Table 4 Open in new tab Predictors of...

	Cancer	Heart failure	Combined
Age at enrolment (for each year)	1.04 (1.01–1.06)	0.008	1.04 (1.00–1.08)	0.056	1.05 (1.02–1.07)	<0.001
Male sex	1.54 (1.30–1.81)	<0.001	1.29 (1.00–1.66)	0.047	1.52 (1.32–1.75)	<0.001
Diabetes	1.00 (0.81–1.25)	0.977	1.57 (1.19–2.07)	0.002	1.25 (1.04–1.49)	0.014
Obesity^a (vs. other BMI categories)	1.08 (0.89–1.31)	0.419	1.14 (0.86–1.52)	0.353	1.08 (0.92–1.28)	0.334
Smoking (current or ex-smoker vs. never smoked)	1.43 (1.20–1.70)	<0.001	1.12 (0.87–1.45)	0.380	1.37 (1.18–1.59)	<0.001
Alcohol (regular drinkers vs. occasionally or non-drinkers)	1.02 (0.88–1.19)	0.757	0.91 (0.72–1.15)	0.438	1.00 (0.88–1.14)	0.995
MI	1.11 (0.85–1.43)	0.445	1.78 (1.29–2.46)	<0.001	1.31 (1.06–1.61)	0.013
Angina	0.77 (0.58–1.01)	0.055	1.61 (1.17–2.23)	0.004	1.02 (0.82–1.26)	0.869
Stroke	1.33 (0.80–2.23)	0.276	0.72 (0.32–1.63)	0.434	1.16 (0.74–1.82)	0.514
CKD^b	0.96 (0.80–1.14)	0.618	1.27 (0.99–1.62)	0.056	1.09 (0.94–1.26)	0.261
COPD	1.43 (1.02–1.99)	0.035	1.06 (0.62–1.79)	0.841	1.35 (1.01–1.81)	0.044
hsCRP	1.08 (1.01–1.15)	0.017	1.10 (1.00–1.20)	0.057	1.11 (1.05–1.18)	<0.001

Cancer

Heart failure

Combined

HR (95% CI)

Age at enrolment (for each year)

1.04 (1.01–1.06)

0.008

1.04 (1.00–1.08)

0.056

1.05 (1.02–1.07)

<0.001

Male sex

1.54 (1.30–1.81)

<0.001

1.29 (1.00–1.66)

0.047

1.52 (1.32–1.75)

<0.001

Diabetes

1.00 (0.81–1.25)

0.977

1.57 (1.19–2.07)

0.002

1.25 (1.04–1.49)

0.014

Obesity^a (vs. other BMI categories)

1.08 (0.89–1.31)

0.419

1.14 (0.86–1.52)

0.353

1.08 (0.92–1.28)

0.334

Smoking (current or ex-smoker vs. never smoked)

1.43 (1.20–1.70)

<0.001

1.12 (0.87–1.45)

0.380

1.37 (1.18–1.59)

<0.001

Alcohol (regular drinkers vs. occasionally or non-drinkers)

1.02 (0.88–1.19)

0.757

0.91 (0.72–1.15)

0.438

1.00 (0.88–1.14)

0.995

1.11 (0.85–1.43)

0.445

1.78 (1.29–2.46)

<0.001

1.31 (1.06–1.61)

0.013

Angina

0.77 (0.58–1.01)

0.055

1.61 (1.17–2.23)

0.004

1.02 (0.82–1.26)

0.869

Stroke

1.33 (0.80–2.23)

0.276

0.72 (0.32–1.63)

0.434

1.16 (0.74–1.82)

0.514

CKD^b

0.96 (0.80–1.14)

0.618

1.27 (0.99–1.62)

0.056

1.09 (0.94–1.26)

0.261

COPD

1.43 (1.02–1.99)

0.035

1.06 (0.62–1.79)

0.841

1.35 (1.01–1.81)

0.044

hsCRP

1.08 (1.01–1.15)

0.017

1.10 (1.00–1.20)

0.057

1.11 (1.05–1.18)

<0.001

	Cancer	Heart failure	Combined
Age at enrolment (for each year)	1.04 (1.01–1.06)	0.008	1.04 (1.00–1.08)	0.056	1.05 (1.02–1.07)	<0.001
Male sex	1.54 (1.30–1.81)	<0.001	1.29 (1.00–1.66)	0.047	1.52 (1.32–1.75)	<0.001
Diabetes	1.00 (0.81–1.25)	0.977	1.57 (1.19–2.07)	0.002	1.25 (1.04–1.49)	0.014
Obesity^a (vs. other BMI categories)	1.08 (0.89–1.31)	0.419	1.14 (0.86–1.52)	0.353	1.08 (0.92–1.28)	0.334
Smoking (current or ex-smoker vs. never smoked)	1.43 (1.20–1.70)	<0.001	1.12 (0.87–1.45)	0.380	1.37 (1.18–1.59)	<0.001
Alcohol (regular drinkers vs. occasionally or non-drinkers)	1.02 (0.88–1.19)	0.757	0.91 (0.72–1.15)	0.438	1.00 (0.88–1.14)	0.995
MI	1.11 (0.85–1.43)	0.445	1.78 (1.29–2.46)	<0.001	1.31 (1.06–1.61)	0.013
Angina	0.77 (0.58–1.01)	0.055	1.61 (1.17–2.23)	0.004	1.02 (0.82–1.26)	0.869
Stroke	1.33 (0.80–2.23)	0.276	0.72 (0.32–1.63)	0.434	1.16 (0.74–1.82)	0.514
CKD^b	0.96 (0.80–1.14)	0.618	1.27 (0.99–1.62)	0.056	1.09 (0.94–1.26)	0.261
COPD	1.43 (1.02–1.99)	0.035	1.06 (0.62–1.79)	0.841	1.35 (1.01–1.81)	0.044
hsCRP	1.08 (1.01–1.15)	0.017	1.10 (1.00–1.20)	0.057	1.11 (1.05–1.18)	<0.001

