| Independent variables . | Model 1 . | Model 2 . | Model 3 . | Model 4 . | Model 5 . |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National incumbent | −0.348*** | −0.571*** | −0.497*** | −0.477*** | −0.477*** |
| (0.101) | (0.108) | (0.101) | (0.101) | (0.101) | |
| National career | −0.127*** | −0.190*** | −0.268*** | −0.200*** | −0.200*** |
| (0.0506) | (0.0505) | (0.0593) | (0.0551) | (0.0502) | |
| Localness | −0.182*** | −0.179*** | −0.178*** | −0.178*** | −0.179*** |
| (0.0246) | (0.0265) | (0.0250) | (0.0259) | (0.0256) | |
| Female | 0.186*** | 0.181*** | 0.177*** | 0.183*** | 0.186*** |
| (0.0461) | (0.0460) | (0.0460) | (0.0554) | (0.0467) | |
| Dual candidate | −0.285*** | −0.426*** | 0.746** | −0.267*** | −0.264* |
| (0.0603) | (0.0886) | (0.203) | (0.0580) | (0.101) | |
| Dual candidate × incumbent | – | 0.383** | – | – | – |
| – | (0.125) | – | – | – | |
| Dual candidate × national career | – | – | 0.612** | – | – |
| – | – | (0.200) | – | – | |
| Dual candidate × female | – | – | – | 0.014 | – |
| – | – | – | (0.111) | – | |
| Dual candidate × local candidate | – | – | – | – | 0.0045 |
| – | – | – | – | (0.0761) | |
| Control variables | |||||
| Age cohort reference category: 25–34 | |||||
| 35–44 | −0.272** | −0.257** | −0.258** | −0.256** | −0.257** |
| (0.0692) | (0.0739) | (0.0761) | (0.0695) | (0.0693) | |
| 45–54 | −0.346** | −0.358** | −0.363** | −0.355** | −0.355** |
| (0.0994) | (0.102) | (0.103) | (0.0990) | (0.0994) | |
| 55–64 | −0.292** | −0.315** | −0.307** | −0.313** | −0.314** |
| (0.0883) | (0.0886) | (0.0885) | (0.0870) | (0.0885) | |
| 65–74 | −0.365*** | −0.411*** | −0.423*** | −0.419*** | −0.419*** |
| (0.0769) | (0.0800) | (0.0819) | (0.0759) | (0.0768) | |
| 75 or more | −0.469*** | −0.787*** | −0.739*** | -0.758*** | -0.759*** |
| (0.172) | (0.158) | (0.163) | (0.173) | (0.174) | |
| Pluri-candidacy | −0.133*** | −0.133*** | −0.132*** | −0.133*** | −0.133*** |
| (0.0115) | (0.0119) | (0.0113) | (0.0117) | (0.0115) | |
| Party magnitude | 0.007** | 0.00884** | 0.00928** | 0.00876** | 0.00879** |
| (0.00245) | (0.00248) | (0.00247) | (0.00246) | (0.00246) | |
| _cons | 3.134*** | 3.333*** | 3.360*** | 3.317*** | 3.316*** |
| (0.0717) | (0.0762) | (0.0725) | (0.078) | (0.0762) | |
| N | 1898 | 1898 | 1898 | 1898 | 1898 |
| R-sq | 0.174 | 0.174 | 0.174 | 0.174 | 0.174 |
| Independent variables . | Model 1 . | Model 2 . | Model 3 . | Model 4 . | Model 5 . |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National incumbent | −0.348*** | −0.571*** | −0.497*** | −0.477*** | −0.477*** |
| (0.101) | (0.108) | (0.101) | (0.101) | (0.101) | |
| National career | −0.127*** | −0.190*** | −0.268*** | −0.200*** | −0.200*** |
| (0.0506) | (0.0505) | (0.0593) | (0.0551) | (0.0502) | |
| Localness | −0.182*** | −0.179*** | −0.178*** | −0.178*** | −0.179*** |
| (0.0246) | (0.0265) | (0.0250) | (0.0259) | (0.0256) | |
| Female | 0.186*** | 0.181*** | 0.177*** | 0.183*** | 0.186*** |
| (0.0461) | (0.0460) | (0.0460) | (0.0554) | (0.0467) | |
| Dual candidate | −0.285*** | −0.426*** | 0.746** | −0.267*** | −0.264* |
| (0.0603) | (0.0886) | (0.203) | (0.0580) | (0.101) | |
| Dual candidate × incumbent | – | 0.383** | – | – | – |
