Table 1. Open in new tab Modeled...

	All cigarettes per day	Manufactured cigarettes per day	Hand-rolled cigarettes per day
All adult (≥18 years) smokers	13.6 [13.3 to 13.9]	10.6 [10.3 to 11.0]	−22.1	9.5 [9.2 to 9.8]	5.0 [4.7 to 5.3]	−47.0	4.2 [3.9 to 4.4]	5.6 [5.3 to 5.9]	+34.9
Main type of cigarettes smoked³
Manufactured	13.5 [13.1 to 13.8]	10.7 [10.2 to 11.2]	−20.7	13.2 [12.9 to 13.6]	10.5 [10.0 to 10.9]	−20.9	0.24 [0.19 to 0.28]	0.21 [0.16 to 0.27]	−9.5
Hand-rolled	14.1 [13.6 to 14.6]	10.6 [10.1 to 11.1]	−24.8	0.95 [0.80 to 1.1]	0.35 [0.25 to 0.44]	−63.5	13.1 [12.6 to 13.6]	10.3 [9.8 to 10.7]	−21.8
Frequency of smoking
Non-daily	4.9 [4.3 to 5.5]	3.1 [2.8 to 3.4]	−36.4	3.8 [3.3 to 4.4]	1.7 [1.5 to 2.0]	−54.3	1.1 [0.7 to 1.4]	1.4 [1.1 to 1.6]	+30.8
Daily	14.6 [14.3 to 14.9]	13.1 [12.7 to 13.4]	−10.7	10.1 [9.8 to 10.5]	6.1 [5.7 to 6.5]	−39.8	4.5 [4.2 to 4.8]	7.0 [6.6 to 7.4]	+54.3
Age (years)⁴
18	10.5 [9.8 to 11.2]	6.5 [5.7 to 7.3]	−37.9	7.9 [7.2 to 8.6]	1.9 [1.3 to 2.5]	−75.9	2.6 [2.0 to 3.1]	4.6 [3.9 to 5.3]	+79.7
25	12.0 [11.6 to 12.5]	8.1 [7.6 to 8.6]	−32.5	8.4 [8.0 to 8.9]	2.7 [2.4 to 3.1]	−67.4	3.6 [3.2 to 4.0]	5.3 [4.9 to 5.8]	+49.0
35	13.9 [13.6 to 14.3]	10.2 [9.8 to 10.6]	−26.8	9.2 [8.7 to 9.6]	4.0 [3.6 to 4.3]	−56.7	4.8 [4.5 to 5.1]	6.2 [5.8 to 6.6]	+29.5
45	15.0 [14.6 to 15.5]	11.7 [11.2 to 12.2]	−22.4	9.8 [9.3 to 10.3]	5.2 [4.7 to 5.7]	−47.1	5.2 [4.8 to 5.6]	6.4 [6.0 to 6.9]	+23.7
55	15.2 [14.8 to 15.6]	12.4 [12.0 to 12.9]	−18.1	10.5 [10.0 to 11.0]	6.5 [6.1 to 6.9]	−38.1	4.7 [4.3 to 5.1]	6.0 [5.5 to 6.4]	+26.6
65	14.8 [14.2 to 15.3]	12.8 [12.2 to 13.3]	−13.5	11.2 [10.6 to 11.7]	7.8 [7.3 to 8.4]	−29.9	3.6 [3.2 to 4.0]	5.0 [4.5 to 5.5]	+38.8
Gender
Men	14.4 [14.0 to 14.9]	11.5 [11.0 to 12.0]	−20.4	9.1 [8.7 to 9.6]	5.2 [4.8 to 5.7]	−42.9	5.3 [4.9 to 5.7]	6.4 [5.9 to 6.9]	+19.5
Women	12.9 [12.5 to 13.2]	9.5 [9.1 to 9.9]	−26.4	9.8 [9.4 to 10.2]	4.7 [4.3 to 5.0]	−52.5	3.1 [2.8 to 3.3]	4.8 [4.4 to 5.2]	+57.1
Occupational social grade
ABC1 (more advantaged)	12.3 [11.8 to 12.8]	9.8 [9.4 to 10.3]	−20.0	9.6 [9.1 to 10.1]	5.4 [5.0 to 5.8]	−43.7	2.7 [2.3 to 3.0]	4.4 [4.1 to 4.8]	+65.5
C2DE (less advantaged)	14.5 [14.1 to 14.9]	11.2 [10.8 to 11.7]	−22.5	9.4 [9.0 to 9.8]	4.8 [4.4 to 5.2]	−49.3	5.1 [4.8 to 5.5]	6.5 [6.1 to 7.0]	+27.3
Region in England
North	14.3 [13.8 to 14.8]	11.3 [10.7 to 11.9]	−20.9	10.3 [9.8 to 10.8]	5.7 [5.1 to 6.2]	−45.2	3.9 [3.5 to 4.4]	5.6 [5.0 to 6.2]	+42.9
Midlands	13.8 [13.3 to 14.4]	11.1 [10.5 to 11.8]	−19.6	9.2 [8.6 to 9.8]	4.9 [4.4 to 5.5]	−46.4	4.6 [4.1 to 5.1]	6.2 [5.6 to 6.8]	+34.3
South	12.8 [12.3 to 13.3]	9.9 [9.4 to 10.4]	−22.8	8.8 [8.3 to 9.3]	4.7 [4.3 to 5.1]	−46.8	4.0 [3.6 to 4.4]	5.2 [4.8 to 5.7]	+30.6
Current use of NRT
No	13.4 [13.1 to 13.7]	10.5 [10.1 to 10.8]	−22.0	9.2 [8.8 to 9.5]	5.0 [4.7 to 5.3]	−45.7	4.3 [4.0 to 4.5]	5.5 [5.2 to 5.8]	+29.2
Yes	14.6 [13.9 to 15.3]	12.0 [10.9 to 13.1]	−18.0	10.8 [10.0 to 11.6]	5.5 [4.7 to 6.3]	−49.3	3.8 [3.2 to 4.4]	6.6 [5.5 to 7.8]	+72.9