Table 4

Open in new tab

Predictors of incident heart failure or cancer in the Health ABC study cohort

	Cancer		Heart failure		Combined
	HR (95% CI)	P	HR (95% CI)	P	HR (95% CI)	P
Age at enrolment (for each year)	1.04 (1.01–1.06)	0.008	1.04 (1.00–1.08)	0.056	1.05 (1.02–1.07)	<0.001
Male sex	1.54 (1.30–1.81)	<0.001	1.29 (1.00–1.66)	0.047	1.52 (1.32–1.75)	<0.001
Diabetes	1.00 (0.81–1.25)	0.977	1.57 (1.19–2.07)	0.002	1.25 (1.04–1.49)	0.014
Obesity^a (vs. other BMI categories)	1.08 (0.89–1.31)	0.419	1.14 (0.86–1.52)	0.353	1.08 (0.92–1.28)	0.334
Smoking (current or ex-smoker vs. never smoked)	1.43 (1.20–1.70)	<0.001	1.12 (0.87–1.45)	0.380	1.37 (1.18–1.59)	<0.001
Alcohol (regular drinkers vs. occasionally or non-drinkers)	1.02 (0.88–1.19)	0.757	0.91 (0.72–1.15)	0.438	1.00 (0.88–1.14)	0.995
MI	1.11 (0.85–1.43)	0.445	1.78 (1.29–2.46)	<0.001	1.31 (1.06–1.61)	0.013
Angina	0.77 (0.58–1.01)	0.055	1.61 (1.17–2.23)	0.004	1.02 (0.82–1.26)	0.869
Stroke	1.33 (0.80–2.23)	0.276	0.72 (0.32–1.63)	0.434	1.16 (0.74–1.82)	0.514
CKD^b	0.96 (0.80–1.14)	0.618	1.27 (0.99–1.62)	0.056	1.09 (0.94–1.26)	0.261
COPD	1.43 (1.02–1.99)	0.035	1.06 (0.62–1.79)	0.841	1.35 (1.01–1.81)	0.044
hsCRP	1.08 (1.01–1.15)	0.017	1.10 (1.00–1.20)	0.057	1.11 (1.05–1.18)	<0.001

	Cancer		Heart failure		Combined
	HR (95% CI)	P	HR (95% CI)	P	HR (95% CI)	P
Age at enrolment (for each year)	1.04 (1.01–1.06)	0.008	1.04 (1.00–1.08)	0.056	1.05 (1.02–1.07)	<0.001
Male sex	1.54 (1.30–1.81)	<0.001	1.29 (1.00–1.66)	0.047	1.52 (1.32–1.75)	<0.001
Diabetes	1.00 (0.81–1.25)	0.977	1.57 (1.19–2.07)	0.002	1.25 (1.04–1.49)	0.014
Obesity^a (vs. other BMI categories)	1.08 (0.89–1.31)	0.419	1.14 (0.86–1.52)	0.353	1.08 (0.92–1.28)	0.334
Smoking (current or ex-smoker vs. never smoked)	1.43 (1.20–1.70)	<0.001	1.12 (0.87–1.45)	0.380	1.37 (1.18–1.59)	<0.001
Alcohol (regular drinkers vs. occasionally or non-drinkers)	1.02 (0.88–1.19)	0.757	0.91 (0.72–1.15)	0.438	1.00 (0.88–1.14)	0.995
MI	1.11 (0.85–1.43)	0.445	1.78 (1.29–2.46)	<0.001	1.31 (1.06–1.61)	0.013
Angina	0.77 (0.58–1.01)	0.055	1.61 (1.17–2.23)	0.004	1.02 (0.82–1.26)	0.869
Stroke	1.33 (0.80–2.23)	0.276	0.72 (0.32–1.63)	0.434	1.16 (0.74–1.82)	0.514
CKD^b	0.96 (0.80–1.14)	0.618	1.27 (0.99–1.62)	0.056	1.09 (0.94–1.26)	0.261
COPD	1.43 (1.02–1.99)	0.035	1.06 (0.62–1.79)	0.841	1.35 (1.01–1.81)	0.044
hsCRP	1.08 (1.01–1.15)	0.017	1.10 (1.00–1.20)	0.057	1.11 (1.05–1.18)	<0.001

Bold indicates statistically significant. BMI, body mass index; CKD, chronic kidney disease; COPD, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; hsCRP, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein; MI, myocardial infarction.

^aBody mass index ≥ 30 kg/m².

^beGFR < 60 mL/min/1.73 m², as calculated with the CKD-EPI formula.

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