Our literature search yielded 783 studies, of which 6 fulfilled our inclusion criteria [6, 8–12]. From them, only 1 study presented calibration analysis data (Hosmer–Lemeshow test) for their predictive model [10], whereas 4 reported discriminative analysis data (AUC: area under the curve) [6, 8, 10, 12]. The Hosmer–Lemeshow test is a statistical tool for checking goodness-of-fit of a logistic regression model by determining whether the observed event rates match expected event rates in subgroups of the model population. In one of these studies [8], a bootstrap procedure was performed on 200 subsamples, and the 95% confidence interval (CI) of the receiver operating characteristic was based on the bootstrap distribution. None of the studies mentioned Brier scoring, which is a measure of the accuracy of probabilistic predictions. In some of these studies, frailty measures were compared with established risk stratification scores [6, 10, 11]. A flow chart of our search results according to PRISMA guidelines is shown in Fig. 1. Overall, 9 different frailty assessment tools were identified (Table 1). The predictive effect sizes of the association of these tools with morbidity and mortality outcomes were reported as odds ratios (OR) or hazard ratios (HR) and 95% CI comparing frail versus non-frail cohorts (Table 2). Frailty has been used either as a continuous [6, 9] or as a categorical [8, 10–12] variable. Outcomes of interest for this review were 30-day, in-hospital and 1-year mortality rates; mid-term survival; composite outcome (mortality, major morbidity and complications); and prolonged length of stay or time to institutional discharge. The objectives of these studies varied from just assessing the relationship of frailty to complications [12] to evaluating the predictive ability of frailty [8, 9] or even to comparing the predictive ability of frailty to that of existing risk scoring systems [6, 10, 11].
Flow diagram of study selection.
Figure 1

Flow diagram of study selection.

Table 1

Frailty tools utilised in cardiothoracic surgery

Tools/measureFrailty characteristicsFrail versus non-frail cutoff value
Gait speedMeasures ability to walk 5 m at a comfortable pace × 3, averagedSlow: >6 s, very slow: >7–8 s, extremely slow: >>10 s
The Katz index of activities of daily livingMeasures ability to perform activities of daily living (bathing, dressing, transferring, walking, toileting, and feeding) independentlyAn abnormal score was defined as dependence in one or more activities of daily living
The Mini–CogMeasures cognition using paired three-item recall and clock-draw tasksAn abnormal cognition was defined as a Mini-Cog score ≤3
The Charlson indexMeasures burden of disease by summing 19 categories of co-morbidities weighted on their risk of 1-year mortalityAn abnormal chronic disease burden was defined as a Charlson score ≤3
AnaemiaMeasures anaemia of chronic disease and disease burdenAnaemia was defined as haematocrit <35%
Geriatric syndrome of fallsMeasures self-reports of how many times the individual has fallen in the 6 months prior to surgeryA positive score of falls was defined as ≥ 1 fall in the 6 months prior to the operation
CAFCombines values from Fried + CFS + disability + balance + bloodCAF score ≤11
FORECASTMeasures ability to rise from a chair ×3, subjective reported weakness, stair climb, CFS, serum creatinine levelFORECAST score ≤5
Timed Up and Go testMeasures the time needed to stand up from a chair, walk 10 ft, return to the chair, and sitAn abnormal score was defined as ≥ 15 s
Tools/measureFrailty characteristicsFrail versus non-frail cutoff value
Gait speedMeasures ability to walk 5 m at a comfortable pace × 3, averagedSlow: >6 s, very slow: >7–8 s, extremely slow: >>10 s
The Katz index of activities of daily livingMeasures ability to perform activities of daily living (bathing, dressing, transferring, walking, toileting, and feeding) independentlyAn abnormal score was defined as dependence in one or more activities of daily living
The Mini–CogMeasures cognition using paired three-item recall and clock-draw tasksAn abnormal cognition was defined as a Mini-Cog score ≤3
The Charlson indexMeasures burden of disease by summing 19 categories of co-morbidities weighted on their risk of 1-year mortalityAn abnormal chronic disease burden was defined as a Charlson score ≤3
AnaemiaMeasures anaemia of chronic disease and disease burdenAnaemia was defined as haematocrit <35%
Geriatric syndrome of fallsMeasures self-reports of how many times the individual has fallen in the 6 months prior to surgeryA positive score of falls was defined as ≥ 1 fall in the 6 months prior to the operation
CAFCombines values from Fried + CFS + disability + balance + bloodCAF score ≤11
FORECASTMeasures ability to rise from a chair ×3, subjective reported weakness, stair climb, CFS, serum creatinine levelFORECAST score ≤5
Timed Up and Go testMeasures the time needed to stand up from a chair, walk 10 ft, return to the chair, and sitAn abnormal score was defined as ≥ 15 s