All cigarettes per day

Manufactured cigarettes per day

Hand-rolled cigarettes per day

Mean [95%CI]¹

% change²

Mean [95%CI]¹

% change²

Mean [95%CI]¹

% change²

Jan 2008

Sept 2023

Jan 2008

Sept 2023

Jan 2008

Sept 2023

All adult (≥18 years) smokers

13.6 [13.3 to 13.9]

10.6 [10.3 to 11.0]

−22.1

9.5 [9.2 to 9.8]

5.0 [4.7 to 5.3]

−47.0

4.2 [3.9 to 4.4]

5.6 [5.3 to 5.9]

+34.9

Main type of cigarettes smoked³

Manufactured

13.5 [13.1 to 13.8]

10.7 [10.2 to 11.2]

−20.7

13.2 [12.9 to 13.6]

10.5 [10.0 to 10.9]

−20.9

0.24 [0.19 to 0.28]

0.21 [0.16 to 0.27]

−9.5

Hand-rolled

14.1 [13.6 to 14.6]

10.6 [10.1 to 11.1]

−24.8

0.95 [0.80 to 1.1]

0.35 [0.25 to 0.44]

−63.5

13.1 [12.6 to 13.6]

10.3 [9.8 to 10.7]

−21.8

Frequency of smoking

Non-daily

4.9 [4.3 to 5.5]

3.1 [2.8 to 3.4]

−36.4

3.8 [3.3 to 4.4]

1.7 [1.5 to 2.0]

−54.3

1.1 [0.7 to 1.4]

1.4 [1.1 to 1.6]

+30.8

Daily

14.6 [14.3 to 14.9]

13.1 [12.7 to 13.4]

−10.7

10.1 [9.8 to 10.5]

6.1 [5.7 to 6.5]

−39.8

4.5 [4.2 to 4.8]

7.0 [6.6 to 7.4]

+54.3

Age (years)⁴

10.5 [9.8 to 11.2]

6.5 [5.7 to 7.3]

−37.9

7.9 [7.2 to 8.6]

1.9 [1.3 to 2.5]

−75.9

2.6 [2.0 to 3.1]

4.6 [3.9 to 5.3]

+79.7

12.0 [11.6 to 12.5]

8.1 [7.6 to 8.6]

−32.5

8.4 [8.0 to 8.9]

2.7 [2.4 to 3.1]

−67.4

3.6 [3.2 to 4.0]

5.3 [4.9 to 5.8]

+49.0

13.9 [13.6 to 14.3]

10.2 [9.8 to 10.6]

−26.8

9.2 [8.7 to 9.6]

4.0 [3.6 to 4.3]

−56.7

4.8 [4.5 to 5.1]

