infection.
dScore for exposure to other infection sources indicates the probability that exposure by a contact case patient to poultry or another possible infection source resulted in person-to-person transmission of influenza A(H7N9) virus infection.
eContact with index case patient (father).
fContact with contact case patient 1 (daughter).
gAssessment of the likelihood of person-to-person transmission differed between the main and the sensitivity analysis.
Days on Which Exposures Occurred to Both the Index Case Patient and Poultry, With Exposure Scores for Contact Case Patients in 21 Clusters of Human Infection With H7N9 Virusa
| Cluster No. . | Symptom Onset Dateb . | Days Before Symptom Onset on Which Contact Case Patient Was Exposed to Possible Infection Sources . | Exposure Score for Mean Incubation of 3.4 d . | Probability of Person-to-Person Transmission . | Sensitivity Analysis: Exposure Score for Mean Incubation of 5 d . | Sensitivity Analysis: Probability of Person-to-Person Transmission . | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Index Patient . | Poultry . | Index Patientc . | Poultryd . | Index Patient . | Poultry . | ||||
| 1 | 19/2/2013 | 1–9 | None | 1.00 | 0.00 | Probable | 0.98 | 0.00 | Probable |
| 2 | 2/4/2013 | 1–7 | None | 0.97 | 0.00 | Probable | 0.85 | 0.00 | Probable |
| 3 | 20/3/2013 | 2, 6–9 | None | 0.34 | 0.00 | Probable | 0.51 | 0.00 | Probable |
| 4 | 27/4/2013 | 7–12 | 1–12 | 0.08 | 1.00 | Unlikely | 0.29 | 1.00 | Unlikely |
| 5 | 29/11/2013 | 3–4, 6–7 | None | 0.58 | 0.00 | Probable | 0.60 | 0.00 | Probable |
| 6 | 14/1/2014 | 6–12 | 1–12 | 0.18 | 1.00 | Unlikely | 0.48 | 1.00 | Unlikely |
| 7 | 14/1/2014 | 1–5 | None | 0.82 | 0.00 | Probable | 0.51 | 0.00 | Probable |
| 8a | 20/1/2014 | 1–4 | 3 | 0.76 | 0.22 | Probable | 0.51 | 0.10 | Probable |
| 8b | 23/1/2014 | 1–2,e 5, 8–10f | 3, 8–12 | 0.42 | 0.56 | Possible | 0.40 | 0.78 | Possible |
| 9 | 30/1/2014 | 2–7 | 1–12 | 0.91 | 1.00 | Possible | 0.84 | 1.00 | Possible |
| 10 | 31/1/2014 | 2–6 | 1–12 | 0.86 | 1.00 | Possible | 0.69 | 1.00 | Possible |
| 11 | 28/1/2014 | 1–3 | 1–12 | 0.45 | 1.00 | Unlikely | 0.16 | 1.00 | Unlikely |
| 12 | 03/02/2014 | 1–5 | 1–12 | 0.82 | 1.00 | Possible | 0.51 | 1.00 | Possible |
| 13 | 8/2/2014 | 5–10 | 7–12 | 0.34 | 0.08 | Probable | 0.68 | 0.29 | Probable |
| 14 | 26/2/2014 | 1–4 | 6–12 | 0.66 | 0.18 | Probable | 0.32g | 0.48g | Possible |
| 15 | 15/5/2014 | 1–5 | None | 0.82 | 0.00 | Probable | 0.51 | 0.00 | Probable |
| 16 | 11/1/2015 | 2, 8–12 | 1, 3–7 | 0.20 | 0.80 | Unlikely | 0.19 | 0.80 | Unlikely |
| 17 | 17/1/2015 | 1–4 | None | 0.66 | 0.00 | Probable | 0.32 | 0.00 | Probable |
| 18 | 5/1/2015 | 1 | 1–12 | 0.06 | 1.00 | Unlikely | 0.01 | 1.00 | Unlikely |
| 19 | 4/2/2015 | 5–12 | 1, 9–12 | 0.34 | 0.07 | Probable | 0.68 | 0.07 | Probable |
| 20 | 7/2/2015 | 4 | 1–12 | 0.21 | 1.00 | Unlikely | 0.16 | 1.00 | Unlikely |
| 21 | 24/2/2015 | 1–6 | None | 0.92 | 0.00 | Probable | 0.70 | 0.00 | Probable |