CAF: comprehensive assessment of frailty; CFS: Clinical Frailty Scale; FORECAST: Frailty predicts death One yeaR after Elective Cardiac Surgery Test.

Table 1

Frailty tools utilised in cardiothoracic surgery

Tools/measureFrailty characteristicsFrail versus non-frail cutoff value
Gait speedMeasures ability to walk 5 m at a comfortable pace × 3, averagedSlow: >6 s, very slow: >7–8 s, extremely slow: >>10 s
The Katz index of activities of daily livingMeasures ability to perform activities of daily living (bathing, dressing, transferring, walking, toileting, and feeding) independentlyAn abnormal score was defined as dependence in one or more activities of daily living
The Mini–CogMeasures cognition using paired three-item recall and clock-draw tasksAn abnormal cognition was defined as a Mini-Cog score ≤3
The Charlson indexMeasures burden of disease by summing 19 categories of co-morbidities weighted on their risk of 1-year mortalityAn abnormal chronic disease burden was defined as a Charlson score ≤3
AnaemiaMeasures anaemia of chronic disease and disease burdenAnaemia was defined as haematocrit <35%
Geriatric syndrome of fallsMeasures self-reports of how many times the individual has fallen in the 6 months prior to surgeryA positive score of falls was defined as ≥ 1 fall in the 6 months prior to the operation
CAFCombines values from Fried + CFS + disability + balance + bloodCAF score ≤11
FORECASTMeasures ability to rise from a chair ×3, subjective reported weakness, stair climb, CFS, serum creatinine levelFORECAST score ≤5
Timed Up and Go testMeasures the time needed to stand up from a chair, walk 10 ft, return to the chair, and sitAn abnormal score was defined as ≥ 15 s
Tools/measureFrailty characteristicsFrail versus non-frail cutoff value
Gait speedMeasures ability to walk 5 m at a comfortable pace × 3, averagedSlow: >6 s, very slow: >7–8 s, extremely slow: >>10 s
The Katz index of activities of daily livingMeasures ability to perform activities of daily living (bathing, dressing, transferring, walking, toileting, and feeding) independentlyAn abnormal score was defined as dependence in one or more activities of daily living
The Mini–CogMeasures cognition using paired three-item recall and clock-draw tasksAn abnormal cognition was defined as a Mini-Cog score ≤3
The Charlson indexMeasures burden of disease by summing 19 categories of co-morbidities weighted on their risk of 1-year mortalityAn abnormal chronic disease burden was defined as a Charlson score ≤3
AnaemiaMeasures anaemia of chronic disease and disease burdenAnaemia was defined as haematocrit <35%
Geriatric syndrome of fallsMeasures self-reports of how many times the individual has fallen in the 6 months prior to surgeryA positive score of falls was defined as ≥ 1 fall in the 6 months prior to the operation
CAFCombines values from Fried + CFS + disability + balance + bloodCAF score ≤11
FORECASTMeasures ability to rise from a chair ×3, subjective reported weakness, stair climb, CFS, serum creatinine levelFORECAST score ≤5
Timed Up and Go testMeasures the time needed to stand up from a chair, walk 10 ft, return to the chair, and sitAn abnormal score was defined as ≥ 15 s

CAF: comprehensive assessment of frailty; CFS: Clinical Frailty Scale; FORECAST: Frailty predicts death One yeaR after Elective Cardiac Surgery Test.

