Table 2. Open in new tab Predictors of...

Predictor	Total Subjects, No.	Subjects With VF, No. (%)	HR (95% CI)	Adjusted HR^a (95% CI)	P Value
HIV subtype
B	5465	309 (5.7)	0.54 (.43–.67)	0.87 (.63–1.21)	.41^b
C	1455	142 (9.8)	1.00	1.00
Non-B/C	1826	173 (9.5)	1.00 (.77–1.31)	1.06 (.81–1.40)	.65^b
First-line regimen					<.001
TDF + 3TC/FTC + EFV	5978	345 (5.8)	1.00	1.00
TDF + 3TC/FTC + NVP	526	46 (8.8)	1.43 (1.05–1.94)	1.38 (1.01–1.89)
TDF + 3TC/FTC + ATV/r	869	97 (11.2)	2.07 (1.65–2.59)	2.07 (1.64–2.59)
TDF + 3TC/FTC + DRV/r	585	50 (8.6)	2.13 (1.58–2.87)	2.05 (1.50–2.80)
TDF + 3TC/FTC + LPV/r	788	86 (10.9)	1.73 (1.37–2.20)	1.48 (1.16–1.89)
Exposure group					<.001
MSM	5127	253 (4.9)	1.00	1.00
Heterosexual sex, males	1342	138 (10.3)	2.26 (1.83–2.78)	1.63 (1.21–2.21)
Heterosexual sex, females	1623	158 (9.7)	2.14 (1.75–2.61)	1.47 (1.07–2.00)
Other	653	75 (11.5)	2.60 (2.00–3.37)	2.48 (1.88–3.27)
Ethnicity					.04
White	5367	314 (5.9)	1.00	1.00
Black	2499	262 (10.5)	1.91 (1.62–2.25)	1.33 (1.03–1.71)
Asian	321	16 (5.0)	0.89 (.54–1.48)	0.79 (.48–1.32)
Other	559	32 (5.7)	0.97 (.68–1.40)	0.88 (.61–1.28)
Baseline HIV RNA level, copies/mL^c					<.001
5000	…	…	1.00	1.00
10 000	…	…	1.04 (1.02–1.07)	1.05 (1.02–1.07)
50 000	…	…	1.23 (1.14–1.33)	1.23 (1.14–1.34)
100 000	…	…	1.36 (1.23–1.51)	1.35 (1.21–1.51)
250 000	…	…	1.59 (1.37–1.86)	1.55 (1.32–1.83)
Baseline CD4⁺ T-cell count, cells/mm^3c					.02
100	…	…	1.00	1.00
200	…	…	0.83 (.79–.87)	0.93 (.88–.99)
300	…	…	0.74 (.69–.80)	0.90 (.82–.98)
400	…	…	0.69 (.63–.76)	0.87 (.78–.98)
500	…	…	0.65 (.58–.72)	0.85 (.75–.97)
Date of ART initiation (per calendar year)	…	…	0.97 (.94–1.01)	0.97 (.93–1.01)	.17

Predictor

Total Subjects, No.

Subjects With VF, No. (%)

HR (95% CI)

Adjusted HR^a (95% CI)

P Value

HIV subtype

5465

309 (5.7)

0.54 (.43–.67)

0.87 (.63–1.21)

.41^b

1455

142 (9.8)

1.00

Non-B/C

1826

173 (9.5)

1.00 (.77–1.31)

1.06 (.81–1.40)

.65^b

First-line regimen

<.001

TDF + 3TC/FTC + EFV

5978

345 (5.8)

1.00

TDF + 3TC/FTC + NVP

526

46 (8.8)

1.43 (1.05–1.94)

1.38 (1.01–1.89)

TDF + 3TC/FTC + ATV/r

869

97 (11.2)

2.07 (1.65–2.59)

2.07 (1.64–2.59)

TDF + 3TC/FTC + DRV/r

585

50 (8.6)

2.13 (1.58–2.87)

2.05 (1.50–2.80)

TDF + 3TC/FTC + LPV/r

788

86 (10.9)

1.73 (1.37–2.20)

1.48 (1.16–1.89)

Exposure group

<.001

MSM

5127

253 (4.9)

1.00

Heterosexual sex, males

1342

138 (10.3)

2.26 (1.83–2.78)

1.63 (1.21–2.21)

Heterosexual sex, females

1623

158 (9.7)

2.14 (1.75–2.61)

1.47 (1.07–2.00)

Other

653

75 (11.5)

2.60 (2.00–3.37)

2.48 (1.88–3.27)

Ethnicity

.04

White

5367

314 (5.9)

1.00

Black

2499

262 (10.5)

1.91 (1.62–2.25)

1.33 (1.03–1.71)

Asian

321

16 (5.0)

0.89 (.54–1.48)

0.79 (.48–1.32)

Other

559

32 (5.7)

0.97 (.68–1.40)

0.88 (.61–1.28)

Baseline HIV RNA level, copies/mL^c

<.001

5000

…

1.00

10 000

…

1.04 (1.02–1.07)

1.05 (1.02–1.07)

50 000

…

1.23 (1.14–1.33)

1.23 (1.14–1.34)