| – | (0.125) | – | – | – | |
| Dual candidate × national career | – | – | 0.612** | – | – |
| – | – | (0.200) | – | – | |
| Dual candidate × female | – | – | – | 0.014 | – |
| – | – | – | (0.111) | – | |
| Dual candidate × local candidate | – | – | – | – | 0.0045 |
| – | – | – | – | (0.0761) | |
| Control variables | |||||
| Age cohort reference category: 25–34 | |||||
| 35–44 | −0.272** | −0.257** | −0.258** | −0.256** | −0.257** |
| (0.0692) | (0.0739) | (0.0761) | (0.0695) | (0.0693) | |
| 45–54 | −0.346** | −0.358** | −0.363** | −0.355** | −0.355** |
| (0.0994) | (0.102) | (0.103) | (0.0990) | (0.0994) | |
| 55–64 | −0.292** | −0.315** | −0.307** | −0.313** | −0.314** |
| (0.0883) | (0.0886) | (0.0885) | (0.0870) | (0.0885) | |
| 65–74 | −0.365*** | −0.411*** | −0.423*** | −0.419*** | −0.419*** |
| (0.0769) | (0.0800) | (0.0819) | (0.0759) | (0.0768) | |
| 75 or more | −0.469*** | −0.787*** | −0.739*** | -0.758*** | -0.759*** |
| (0.172) | (0.158) | (0.163) | (0.173) | (0.174) | |
| Pluri-candidacy | −0.133*** | −0.133*** | −0.132*** | −0.133*** | −0.133*** |
| (0.0115) | (0.0119) | (0.0113) | (0.0117) | (0.0115) | |
| Party magnitude | 0.007** | 0.00884** | 0.00928** | 0.00876** | 0.00879** |
| (0.00245) | (0.00248) | (0.00247) | (0.00246) | (0.00246) | |
| _cons | 3.134*** | 3.333*** | 3.360*** | 3.317*** | 3.316*** |
| (0.0717) | (0.0762) | (0.0725) | (0.078) | (0.0762) | |
| N | 1898 | 1898 | 1898 | 1898 | 1898 |
| R-sq | 0.174 | 0.174 | 0.174 | 0.174 | 0.174 |
Standard errors in parentheses.
*P < 0.05, **P < 0.01, ***P < 0.001.
| Independent variables . | Model 1 . | Model 2 . | Model 3 . | Model 4 . | Model 5 . |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National incumbent | −0.348*** | −0.571*** | −0.497*** | −0.477*** | −0.477*** |
| (0.101) | (0.108) | (0.101) | (0.101) | (0.101) | |
| National career | −0.127*** | −0.190*** | −0.268*** | −0.200*** | −0.200*** |
| (0.0506) | (0.0505) | (0.0593) | (0.0551) | (0.0502) | |
| Localness | −0.182*** | −0.179*** | −0.178*** | −0.178*** | −0.179*** |
| (0.0246) | (0.0265) | (0.0250) | (0.0259) | (0.0256) | |
| Female | 0.186*** | 0.181*** | 0.177*** | 0.183*** | 0.186*** |
| (0.0461) | (0.0460) | (0.0460) | (0.0554) | (0.0467) | |
| Dual candidate | −0.285*** | −0.426*** | 0.746** | −0.267*** | −0.264* |
| (0.0603) | (0.0886) | (0.203) | (0.0580) | (0.101) | |
| Dual candidate × incumbent | – | 0.383** | – | – | – |
| – | (0.125) | – | – | – | |
| Dual candidate × national career | – | – | 0.612** | – | – |
| – | – | (0.200) | – | – | |
| Dual candidate × female | – | – | – | 0.014 | – |
| – | – | – | (0.111) | – | |
| Dual candidate × local candidate | – | – | – | – | 0.0045 |
| – | – | – | – | (0.0761) | |
| Control variables | |||||
| Age cohort reference category: 25–34 | |||||
| 35–44 | −0.272** | −0.257** | −0.258** | −0.256** | −0.257** |
| (0.0692) | (0.0739) | (0.0761) | (0.0695) | (0.0693) | |
| 45–54 | −0.346** | −0.358** | −0.363** | −0.355** | −0.355** |
| (0.0994) | (0.102) | (0.103) | (0.0990) | (0.0994) | |
| 55–64 | −0.292** | −0.315** | −0.307** | −0.313** | −0.314** |
| (0.0883) | (0.0886) | (0.0885) | (0.0870) | (0.0885) | |