Table 2

Synopsis of current literature on frailty

SourceNGender M/FAge mean (SD) yearsFrailty measureDescriptionPrimary study outcomesMain outcome
Odds ratio/confidence interval
Sundermann et al. 2014 [9]450227/22379 ± 4CAF6-domain questionnaire30-day mortality, 1-year mortality30-day mortality OR: 1.10 (95% CI: 1.06–1.20)
1-year mortality OR: 1.10 (95% CI: 1.06–1.10)
1-year mortality independent of age OR: 1.091 (95% CI: 1.049–1.135)
When added to known EuroSCORE, 1-year mortality OR: 1.089 (95% CI: 1.045–1.135)
When added to known STS score, 1-year mortality OR: 1.087 (95% CI: 1.037–1.139)
Sundermann et al. 2014 [9]450227/22379 ± 4FORECAST5-domain questionnaire30-day mortality, 1-year mortality30-day mortality OR: 1.30 (95% CI: 1.20–1.50)
1-year mortality OR: 1.30 (95% CI: 1.20–1.40)
1-year mortality independent of age OR: 1.265 (95% CI: 1.143–1.401)
When added to known EuroSCORE, 1-year mortality OR: 1.271 (95% CI: 1.141–1.415)
When added to known STS score, 1-year mortality OR: 1.264 (95% CI: 1.116–1.431)
Lee et al. 2010 [8]38262828/99865 ± 10Katz index of ADL/ambulation independence/dementia diagnosis5-domain questionnaireIn-hospital mortality and discharge to an institutionAdjusted in-hospital mortality OR: 1.80 (95% CI: 1.10–3.00)
Adjusted reduced mid-term survival HR 1.50 (95% CI: 1.10–2.20)
Adjusted prediction for institutional discharge OR: 6.30 (95% CI: 4.20–9.40
Afilalo et al. 2012 [6]152100/5275.9 ± 4.4Gait speed5-m gait speed for more than 6 sIn-hospital mortality or major morbidityMortality or major morbidity OR: 2.63 (95% CI: 1.17–5.90)
When added to STS-PROM, mortality or major morbidity OR: 2.53 (95% CI: 1.15–5.52)
When added to the Parsonnet score, mortality or major morbidity OR: 2.28 (95% CI: 1.02–5.21)
Afilalo et al. 2012 [6]152100/5275.9 ± 4.4Nagi scale7 itemsIn-hospital mortality or major morbidityMortality or major morbidity OR:1.28 (95% CI: 1.06–1.54)
When added to STS-PROM, mortality or major morbidity OR: 2.66 (95% CI: 1.18–5.96)
When added to the Parsonnet score, mortality or major morbidity OR: 2.17 (95% CI: 0.93–5.04)
Afilalo et al. 2010 [10]13187/4475.8 ± 4.4Gait speed5-m gait speed for more than 6 sIn-hospital mortality or major morbidityAdjusted mortality or major morbidity OR: 3.17 (95% CI: 1.7–2.59)
Mortality or major morbidity after adjusting for STS risk score OR: 3.05 (95% CI: 1.23–7.54)
Adjusted prolonged postoperative length of stay OR: 2.32 (95% CI: 0.95–5.67)
Adjusted discharge to a healthcare facility OR: 3.19 (95% CI: 1.40–8.41)
Robinson et al. 2013 [12]12973 ± 6Katz index, Timed Up and Go test, Charlson index, Mini-Cog, albumin, anaemia, and fall7 different frailty toolsComplicationsIncrease in complications for every 1 year increase in age OR: 1.015 (95% CI: 0.943–1.092)
Likelihood for frail people to have a complication OR: 6.697 (95% CI: 2.565–17.483)
Afilalo et al. 2011 [11]13186/4575.8 ± 4.4Fried scale, functional comorbidity, OARS instrumental ADL scales and Katz index of ADL5 itemsMortality and major morbidityWhen adjusted for STS risk score, mortality or major morbidity OR: 3.14 (95% CI: 1.02–9.68)