| Cluster No. . | Symptom Onset Dateb . | Days Before Symptom Onset on Which Contact Case Patient Was Exposed to Possible Infection Sources . | Exposure Score for Mean Incubation of 3.4 d . | Probability of Person-to-Person Transmission . | Sensitivity Analysis: Exposure Score for Mean Incubation of 5 d . | Sensitivity Analysis: Probability of Person-to-Person Transmission . | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Index Patient . | Poultry . | Index Patientc . | Poultryd . | Index Patient . | Poultry . | ||||
| 1 | 19/2/2013 | 1–9 | None | 1.00 | 0.00 | Probable | 0.98 | 0.00 | Probable |
| 2 | 2/4/2013 | 1–7 | None | 0.97 | 0.00 | Probable | 0.85 | 0.00 | Probable |
| 3 | 20/3/2013 | 2, 6–9 | None | 0.34 | 0.00 | Probable | 0.51 | 0.00 | Probable |
| 4 | 27/4/2013 | 7–12 | 1–12 | 0.08 | 1.00 | Unlikely | 0.29 | 1.00 | Unlikely |
| 5 | 29/11/2013 | 3–4, 6–7 | None | 0.58 | 0.00 | Probable | 0.60 | 0.00 | Probable |
| 6 | 14/1/2014 | 6–12 | 1–12 | 0.18 | 1.00 | Unlikely | 0.48 | 1.00 | Unlikely |
| 7 | 14/1/2014 | 1–5 | None | 0.82 | 0.00 | Probable | 0.51 | 0.00 | Probable |
| 8a | 20/1/2014 | 1–4 | 3 | 0.76 | 0.22 | Probable | 0.51 | 0.10 | Probable |
| 8b | 23/1/2014 | 1–2,e 5, 8–10f | 3, 8–12 | 0.42 | 0.56 | Possible | 0.40 | 0.78 | Possible |
| 9 | 30/1/2014 | 2–7 | 1–12 | 0.91 | 1.00 | Possible | 0.84 | 1.00 | Possible |
| 10 | 31/1/2014 | 2–6 | 1–12 | 0.86 | 1.00 | Possible | 0.69 | 1.00 | Possible |
| 11 | 28/1/2014 | 1–3 | 1–12 | 0.45 | 1.00 | Unlikely | 0.16 | 1.00 | Unlikely |
| 12 | 03/02/2014 | 1–5 | 1–12 | 0.82 | 1.00 | Possible | 0.51 | 1.00 | Possible |
| 13 | 8/2/2014 | 5–10 | 7–12 | 0.34 | 0.08 | Probable | 0.68 | 0.29 | Probable |
| 14 | 26/2/2014 | 1–4 | 6–12 | 0.66 | 0.18 | Probable | 0.32g | 0.48g | Possible |
| 15 | 15/5/2014 | 1–5 | None | 0.82 | 0.00 | Probable | 0.51 | 0.00 | Probable |
| 16 | 11/1/2015 | 2, 8–12 | 1, 3–7 | 0.20 | 0.80 | Unlikely | 0.19 | 0.80 | Unlikely |
| 17 | 17/1/2015 | 1–4 | None | 0.66 | 0.00 | Probable | 0.32 | 0.00 | Probable |
| 18 | 5/1/2015 | 1 | 1–12 | 0.06 | 1.00 | Unlikely | 0.01 | 1.00 | Unlikely |
| 19 | 4/2/2015 | 5–12 | 1, 9–12 | 0.34 | 0.07 | Probable | 0.68 | 0.07 | Probable |
| 20 | 7/2/2015 | 4 | 1–12 | 0.21 | 1.00 | Unlikely | 0.16 | 1.00 | Unlikely |
| 21 | 24/2/2015 | 1–6 | None | 0.92 | 0.00 | Probable | 0.70 | 0.00 | Probable |
aExposure scores were calculated based on an incubation distribution with a mean of 3.4 days (main analysis) or 5 days (sensitivity analysis).
bFormat: date/month/year.
cScore for exposure to index case indicates the probability that exposure by a contact case patient to a cluster’s index case patient during the former’s potential incubation period resulted in person-to-person transmission of influenza A(H7N9) virus infection.
dScore for exposure to other infection sources indicates the probability that exposure by a contact case patient to poultry or another possible infection source resulted in person-to-person transmission of influenza A(H7N9) virus infection.
eContact with index case patient (father).
fContact with contact case patient 1 (daughter).
gAssessment of the likelihood of person-to-person transmission differed between the main and the sensitivity analysis.
This PDF is available to Subscribers Only
View Article Abstract & Purchase OptionsFor full access to this pdf, sign in to an existing account, or purchase an annual subscription.
