Comparison of concordance index (confidence interval) in the mid-to-long term composite outcome prediction model of SPARK score versus SPARK variables.
| . | . | . | . | . | Validation cohort . | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| . | Model . | Population . | Development cohort . | Temporal . | External: SNUBH P1 . | External: SNUBH P2 . | External : SMG-BMC . |
| 1-Year composite outcome | SPARK score | Total | 0.809 (0.754‒0.854) | 0.797 (0.741‒0.844) | 0.839 (0.725‒0.912) | 0.833 (0.768‒0.883) | 0.817 (0.728‒0.882) |
| SPARK class ≥B | 0.680 (0.657‒0.703) | 0.726 (0.701‒0.750) | 0.728 (0.671‒0.778) | 0.739 (0.707‒0.769) | 0.767 (0.720‒0.808) | ||
| PO-AKI | 0.594 (0.539‒0.647) | 0.679 (0.612‒0.740) | 0.713 (0.573‒0.821) | 0.683 (0.600‒0.757) | 0.707 (0.593‒0.800) | ||
| SPARK variables | Total | 0.829 (0.777‒0.871) | 0.820 (0.765‒0.864) | 0.841 (0.727‒0.913) | 0.844 (0.780‒0.892) | 0.826 (0.739‒0.889) | |
| SPARK class ≥B | 0.716 (0.693‒0.737) | 0.750 (0.726‒0.772) | 0.730 (0.674‒0.780) | 0.757 (0.726‒0.786) | 0.771 (0.725‒0.811) | ||
| PO-AKI | 0.649 (0.595‒0.700) | 0.708 (0.642‒0.765) | 0.749 (0.612‒0.849) | 0.731 (0.650‒0.799) | 0.749 (0.612‒0.849) | ||
| SPARK coefficient | Total | 0.806 (0.751‒0.851) | 0.806 (0.751‒0.852) | 0.848 (0.736‒0.918) | 0.848 (0.784‒0.895) | 0.840 (0.754‒0.899) | |
| SPARK class ≥B | 0.681 (0.658‒0.702) | 0.718 (0.693‒0.741) | 0.741 (0.685‒0.789) | 0.742 (0.711‒0.772) | 0.773 (0.727‒0.813) | ||
| PO-AKI | 0.618 (0.564‒0.670) | 0.668 (0.601‒0.728) | 0.699 (0.560‒0.810) | 0.711 (0.629‒0.781) | 0.722 (0.609‒0.812) | ||
| 3-Year composite outcome | SPARK score | Total | 0.777 (0.739‒0.810) | 0.779 (0.734‒0.818) | 0.772 (0.697‒0.834) | 0.783 (0.734‒0.824) | 0.805 (0.741‒0.857) |
| SPARK class ≥B | 0.645 (0.630‒0.661) | 0.691 (0.672‒0.709) | 0.700 (0.663‒0.735) | 0.707 (0.683‒0.729) | 0.746 (0.711‒0.779) | ||
| PO-AKI | 0.581 (0.539‒0.621) | 0.668 (0.612‒0.719) | 0.713 (0.573‒0.821) | 0.683 (0.600‒0.757) | 0.707 (0.593‒0.800) | ||
| SPARK variables | Total | 0.782 (0.745‒0.815) | 0.790 (0.746‒0.828) | 0.777 (0.702‒0.837) | 0.795 (0.747‒0.835) | 0.815 (0.752‒0.865) | |
| SPARK class ≥B | 0.675 (0.659‒0.690) | 0.711 (0.692‒0.729) | 0.703 (0.666‒0.738) | 0.725 (0.702‒0.747) | 0.750 (0.715‒0.782) | ||
| PO-AKI | 0.615 (0.574‒0.655) | 0.687 (0.633‒0.737) | 0.747 (0.611‒0.848) | 0.726 (0.645‒0.795) | 0.741 (0.629‒0.828) | ||
| SPARK coefficient | Total | 0.783 (0.746‒0.816) | 0.799 (0.757‒0.836) | 0.788 (0.715‒0.847) | 0.805 (0.759‒0.845) | 0.832 (0.771‒0.879) | |
| SPARK class ≥B | 0.658 (0.643‒0.673) | 0.690 (0.671‒0.708) | 0.716 (0.680‒0.750) | 0.719 (0.696‒0.740) | 0.755 (0.721‒0.787) | ||
| PO-AKI | 0.603 (0.562‒0.643) | 0.665 (0.610‒0.716) | 0.699 (0.560‒0.810) | 0.711 (0.629‒0.781) | 0.722 (0.609‒0.812) | ||