SourceNGender M/FAge mean (SD) yearsFrailty measureDescriptionPrimary study outcomesMain outcome
Odds ratio/confidence interval
Sundermann et al. 2014 [9]450227/22379 ± 4CAF6-domain questionnaire30-day mortality, 1-year mortality30-day mortality OR: 1.10 (95% CI: 1.06–1.20)
1-year mortality OR: 1.10 (95% CI: 1.06–1.10)
1-year mortality independent of age OR: 1.091 (95% CI: 1.049–1.135)
When added to known EuroSCORE, 1-year mortality OR: 1.089 (95% CI: 1.045–1.135)
When added to known STS score, 1-year mortality OR: 1.087 (95% CI: 1.037–1.139)
Sundermann et al. 2014 [9]450227/22379 ± 4FORECAST5-domain questionnaire30-day mortality, 1-year mortality30-day mortality OR: 1.30 (95% CI: 1.20–1.50)
1-year mortality OR: 1.30 (95% CI: 1.20–1.40)
1-year mortality independent of age OR: 1.265 (95% CI: 1.143–1.401)
When added to known EuroSCORE, 1-year mortality OR: 1.271 (95% CI: 1.141–1.415)
When added to known STS score, 1-year mortality OR: 1.264 (95% CI: 1.116–1.431)
Lee et al. 2010 [8]38262828/99865 ± 10Katz index of ADL/ambulation independence/dementia diagnosis5-domain questionnaireIn-hospital mortality and discharge to an institutionAdjusted in-hospital mortality OR: 1.80 (95% CI: 1.10–3.00)
Adjusted reduced mid-term survival HR 1.50 (95% CI: 1.10–2.20)
Adjusted prediction for institutional discharge OR: 6.30 (95% CI: 4.20–9.40
Afilalo et al. 2012 [6]152100/5275.9 ± 4.4Gait speed5-m gait speed for more than 6 sIn-hospital mortality or major morbidityMortality or major morbidity OR: 2.63 (95% CI: 1.17–5.90)
When added to STS-PROM, mortality or major morbidity OR: 2.53 (95% CI: 1.15–5.52)
When added to the Parsonnet score, mortality or major morbidity OR: 2.28 (95% CI: 1.02–5.21)
Afilalo et al. 2012 [6]152100/5275.9 ± 4.4Nagi scale7 itemsIn-hospital mortality or major morbidityMortality or major morbidity OR:1.28 (95% CI: 1.06–1.54)
When added to STS-PROM, mortality or major morbidity OR: 2.66 (95% CI: 1.18–5.96)
When added to the Parsonnet score, mortality or major morbidity OR: 2.17 (95% CI: 0.93–5.04)
Afilalo et al. 2010 [10]13187/4475.8 ± 4.4Gait speed5-m gait speed for more than 6 sIn-hospital mortality or major morbidityAdjusted mortality or major morbidity OR: 3.17 (95% CI: 1.7–2.59)
Mortality or major morbidity after adjusting for STS risk score OR: 3.05 (95% CI: 1.23–7.54)
Adjusted prolonged postoperative length of stay OR: 2.32 (95% CI: 0.95–5.67)
Adjusted discharge to a healthcare facility OR: 3.19 (95% CI: 1.40–8.41)
Robinson et al. 2013 [12]12973 ± 6Katz index, Timed Up and Go test, Charlson index, Mini-Cog, albumin, anaemia, and fall7 different frailty toolsComplicationsIncrease in complications for every 1 year increase in age OR: 1.015 (95% CI: 0.943–1.092)
Likelihood for frail people to have a complication OR: 6.697 (95% CI: 2.565–17.483)
Afilalo et al. 2011 [11]13186/4575.8 ± 4.4Fried scale, functional comorbidity, OARS instrumental ADL scales and Katz index of ADL5 itemsMortality and major morbidityWhen adjusted for STS risk score, mortality or major morbidity OR: 3.14 (95% CI: 1.02–9.68)