100 000

…

1.36 (1.23–1.51)

1.35 (1.21–1.51)

250 000

…

1.59 (1.37–1.86)

1.55 (1.32–1.83)

Baseline CD4⁺ T-cell count, cells/mm^3c

.02

100

…

1.00

200

…

0.83 (.79–.87)

0.93 (.88–.99)

300

…

0.74 (.69–.80)

0.90 (.82–.98)

400

…

0.69 (.63–.76)

0.87 (.78–.98)

500

…

0.65 (.58–.72)

0.85 (.75–.97)

Date of ART initiation (per calendar year)

…

0.97 (.94–1.01)

0.97 (.93–1.01)

.17

Predictor	Total Subjects, No.	Subjects With VF, No. (%)	HR (95% CI)	Adjusted HR^a (95% CI)	P Value
HIV subtype
B	5465	309 (5.7)	0.54 (.43–.67)	0.87 (.63–1.21)	.41^b
C	1455	142 (9.8)	1.00	1.00
Non-B/C	1826	173 (9.5)	1.00 (.77–1.31)	1.06 (.81–1.40)	.65^b
First-line regimen					<.001
TDF + 3TC/FTC + EFV	5978	345 (5.8)	1.00	1.00
TDF + 3TC/FTC + NVP	526	46 (8.8)	1.43 (1.05–1.94)	1.38 (1.01–1.89)
TDF + 3TC/FTC + ATV/r	869	97 (11.2)	2.07 (1.65–2.59)	2.07 (1.64–2.59)
TDF + 3TC/FTC + DRV/r	585	50 (8.6)	2.13 (1.58–2.87)	2.05 (1.50–2.80)
TDF + 3TC/FTC + LPV/r	788	86 (10.9)	1.73 (1.37–2.20)	1.48 (1.16–1.89)
Exposure group					<.001
MSM	5127	253 (4.9)	1.00	1.00
Heterosexual sex, males	1342	138 (10.3)	2.26 (1.83–2.78)	1.63 (1.21–2.21)
Heterosexual sex, females	1623	158 (9.7)	2.14 (1.75–2.61)	1.47 (1.07–2.00)
Other	653	75 (11.5)	2.60 (2.00–3.37)	2.48 (1.88–3.27)
Ethnicity					.04
White	5367	314 (5.9)	1.00	1.00
Black	2499	262 (10.5)	1.91 (1.62–2.25)	1.33 (1.03–1.71)
Asian	321	16 (5.0)	0.89 (.54–1.48)	0.79 (.48–1.32)
Other	559	32 (5.7)	0.97 (.68–1.40)	0.88 (.61–1.28)
Baseline HIV RNA level, copies/mL^c					<.001
5000	…	…	1.00	1.00
10 000	…	…	1.04 (1.02–1.07)	1.05 (1.02–1.07)
50 000	…	…	1.23 (1.14–1.33)	1.23 (1.14–1.34)
100 000	…	…	1.36 (1.23–1.51)	1.35 (1.21–1.51)
250 000	…	…	1.59 (1.37–1.86)	1.55 (1.32–1.83)
Baseline CD4⁺ T-cell count, cells/mm^3c					.02
100	…	…	1.00	1.00
200	…	…	0.83 (.79–.87)	0.93 (.88–.99)
300	…	…	0.74 (.69–.80)	0.90 (.82–.98)
400	…	…	0.69 (.63–.76)	0.87 (.78–.98)
500	…	…	0.65 (.58–.72)	0.85 (.75–.97)
Date of ART initiation (per calendar year)	…	…	0.97 (.94–1.01)	0.97 (.93–1.01)	.17

Table 2.

Open in new tab

Predictors of Virological Failure (VF)