| . | . | . | . | . | Validation cohort . | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| . | Model . | Population . | Development cohort . | Temporal . | External: SNUBH P1 . | External: SNUBH P2 . | External : SMG-BMC . |
| 1-Year composite outcome | SPARK score | Total | 0.809 (0.754‒0.854) | 0.797 (0.741‒0.844) | 0.839 (0.725‒0.912) | 0.833 (0.768‒0.883) | 0.817 (0.728‒0.882) |
| SPARK class ≥B | 0.680 (0.657‒0.703) | 0.726 (0.701‒0.750) | 0.728 (0.671‒0.778) | 0.739 (0.707‒0.769) | 0.767 (0.720‒0.808) | ||
| PO-AKI | 0.594 (0.539‒0.647) | 0.679 (0.612‒0.740) | 0.713 (0.573‒0.821) | 0.683 (0.600‒0.757) | 0.707 (0.593‒0.800) | ||
| SPARK variables | Total | 0.829 (0.777‒0.871) | 0.820 (0.765‒0.864) | 0.841 (0.727‒0.913) | 0.844 (0.780‒0.892) | 0.826 (0.739‒0.889) | |
| SPARK class ≥B | 0.716 (0.693‒0.737) | 0.750 (0.726‒0.772) | 0.730 (0.674‒0.780) | 0.757 (0.726‒0.786) | 0.771 (0.725‒0.811) | ||
| PO-AKI | 0.649 (0.595‒0.700) | 0.708 (0.642‒0.765) | 0.749 (0.612‒0.849) | 0.731 (0.650‒0.799) | 0.749 (0.612‒0.849) | ||
| SPARK coefficient | Total | 0.806 (0.751‒0.851) | 0.806 (0.751‒0.852) | 0.848 (0.736‒0.918) | 0.848 (0.784‒0.895) | 0.840 (0.754‒0.899) | |
| SPARK class ≥B | 0.681 (0.658‒0.702) | 0.718 (0.693‒0.741) | 0.741 (0.685‒0.789) | 0.742 (0.711‒0.772) | 0.773 (0.727‒0.813) | ||
| PO-AKI | 0.618 (0.564‒0.670) | 0.668 (0.601‒0.728) | 0.699 (0.560‒0.810) | 0.711 (0.629‒0.781) | 0.722 (0.609‒0.812) | ||
| 3-Year composite outcome | SPARK score | Total | 0.777 (0.739‒0.810) | 0.779 (0.734‒0.818) | 0.772 (0.697‒0.834) | 0.783 (0.734‒0.824) | 0.805 (0.741‒0.857) |
| SPARK class ≥B | 0.645 (0.630‒0.661) | 0.691 (0.672‒0.709) | 0.700 (0.663‒0.735) | 0.707 (0.683‒0.729) | 0.746 (0.711‒0.779) | ||
| PO-AKI | 0.581 (0.539‒0.621) | 0.668 (0.612‒0.719) | 0.713 (0.573‒0.821) | 0.683 (0.600‒0.757) | 0.707 (0.593‒0.800) | ||
| SPARK variables | Total | 0.782 (0.745‒0.815) | 0.790 (0.746‒0.828) | 0.777 (0.702‒0.837) | 0.795 (0.747‒0.835) | 0.815 (0.752‒0.865) | |
| SPARK class ≥B | 0.675 (0.659‒0.690) | 0.711 (0.692‒0.729) | 0.703 (0.666‒0.738) | 0.725 (0.702‒0.747) | 0.750 (0.715‒0.782) | ||
| PO-AKI | 0.615 (0.574‒0.655) | 0.687 (0.633‒0.737) | 0.747 (0.611‒0.848) | 0.726 (0.645‒0.795) | 0.741 (0.629‒0.828) | ||
| SPARK coefficient | Total | 0.783 (0.746‒0.816) | 0.799 (0.757‒0.836) | 0.788 (0.715‒0.847) | 0.805 (0.759‒0.845) | 0.832 (0.771‒0.879) | |
| SPARK class ≥B | 0.658 (0.643‒0.673) | 0.690 (0.671‒0.708) | 0.716 (0.680‒0.750) | 0.719 (0.696‒0.740) | 0.755 (0.721‒0.787) | ||
| PO-AKI | 0.603 (0.562‒0.643) | 0.665 (0.610‒0.716) | 0.699 (0.560‒0.810) | 0.711 (0.629‒0.781) | 0.722 (0.609‒0.812) | ||
SNUBH P1, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital Period 1 (2005–12); SNUBH P2, Period 2 (2013–20); SMG-BMC, Seoul Metropolitan Government Boramae Medical Center.