6.2 [5.8 to 6.6]

+29.5

15.0 [14.6 to 15.5]

11.7 [11.2 to 12.2]

−22.4

9.8 [9.3 to 10.3]

5.2 [4.7 to 5.7]

−47.1

5.2 [4.8 to 5.6]

6.4 [6.0 to 6.9]

+23.7

15.2 [14.8 to 15.6]

12.4 [12.0 to 12.9]

−18.1

10.5 [10.0 to 11.0]

6.5 [6.1 to 6.9]

−38.1

4.7 [4.3 to 5.1]

6.0 [5.5 to 6.4]

+26.6

14.8 [14.2 to 15.3]

12.8 [12.2 to 13.3]

−13.5

11.2 [10.6 to 11.7]

7.8 [7.3 to 8.4]

−29.9

3.6 [3.2 to 4.0]

5.0 [4.5 to 5.5]

+38.8

Gender

Men

14.4 [14.0 to 14.9]

11.5 [11.0 to 12.0]

−20.4

9.1 [8.7 to 9.6]

5.2 [4.8 to 5.7]

−42.9

5.3 [4.9 to 5.7]

6.4 [5.9 to 6.9]

+19.5

Women

12.9 [12.5 to 13.2]

9.5 [9.1 to 9.9]

−26.4

9.8 [9.4 to 10.2]

4.7 [4.3 to 5.0]

−52.5

3.1 [2.8 to 3.3]

4.8 [4.4 to 5.2]

+57.1

Occupational social grade

ABC1 (more advantaged)

12.3 [11.8 to 12.8]

9.8 [9.4 to 10.3]

−20.0

9.6 [9.1 to 10.1]

5.4 [5.0 to 5.8]

−43.7

2.7 [2.3 to 3.0]

4.4 [4.1 to 4.8]

+65.5

C2DE (less advantaged)

14.5 [14.1 to 14.9]

11.2 [10.8 to 11.7]

−22.5

9.4 [9.0 to 9.8]

4.8 [4.4 to 5.2]

−49.3

5.1 [4.8 to 5.5]

6.5 [6.1 to 7.0]

+27.3

Region in England

North

14.3 [13.8 to 14.8]

11.3 [10.7 to 11.9]

−20.9

10.3 [9.8 to 10.8]

5.7 [5.1 to 6.2]

−45.2

3.9 [3.5 to 4.4]

5.6 [5.0 to 6.2]

+42.9

Midlands

13.8 [13.3 to 14.4]

11.1 [10.5 to 11.8]

−19.6

9.2 [8.6 to 9.8]

4.9 [4.4 to 5.5]

−46.4

4.6 [4.1 to 5.1]

6.2 [5.6 to 6.8]

+34.3

South

12.8 [12.3 to 13.3]

9.9 [9.4 to 10.4]

−22.8

8.8 [8.3 to 9.3]

4.7 [4.3 to 5.1]

−46.8

4.0 [3.6 to 4.4]

5.2 [4.8 to 5.7]

+30.6

Current use of NRT

13.4 [13.1 to 13.7]

10.5 [10.1 to 10.8]

−22.0

9.2 [8.8 to 9.5]

5.0 [4.7 to 5.3]

−45.7

4.3 [4.0 to 4.5]

5.5 [5.2 to 5.8]

+29.2

Yes

14.6 [13.9 to 15.3]

12.0 [10.9 to 13.1]

−18.0

10.8 [10.0 to 11.6]

5.5 [4.7 to 6.3]

−49.3

3.8 [3.2 to 4.4]

6.6 [5.5 to 7.8]