| 65–74 | −0.365*** | −0.411*** | −0.423*** | −0.419*** | −0.419*** |
| (0.0769) | (0.0800) | (0.0819) | (0.0759) | (0.0768) | |
| 75 or more | −0.469*** | −0.787*** | −0.739*** | -0.758*** | -0.759*** |
| (0.172) | (0.158) | (0.163) | (0.173) | (0.174) | |
| Pluri-candidacy | −0.133*** | −0.133*** | −0.132*** | −0.133*** | −0.133*** |
| (0.0115) | (0.0119) | (0.0113) | (0.0117) | (0.0115) | |
| Party magnitude | 0.007** | 0.00884** | 0.00928** | 0.00876** | 0.00879** |
| (0.00245) | (0.00248) | (0.00247) | (0.00246) | (0.00246) | |
| _cons | 3.134*** | 3.333*** | 3.360*** | 3.317*** | 3.316*** |
| (0.0717) | (0.0762) | (0.0725) | (0.078) | (0.0762) | |
| N | 1898 | 1898 | 1898 | 1898 | 1898 |
| R-sq | 0.174 | 0.174 | 0.174 | 0.174 | 0.174 |
| Independent variables . | Model 1 . | Model 2 . | Model 3 . | Model 4 . | Model 5 . |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National incumbent | −0.348*** | −0.571*** | −0.497*** | −0.477*** | −0.477*** |
| (0.101) | (0.108) | (0.101) | (0.101) | (0.101) | |
| National career | −0.127*** | −0.190*** | −0.268*** | −0.200*** | −0.200*** |
| (0.0506) | (0.0505) | (0.0593) | (0.0551) | (0.0502) | |
| Localness | −0.182*** | −0.179*** | −0.178*** | −0.178*** | −0.179*** |
| (0.0246) | (0.0265) | (0.0250) | (0.0259) | (0.0256) | |
| Female | 0.186*** | 0.181*** | 0.177*** | 0.183*** | 0.186*** |
| (0.0461) | (0.0460) | (0.0460) | (0.0554) | (0.0467) | |
| Dual candidate | −0.285*** | −0.426*** | 0.746** | −0.267*** | −0.264* |
| (0.0603) | (0.0886) | (0.203) | (0.0580) | (0.101) | |
| Dual candidate × incumbent | – | 0.383** | – | – | – |
| – | (0.125) | – | – | – | |
| Dual candidate × national career | – | – | 0.612** | – | – |
| – | – | (0.200) | – | – | |
| Dual candidate × female | – | – | – | 0.014 | – |
| – | – | – | (0.111) | – | |
| Dual candidate × local candidate | – | – | – | – | 0.0045 |
| – | – | – | – | (0.0761) | |
| Control variables | |||||
| Age cohort reference category: 25–34 | |||||
| 35–44 | −0.272** | −0.257** | −0.258** | −0.256** | −0.257** |
| (0.0692) | (0.0739) | (0.0761) | (0.0695) | (0.0693) | |
| 45–54 | −0.346** | −0.358** | −0.363** | −0.355** | −0.355** |
| (0.0994) | (0.102) | (0.103) | (0.0990) | (0.0994) | |
| 55–64 | −0.292** | −0.315** | −0.307** | −0.313** | −0.314** |
| (0.0883) | (0.0886) | (0.0885) | (0.0870) | (0.0885) | |
| 65–74 | −0.365*** | −0.411*** | −0.423*** | −0.419*** | −0.419*** |
| (0.0769) | (0.0800) | (0.0819) | (0.0759) | (0.0768) | |
| 75 or more | −0.469*** | −0.787*** | −0.739*** | -0.758*** | -0.759*** |
| (0.172) | (0.158) | (0.163) | (0.173) | (0.174) | |
| Pluri-candidacy | −0.133*** | −0.133*** | −0.132*** | −0.133*** | −0.133*** |
| (0.0115) | (0.0119) | (0.0113) | (0.0117) | (0.0115) | |
| Party magnitude | 0.007** | 0.00884** | 0.00928** | 0.00876** | 0.00879** |
| (0.00245) | (0.00248) | (0.00247) | (0.00246) | (0.00246) | |
| _cons | 3.134*** | 3.333*** | 3.360*** | 3.317*** | 3.316*** |
| (0.0717) | (0.0762) | (0.0725) | (0.078) | (0.0762) | |
| N | 1898 | 1898 | 1898 | 1898 | 1898 |
| R-sq | 0.174 | 0.174 | 0.174 | 0.174 | 0.174 |
Standard errors in parentheses.
*P < 0.05, **P < 0.01, ***P < 0.001.
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