Comparison of concordance index (confidence interval) in the mid-to-long term composite outcome prediction model of SPARK score versus SPARK variables.
| . | . | . | . | . | Validation cohort . | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| . | Model . | Population . | Development cohort . | Temporal . | External: SNUBH P1 . | External: SNUBH P2 . | External : SMG-BMC . |
| 1-Year composite outcome | SPARK score | Total | 0.809 (0.754‒0.854) | 0.797 (0.741‒0.844) | 0.839 (0.725‒0.912) | 0.833 (0.768‒0.883) | 0.817 (0.728‒0.882) |
| SPARK class ≥B | 0.680 (0.657‒0.703) | 0.726 (0.701‒0.750) | 0.728 (0.671‒0.778) | 0.739 (0.707‒0.769) | 0.767 (0.720‒0.808) | ||
| PO-AKI | 0.594 (0.539‒0.647) | 0.679 (0.612‒0.740) | 0.713 (0.573‒0.821) | 0.683 (0.600‒0.757) | 0.707 (0.593‒0.800) | ||
| SPARK variables | Total | 0.829 (0.777‒0.871) | 0.820 (0.765‒0.864) | 0.841 (0.727‒0.913) | 0.844 (0.780‒0.892) | 0.826 (0.739‒0.889) | |
| SPARK class ≥B | 0.716 (0.693‒0.737) | 0.750 (0.726‒0.772) | 0.730 (0.674‒0.780) | 0.757 (0.726‒0.786) | 0.771 (0.725‒0.811) | ||
| PO-AKI | 0.649 (0.595‒0.700) | 0.708 (0.642‒0.765) | 0.749 (0.612‒0.849) | 0.731 (0.650‒0.799) | 0.749 (0.612‒0.849) | ||
| SPARK coefficient | Total | 0.806 (0.751‒0.851) | 0.806 (0.751‒0.852) | 0.848 (0.736‒0.918) | 0.848 (0.784‒0.895) | 0.840 (0.754‒0.899) | |
| SPARK class ≥B | 0.681 (0.658‒0.702) | 0.718 (0.693‒0.741) | 0.741 (0.685‒0.789) | 0.742 (0.711‒0.772) | 0.773 (0.727‒0.813) | ||
| PO-AKI | 0.618 (0.564‒0.670) | 0.668 (0.601‒0.728) | 0.699 (0.560‒0.810) | 0.711 (0.629‒0.781) | 0.722 (0.609‒0.812) | ||
| 3-Year composite outcome | SPARK score | Total | 0.777 (0.739‒0.810) | 0.779 (0.734‒0.818) | 0.772 (0.697‒0.834) | 0.783 (0.734‒0.824) | 0.805 (0.741‒0.857) |
| SPARK class ≥B | 0.645 (0.630‒0.661) | 0.691 (0.672‒0.709) | 0.700 (0.663‒0.735) | 0.707 (0.683‒0.729) | 0.746 (0.711‒0.779) | ||
| PO-AKI | 0.581 (0.539‒0.621) | 0.668 (0.612‒0.719) | 0.713 (0.573‒0.821) | 0.683 (0.600‒0.757) | 0.707 (0.593‒0.800) | ||
| SPARK variables | Total | 0.782 (0.745‒0.815) | 0.790 (0.746‒0.828) | 0.777 (0.702‒0.837) | 0.795 (0.747‒0.835) | 0.815 (0.752‒0.865) | |
| SPARK class ≥B | 0.675 (0.659‒0.690) | 0.711 (0.692‒0.729) | 0.703 (0.666‒0.738) | 0.725 (0.702‒0.747) | 0.750 (0.715‒0.782) | ||
| PO-AKI | 0.615 (0.574‒0.655) | 0.687 (0.633‒0.737) | 0.747 (0.611‒0.848) | 0.726 (0.645‒0.795) | 0.741 (0.629‒0.828) | ||
| SPARK coefficient | Total | 0.783 (0.746‒0.816) | 0.799 (0.757‒0.836) | 0.788 (0.715‒0.847) | 0.805 (0.759‒0.845) | 0.832 (0.771‒0.879) | |
| SPARK class ≥B | 0.658 (0.643‒0.673) | 0.690 (0.671‒0.708) | 0.716 (0.680‒0.750) | 0.719 (0.696‒0.740) | 0.755 (0.721‒0.787) | ||
| PO-AKI | 0.603 (0.562‒0.643) | 0.665 (0.610‒0.716) | 0.699 (0.560‒0.810) | 0.711 (0.629‒0.781) | 0.722 (0.609‒0.812) | ||