+72.9

	All cigarettes per day	Manufactured cigarettes per day	Hand-rolled cigarettes per day
All adult (≥18 years) smokers	13.6 [13.3 to 13.9]	10.6 [10.3 to 11.0]	−22.1	9.5 [9.2 to 9.8]	5.0 [4.7 to 5.3]	−47.0	4.2 [3.9 to 4.4]	5.6 [5.3 to 5.9]	+34.9
Main type of cigarettes smoked³
Manufactured	13.5 [13.1 to 13.8]	10.7 [10.2 to 11.2]	−20.7	13.2 [12.9 to 13.6]	10.5 [10.0 to 10.9]	−20.9	0.24 [0.19 to 0.28]	0.21 [0.16 to 0.27]	−9.5
Hand-rolled	14.1 [13.6 to 14.6]	10.6 [10.1 to 11.1]	−24.8	0.95 [0.80 to 1.1]	0.35 [0.25 to 0.44]	−63.5	13.1 [12.6 to 13.6]	10.3 [9.8 to 10.7]	−21.8
Frequency of smoking
Non-daily	4.9 [4.3 to 5.5]	3.1 [2.8 to 3.4]	−36.4	3.8 [3.3 to 4.4]	1.7 [1.5 to 2.0]	−54.3	1.1 [0.7 to 1.4]	1.4 [1.1 to 1.6]	+30.8
Daily	14.6 [14.3 to 14.9]	13.1 [12.7 to 13.4]	−10.7	10.1 [9.8 to 10.5]	6.1 [5.7 to 6.5]	−39.8	4.5 [4.2 to 4.8]	7.0 [6.6 to 7.4]	+54.3
Age (years)⁴
18	10.5 [9.8 to 11.2]	6.5 [5.7 to 7.3]	−37.9	7.9 [7.2 to 8.6]	1.9 [1.3 to 2.5]	−75.9	2.6 [2.0 to 3.1]	4.6 [3.9 to 5.3]	+79.7
25	12.0 [11.6 to 12.5]	8.1 [7.6 to 8.6]	−32.5	8.4 [8.0 to 8.9]	2.7 [2.4 to 3.1]	−67.4	3.6 [3.2 to 4.0]	5.3 [4.9 to 5.8]	+49.0
35	13.9 [13.6 to 14.3]	10.2 [9.8 to 10.6]	−26.8	9.2 [8.7 to 9.6]	4.0 [3.6 to 4.3]	−56.7	4.8 [4.5 to 5.1]	6.2 [5.8 to 6.6]	+29.5
45	15.0 [14.6 to 15.5]	11.7 [11.2 to 12.2]	−22.4	9.8 [9.3 to 10.3]	5.2 [4.7 to 5.7]	−47.1	5.2 [4.8 to 5.6]	6.4 [6.0 to 6.9]	+23.7
55	15.2 [14.8 to 15.6]	12.4 [12.0 to 12.9]	−18.1	10.5 [10.0 to 11.0]	6.5 [6.1 to 6.9]	−38.1	4.7 [4.3 to 5.1]	6.0 [5.5 to 6.4]	+26.6
65	14.8 [14.2 to 15.3]	12.8 [12.2 to 13.3]	−13.5	11.2 [10.6 to 11.7]	7.8 [7.3 to 8.4]	−29.9	3.6 [3.2 to 4.0]	5.0 [4.5 to 5.5]	+38.8
Gender
Men	14.4 [14.0 to 14.9]	11.5 [11.0 to 12.0]	−20.4	9.1 [8.7 to 9.6]	5.2 [4.8 to 5.7]	−42.9	5.3 [4.9 to 5.7]	6.4 [5.9 to 6.9]	+19.5
Women	12.9 [12.5 to 13.2]	9.5 [9.1 to 9.9]	−26.4	9.8 [9.4 to 10.2]	4.7 [4.3 to 5.0]	−52.5	3.1 [2.8 to 3.3]	4.8 [4.4 to 5.2]	+57.1
Occupational social grade
ABC1 (more advantaged)	12.3 [11.8 to 12.8]	9.8 [9.4 to 10.3]	−20.0	9.6 [9.1 to 10.1]	5.4 [5.0 to 5.8]	−43.7	2.7 [2.3 to 3.0]	4.4 [4.1 to 4.8]	+65.5
C2DE (less advantaged)	14.5 [14.1 to 14.9]	11.2 [10.8 to 11.7]	−22.5	9.4 [9.0 to 9.8]	4.8 [4.4 to 5.2]	−49.3	5.1 [4.8 to 5.5]	6.5 [6.1 to 7.0]	+27.3
Region in England
North	14.3 [13.8 to 14.8]	11.3 [10.7 to 11.9]	−20.9	10.3 [9.8 to 10.8]	5.7 [5.1 to 6.2]	−45.2	3.9 [3.5 to 4.4]	5.6 [5.0 to 6.2]	+42.9
Midlands	13.8 [13.3 to 14.4]	11.1 [10.5 to 11.8]	−19.6	9.2 [8.6 to 9.8]	4.9 [4.4 to 5.5]	−46.4	4.6 [4.1 to 5.1]	6.2 [5.6 to 6.8]	+34.3
South	12.8 [12.3 to 13.3]	9.9 [9.4 to 10.4]	−22.8	8.8 [8.3 to 9.3]	4.7 [4.3 to 5.1]	−46.8	4.0 [3.6 to 4.4]	5.2 [4.8 to 5.7]	+30.6
Current use of NRT
No	13.4 [13.1 to 13.7]	10.5 [10.1 to 10.8]	−22.0	9.2 [8.8 to 9.5]	5.0 [4.7 to 5.3]	−45.7	4.3 [4.0 to 4.5]	5.5 [5.2 to 5.8]	+29.2
Yes	14.6 [13.9 to 15.3]	12.0 [10.9 to 13.1]	−18.0	10.8 [10.0 to 11.6]	5.5 [4.7 to 6.3]	−49.3	3.8 [3.2 to 4.4]	6.6 [5.5 to 7.8]	+72.9