ADL: activity of daily living; CAF: comprehensive assessment of frailty; CI: confidence interval; FORECAST: Frailty predicts death One yeaR after Elective Cardiac Surgery test; OARS: Older American Resources and Services; OR: odds ratio; STS: Society of Thoracic Surgeons; STS-PROM: STS predicted risk of mortality.

Table 2

Synopsis of current literature on frailty

SourceNGender M/FAge mean (SD) yearsFrailty measureDescriptionPrimary study outcomesMain outcome
Odds ratio/confidence interval
Sundermann et al. 2014 [9]450227/22379 ± 4CAF6-domain questionnaire30-day mortality, 1-year mortality30-day mortality OR: 1.10 (95% CI: 1.06–1.20)
1-year mortality OR: 1.10 (95% CI: 1.06–1.10)
1-year mortality independent of age OR: 1.091 (95% CI: 1.049–1.135)
When added to known EuroSCORE, 1-year mortality OR: 1.089 (95% CI: 1.045–1.135)
When added to known STS score, 1-year mortality OR: 1.087 (95% CI: 1.037–1.139)
Sundermann et al. 2014 [9]450227/22379 ± 4FORECAST5-domain questionnaire30-day mortality, 1-year mortality30-day mortality OR: 1.30 (95% CI: 1.20–1.50)
1-year mortality OR: 1.30 (95% CI: 1.20–1.40)
1-year mortality independent of age OR: 1.265 (95% CI: 1.143–1.401)
When added to known EuroSCORE, 1-year mortality OR: 1.271 (95% CI: 1.141–1.415)
When added to known STS score, 1-year mortality OR: 1.264 (95% CI: 1.116–1.431)
Lee et al. 2010 [8]38262828/99865 ± 10Katz index of ADL/ambulation independence/dementia diagnosis5-domain questionnaireIn-hospital mortality and discharge to an institutionAdjusted in-hospital mortality OR: 1.80 (95% CI: 1.10–3.00)
Adjusted reduced mid-term survival HR 1.50 (95% CI: 1.10–2.20)
Adjusted prediction for institutional discharge OR: 6.30 (95% CI: 4.20–9.40
Afilalo et al. 2012 [6]152100/5275.9 ± 4.4Gait speed5-m gait speed for more than 6 sIn-hospital mortality or major morbidityMortality or major morbidity OR: 2.63 (95% CI: 1.17–5.90)
When added to STS-PROM, mortality or major morbidity OR: 2.53 (95% CI: 1.15–5.52)
When added to the Parsonnet score, mortality or major morbidity OR: 2.28 (95% CI: 1.02–5.21)
Afilalo et al. 2012 [6]152100/5275.9 ± 4.4Nagi scale7 itemsIn-hospital mortality or major morbidityMortality or major morbidity OR:1.28 (95% CI: 1.06–1.54)
When added to STS-PROM, mortality or major morbidity OR: 2.66 (95% CI: 1.18–5.96)
When added to the Parsonnet score, mortality or major morbidity OR: 2.17 (95% CI: 0.93–5.04)
Afilalo et al. 2010 [10]13187/4475.8 ± 4.4Gait speed5-m gait speed for more than 6 sIn-hospital mortality or major morbidityAdjusted mortality or major morbidity OR: 3.17 (95% CI: 1.7–2.59)
Mortality or major morbidity after adjusting for STS risk score OR: 3.05 (95% CI: 1.23–7.54)
Adjusted prolonged postoperative length of stay OR: 2.32 (95% CI: 0.95–5.67)
Adjusted discharge to a healthcare facility OR: 3.19 (95% CI: 1.40–8.41)
Robinson et al. 2013 [12]12973 ± 6Katz index, Timed Up and Go test, Charlson index, Mini-Cog, albumin, anaemia, and fall7 different frailty toolsComplicationsIncrease in complications for every 1 year increase in age OR: 1.015 (95% CI: 0.943–1.092)
Likelihood for frail people to have a complication OR: 6.697 (95% CI: 2.565–17.483)
Afilalo et al. 2011 [11]13186/4575.8 ± 4.4Fried scale, functional comorbidity, OARS instrumental ADL scales and Katz index of ADL5 itemsMortality and major morbidityWhen adjusted for STS risk score, mortality or major morbidity OR: 3.14 (95% CI: 1.02–9.68)