| . | . | . | . | . | Validation cohort . | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| . | Model . | Population . | Development cohort . | Temporal . | External: SNUBH P1 . | External: SNUBH P2 . | External : SMG-BMC . |
| 1-Year composite outcome | SPARK score | Total | 0.809 (0.754‒0.854) | 0.797 (0.741‒0.844) | 0.839 (0.725‒0.912) | 0.833 (0.768‒0.883) | 0.817 (0.728‒0.882) |
| SPARK class ≥B | 0.680 (0.657‒0.703) | 0.726 (0.701‒0.750) | 0.728 (0.671‒0.778) | 0.739 (0.707‒0.769) | 0.767 (0.720‒0.808) | ||
| PO-AKI | 0.594 (0.539‒0.647) | 0.679 (0.612‒0.740) | 0.713 (0.573‒0.821) | 0.683 (0.600‒0.757) | 0.707 (0.593‒0.800) | ||
| SPARK variables | Total | 0.829 (0.777‒0.871) | 0.820 (0.765‒0.864) | 0.841 (0.727‒0.913) | 0.844 (0.780‒0.892) | 0.826 (0.739‒0.889) | |
| SPARK class ≥B | 0.716 (0.693‒0.737) | 0.750 (0.726‒0.772) | 0.730 (0.674‒0.780) | 0.757 (0.726‒0.786) | 0.771 (0.725‒0.811) | ||
| PO-AKI | 0.649 (0.595‒0.700) | 0.708 (0.642‒0.765) | 0.749 (0.612‒0.849) | 0.731 (0.650‒0.799) | 0.749 (0.612‒0.849) | ||
| SPARK coefficient | Total | 0.806 (0.751‒0.851) | 0.806 (0.751‒0.852) | 0.848 (0.736‒0.918) | 0.848 (0.784‒0.895) | 0.840 (0.754‒0.899) | |
| SPARK class ≥B | 0.681 (0.658‒0.702) | 0.718 (0.693‒0.741) | 0.741 (0.685‒0.789) | 0.742 (0.711‒0.772) | 0.773 (0.727‒0.813) | ||
| PO-AKI | 0.618 (0.564‒0.670) | 0.668 (0.601‒0.728) | 0.699 (0.560‒0.810) | 0.711 (0.629‒0.781) | 0.722 (0.609‒0.812) | ||
| 3-Year composite outcome | SPARK score | Total | 0.777 (0.739‒0.810) | 0.779 (0.734‒0.818) | 0.772 (0.697‒0.834) | 0.783 (0.734‒0.824) | 0.805 (0.741‒0.857) |
| SPARK class ≥B | 0.645 (0.630‒0.661) | 0.691 (0.672‒0.709) | 0.700 (0.663‒0.735) | 0.707 (0.683‒0.729) | 0.746 (0.711‒0.779) | ||
| PO-AKI | 0.581 (0.539‒0.621) | 0.668 (0.612‒0.719) | 0.713 (0.573‒0.821) | 0.683 (0.600‒0.757) | 0.707 (0.593‒0.800) | ||
| SPARK variables | Total | 0.782 (0.745‒0.815) | 0.790 (0.746‒0.828) | 0.777 (0.702‒0.837) | 0.795 (0.747‒0.835) | 0.815 (0.752‒0.865) | |
| SPARK class ≥B | 0.675 (0.659‒0.690) | 0.711 (0.692‒0.729) | 0.703 (0.666‒0.738) | 0.725 (0.702‒0.747) | 0.750 (0.715‒0.782) | ||
| PO-AKI | 0.615 (0.574‒0.655) | 0.687 (0.633‒0.737) | 0.747 (0.611‒0.848) | 0.726 (0.645‒0.795) | 0.741 (0.629‒0.828) | ||
| SPARK coefficient | Total | 0.783 (0.746‒0.816) | 0.799 (0.757‒0.836) | 0.788 (0.715‒0.847) | 0.805 (0.759‒0.845) | 0.832 (0.771‒0.879) | |
| SPARK class ≥B | 0.658 (0.643‒0.673) | 0.690 (0.671‒0.708) | 0.716 (0.680‒0.750) | 0.719 (0.696‒0.740) | 0.755 (0.721‒0.787) | ||
| PO-AKI | 0.603 (0.562‒0.643) | 0.665 (0.610‒0.716) | 0.699 (0.560‒0.810) | 0.711 (0.629‒0.781) | 0.722 (0.609‒0.812) | ||
SNUBH P1, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital Period 1 (2005–12); SNUBH P2, Period 2 (2013–20); SMG-BMC, Seoul Metropolitan Government Boramae Medical Center.
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