All cigarettes per day

Manufactured cigarettes per day

Hand-rolled cigarettes per day

Mean [95%CI]¹

% change²

Mean [95%CI]¹

% change²

Mean [95%CI]¹

% change²

Jan 2008

Sept 2023

Jan 2008

Sept 2023

Jan 2008

Sept 2023

All adult (≥18 years) smokers

13.6 [13.3 to 13.9]

10.6 [10.3 to 11.0]

−22.1

9.5 [9.2 to 9.8]

5.0 [4.7 to 5.3]

−47.0

4.2 [3.9 to 4.4]

5.6 [5.3 to 5.9]

+34.9

Main type of cigarettes smoked³

Manufactured

13.5 [13.1 to 13.8]

10.7 [10.2 to 11.2]

−20.7

13.2 [12.9 to 13.6]

10.5 [10.0 to 10.9]

−20.9

0.24 [0.19 to 0.28]

0.21 [0.16 to 0.27]

−9.5

Hand-rolled

14.1 [13.6 to 14.6]

10.6 [10.1 to 11.1]

−24.8

0.95 [0.80 to 1.1]

0.35 [0.25 to 0.44]

−63.5

13.1 [12.6 to 13.6]

10.3 [9.8 to 10.7]

−21.8

Frequency of smoking

Non-daily

4.9 [4.3 to 5.5]

3.1 [2.8 to 3.4]

−36.4

3.8 [3.3 to 4.4]

1.7 [1.5 to 2.0]

−54.3

1.1 [0.7 to 1.4]

1.4 [1.1 to 1.6]

+30.8

Daily

14.6 [14.3 to 14.9]

13.1 [12.7 to 13.4]

−10.7

10.1 [9.8 to 10.5]

6.1 [5.7 to 6.5]

−39.8

4.5 [4.2 to 4.8]

7.0 [6.6 to 7.4]

+54.3

Age (years)⁴

10.5 [9.8 to 11.2]

6.5 [5.7 to 7.3]

−37.9

7.9 [7.2 to 8.6]

1.9 [1.3 to 2.5]

−75.9

2.6 [2.0 to 3.1]

4.6 [3.9 to 5.3]

+79.7

12.0 [11.6 to 12.5]

8.1 [7.6 to 8.6]

−32.5

8.4 [8.0 to 8.9]

2.7 [2.4 to 3.1]

−67.4

3.6 [3.2 to 4.0]

5.3 [4.9 to 5.8]

+49.0

13.9 [13.6 to 14.3]

10.2 [9.8 to 10.6]

−26.8

9.2 [8.7 to 9.6]

4.0 [3.6 to 4.3]

−56.7

4.8 [4.5 to 5.1]

6.2 [5.8 to 6.6]

+29.5

15.0 [14.6 to 15.5]

11.7 [11.2 to 12.2]

−22.4

9.8 [9.3 to 10.3]

5.2 [4.7 to 5.7]

−47.1

5.2 [4.8 to 5.6]

6.4 [6.0 to 6.9]

+23.7

15.2 [14.8 to 15.6]

12.4 [12.0 to 12.9]

−18.1

10.5 [10.0 to 11.0]

6.5 [6.1 to 6.9]

−38.1

4.7 [4.3 to 5.1]

6.0 [5.5 to 6.4]

+26.6

14.8 [14.2 to 15.3]

12.8 [12.2 to 13.3]

−13.5

11.2 [10.6 to 11.7]

7.8 [7.3 to 8.4]

−29.9

3.6 [3.2 to 4.0]

5.0 [4.5 to 5.5]