Predictor	Total Subjects, No.	Subjects With VF, No. (%)	HR (95% CI)	Adjusted HR^a (95% CI)	P Value
HIV subtype
B	5465	309 (5.7)	0.54 (.43–.67)	0.87 (.63–1.21)	.41^b
C	1455	142 (9.8)	1.00	1.00
Non-B/C	1826	173 (9.5)	1.00 (.77–1.31)	1.06 (.81–1.40)	.65^b
First-line regimen					<.001
TDF + 3TC/FTC + EFV	5978	345 (5.8)	1.00	1.00
TDF + 3TC/FTC + NVP	526	46 (8.8)	1.43 (1.05–1.94)	1.38 (1.01–1.89)
TDF + 3TC/FTC + ATV/r	869	97 (11.2)	2.07 (1.65–2.59)	2.07 (1.64–2.59)
TDF + 3TC/FTC + DRV/r	585	50 (8.6)	2.13 (1.58–2.87)	2.05 (1.50–2.80)
TDF + 3TC/FTC + LPV/r	788	86 (10.9)	1.73 (1.37–2.20)	1.48 (1.16–1.89)
Exposure group					<.001
MSM	5127	253 (4.9)	1.00	1.00
Heterosexual sex, males	1342	138 (10.3)	2.26 (1.83–2.78)	1.63 (1.21–2.21)
Heterosexual sex, females	1623	158 (9.7)	2.14 (1.75–2.61)	1.47 (1.07–2.00)
Other	653	75 (11.5)	2.60 (2.00–3.37)	2.48 (1.88–3.27)
Ethnicity					.04
White	5367	314 (5.9)	1.00	1.00
Black	2499	262 (10.5)	1.91 (1.62–2.25)	1.33 (1.03–1.71)
Asian	321	16 (5.0)	0.89 (.54–1.48)	0.79 (.48–1.32)
Other	559	32 (5.7)	0.97 (.68–1.40)	0.88 (.61–1.28)
Baseline HIV RNA level, copies/mL^c					<.001
5000	…	…	1.00	1.00
10 000	…	…	1.04 (1.02–1.07)	1.05 (1.02–1.07)
50 000	…	…	1.23 (1.14–1.33)	1.23 (1.14–1.34)
100 000	…	…	1.36 (1.23–1.51)	1.35 (1.21–1.51)
250 000	…	…	1.59 (1.37–1.86)	1.55 (1.32–1.83)
Baseline CD4⁺ T-cell count, cells/mm^3c					.02
100	…	…	1.00	1.00
200	…	…	0.83 (.79–.87)	0.93 (.88–.99)
300	…	…	0.74 (.69–.80)	0.90 (.82–.98)
400	…	…	0.69 (.63–.76)	0.87 (.78–.98)
500	…	…	0.65 (.58–.72)	0.85 (.75–.97)
Date of ART initiation (per calendar year)	…	…	0.97 (.94–1.01)	0.97 (.93–1.01)	.17

Predictor	Total Subjects, No.	Subjects With VF, No. (%)	HR (95% CI)	Adjusted HR^a (95% CI)	P Value
HIV subtype
B	5465	309 (5.7)	0.54 (.43–.67)	0.87 (.63–1.21)	.41^b
C	1455	142 (9.8)	1.00	1.00
Non-B/C	1826	173 (9.5)	1.00 (.77–1.31)	1.06 (.81–1.40)	.65^b
First-line regimen					<.001
TDF + 3TC/FTC + EFV	5978	345 (5.8)	1.00	1.00
TDF + 3TC/FTC + NVP	526	46 (8.8)	1.43 (1.05–1.94)	1.38 (1.01–1.89)
TDF + 3TC/FTC + ATV/r	869	97 (11.2)	2.07 (1.65–2.59)	2.07 (1.64–2.59)
TDF + 3TC/FTC + DRV/r	585	50 (8.6)	2.13 (1.58–2.87)	2.05 (1.50–2.80)
TDF + 3TC/FTC + LPV/r	788	86 (10.9)	1.73 (1.37–2.20)	1.48 (1.16–1.89)
Exposure group					<.001
MSM	5127	253 (4.9)	1.00	1.00
Heterosexual sex, males	1342	138 (10.3)	2.26 (1.83–2.78)	1.63 (1.21–2.21)
Heterosexual sex, females	1623	158 (9.7)	2.14 (1.75–2.61)	1.47 (1.07–2.00)
Other	653	75 (11.5)	2.60 (2.00–3.37)	2.48 (1.88–3.27)
Ethnicity					.04
White	5367	314 (5.9)	1.00	1.00
Black	2499	262 (10.5)	1.91 (1.62–2.25)	1.33 (1.03–1.71)
Asian	321	16 (5.0)	0.89 (.54–1.48)	0.79 (.48–1.32)
Other	559	32 (5.7)	0.97 (.68–1.40)	0.88 (.61–1.28)
Baseline HIV RNA level, copies/mL^c					<.001
5000	…	…	1.00	1.00
10 000	…	…	1.04 (1.02–1.07)	1.05 (1.02–1.07)
50 000	…	…	1.23 (1.14–1.33)	1.23 (1.14–1.34)
100 000	…	…	1.36 (1.23–1.51)	1.35 (1.21–1.51)
250 000	…	…	1.59 (1.37–1.86)	1.55 (1.32–1.83)
Baseline CD4⁺ T-cell count, cells/mm^3c					.02
100	…	…	1.00	1.00
200	…	…	0.83 (.79–.87)	0.93 (.88–.99)
300	…	…	0.74 (.69–.80)	0.90 (.82–.98)
400	…	…	0.69 (.63–.76)	0.87 (.78–.98)
500	…	…	0.65 (.58–.72)	0.85 (.75–.97)
Date of ART initiation (per calendar year)	…	…	0.97 (.94–1.01)	0.97 (.93–1.01)	.17

Data are averages over imputed data sets.

Abbreviations: 3TC, lamivudine; ART, antiretroviral therapy; ATV/r, atazanavir/ritonavir; CI, confidence interval; DRV/r, darunavir/ritonavir; EFV, efavirenz; FTC, emtricitabine; HIV, human immunodeficiency virus; HR, hazard ratio; LPV/r, lopinavir/ritonavir; MSM, men who have sex with men; NVP, nevirapine; TDF, tenofovir disoproxil fumarate.

^a Adjusted for all variables in table.

^b By individual Wald tests.

^c HRs are presented at selected values as fitted as nonlinear, continuous relationship. Data are also shown in Supplementary Figure 1.

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