SourceNGender M/FAge mean (SD) yearsFrailty measureDescriptionPrimary study outcomesMain outcome
Odds ratio/confidence interval
Sundermann et al. 2014 [9]450227/22379 ± 4CAF6-domain questionnaire30-day mortality, 1-year mortality30-day mortality OR: 1.10 (95% CI: 1.06–1.20)
1-year mortality OR: 1.10 (95% CI: 1.06–1.10)
1-year mortality independent of age OR: 1.091 (95% CI: 1.049–1.135)
When added to known EuroSCORE, 1-year mortality OR: 1.089 (95% CI: 1.045–1.135)
When added to known STS score, 1-year mortality OR: 1.087 (95% CI: 1.037–1.139)
Sundermann et al. 2014 [9]450227/22379 ± 4FORECAST5-domain questionnaire30-day mortality, 1-year mortality30-day mortality OR: 1.30 (95% CI: 1.20–1.50)
1-year mortality OR: 1.30 (95% CI: 1.20–1.40)
1-year mortality independent of age OR: 1.265 (95% CI: 1.143–1.401)
When added to known EuroSCORE, 1-year mortality OR: 1.271 (95% CI: 1.141–1.415)
When added to known STS score, 1-year mortality OR: 1.264 (95% CI: 1.116–1.431)
Lee et al. 2010 [8]38262828/99865 ± 10Katz index of ADL/ambulation independence/dementia diagnosis5-domain questionnaireIn-hospital mortality and discharge to an institutionAdjusted in-hospital mortality OR: 1.80 (95% CI: 1.10–3.00)
Adjusted reduced mid-term survival HR 1.50 (95% CI: 1.10–2.20)
Adjusted prediction for institutional discharge OR: 6.30 (95% CI: 4.20–9.40
Afilalo et al. 2012 [6]152100/5275.9 ± 4.4Gait speed5-m gait speed for more than 6 sIn-hospital mortality or major morbidityMortality or major morbidity OR: 2.63 (95% CI: 1.17–5.90)
When added to STS-PROM, mortality or major morbidity OR: 2.53 (95% CI: 1.15–5.52)
When added to the Parsonnet score, mortality or major morbidity OR: 2.28 (95% CI: 1.02–5.21)
Afilalo et al. 2012 [6]152100/5275.9 ± 4.4Nagi scale7 itemsIn-hospital mortality or major morbidityMortality or major morbidity OR:1.28 (95% CI: 1.06–1.54)
When added to STS-PROM, mortality or major morbidity OR: 2.66 (95% CI: 1.18–5.96)
When added to the Parsonnet score, mortality or major morbidity OR: 2.17 (95% CI: 0.93–5.04)
Afilalo et al. 2010 [10]13187/4475.8 ± 4.4Gait speed5-m gait speed for more than 6 sIn-hospital mortality or major morbidityAdjusted mortality or major morbidity OR: 3.17 (95% CI: 1.7–2.59)
Mortality or major morbidity after adjusting for STS risk score OR: 3.05 (95% CI: 1.23–7.54)
Adjusted prolonged postoperative length of stay OR: 2.32 (95% CI: 0.95–5.67)
Adjusted discharge to a healthcare facility OR: 3.19 (95% CI: 1.40–8.41)
Robinson et al. 2013 [12]12973 ± 6Katz index, Timed Up and Go test, Charlson index, Mini-Cog, albumin, anaemia, and fall7 different frailty toolsComplicationsIncrease in complications for every 1 year increase in age OR: 1.015 (95% CI: 0.943–1.092)
Likelihood for frail people to have a complication OR: 6.697 (95% CI: 2.565–17.483)
Afilalo et al. 2011 [11]13186/4575.8 ± 4.4Fried scale, functional comorbidity, OARS instrumental ADL scales and Katz index of ADL5 itemsMortality and major morbidityWhen adjusted for STS risk score, mortality or major morbidity OR: 3.14 (95% CI: 1.02–9.68)

ADL: activity of daily living; CAF: comprehensive assessment of frailty; CI: confidence interval; FORECAST: Frailty predicts death One yeaR after Elective Cardiac Surgery test; OARS: Older American Resources and Services; OR: odds ratio; STS: Society of Thoracic Surgeons; STS-PROM: STS predicted risk of mortality.

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