+38.8

Gender

Men

14.4 [14.0 to 14.9]

11.5 [11.0 to 12.0]

−20.4

9.1 [8.7 to 9.6]

5.2 [4.8 to 5.7]

−42.9

5.3 [4.9 to 5.7]

6.4 [5.9 to 6.9]

+19.5

Women

12.9 [12.5 to 13.2]

9.5 [9.1 to 9.9]

−26.4

9.8 [9.4 to 10.2]

4.7 [4.3 to 5.0]

−52.5

3.1 [2.8 to 3.3]

4.8 [4.4 to 5.2]

+57.1

Occupational social grade

ABC1 (more advantaged)

12.3 [11.8 to 12.8]

9.8 [9.4 to 10.3]

−20.0

9.6 [9.1 to 10.1]

5.4 [5.0 to 5.8]

−43.7

2.7 [2.3 to 3.0]

4.4 [4.1 to 4.8]

+65.5

C2DE (less advantaged)

14.5 [14.1 to 14.9]

11.2 [10.8 to 11.7]

−22.5

9.4 [9.0 to 9.8]

4.8 [4.4 to 5.2]

−49.3

5.1 [4.8 to 5.5]

6.5 [6.1 to 7.0]

+27.3

Region in England

North

14.3 [13.8 to 14.8]

11.3 [10.7 to 11.9]

−20.9

10.3 [9.8 to 10.8]

5.7 [5.1 to 6.2]

−45.2

3.9 [3.5 to 4.4]

5.6 [5.0 to 6.2]

+42.9

Midlands

13.8 [13.3 to 14.4]

11.1 [10.5 to 11.8]

−19.6

9.2 [8.6 to 9.8]

4.9 [4.4 to 5.5]

−46.4

4.6 [4.1 to 5.1]

6.2 [5.6 to 6.8]

+34.3

South

12.8 [12.3 to 13.3]

9.9 [9.4 to 10.4]

−22.8

8.8 [8.3 to 9.3]

4.7 [4.3 to 5.1]

−46.8

4.0 [3.6 to 4.4]

5.2 [4.8 to 5.7]

+30.6

Current use of NRT

13.4 [13.1 to 13.7]

10.5 [10.1 to 10.8]

−22.0

9.2 [8.8 to 9.5]

5.0 [4.7 to 5.3]

−45.7

4.3 [4.0 to 4.5]

5.5 [5.2 to 5.8]

+29.2

Yes

14.6 [13.9 to 15.3]

12.0 [10.9 to 13.1]

−18.0

10.8 [10.0 to 11.6]

5.5 [4.7 to 6.3]

−49.3

3.8 [3.2 to 4.4]

6.6 [5.5 to 7.8]

+72.9

	Mean [95%CI]¹	% change²	Mean [95%CI]¹	% change²	Mean [95%CI]¹	% change²
Current vaping⁵
No	12.5 [12.1 to 12.8]	11.2 [10.7 to 11.6]	−10.3	7.7 [7.4 to 8.1]	5.5 [5.1 to 5.9]	−29.3	4.7 [4.4 to 5.0]	5.7 [5.3 to 6.1]	+21.8
Yes	14.3 [12.5 to 16.0]	9.7 [9.1 to 10.4]	−31.8	11.7 [9.8 to 13.5]	4.3 [3.7 to 4.9]	−63.3	2.5 [1.2 to 3.8]	5.5 [4.9 to 6.2]	+118.6
Non-daily	15.0 [12.6 to 17.5]	12.7 [10.3 to 15.0]	−15.5	11.6 [8.9 to 14.3]	5.7 [3.5 to 8.0]	−50.4	3.3 [1.4 to 5.2]	7.0 [4.5 to 9.6]	+115.4
Daily	13.4 [11.8 to 15.0]	9.3 [7.9 to 10.6]	−30.9	10.9 [9.2 to 12.6]	4.0 [2.9 to 5.2]	−62.9	2.5 [1.2 to 3.8]	5.2 [4.0 to 6.5]	+108.0

Mean [95%CI]¹

% change²

Mean [95%CI]¹

% change²

Mean [95%CI]¹

% change²

Apr 2011

Sept 2023

Apr 2011

Sept 2023

Apr 2011

Sept 2023

Current vaping⁵

12.5 [12.1 to 12.8]

11.2 [10.7 to 11.6]

−10.3

7.7 [7.4 to 8.1]

5.5 [5.1 to 5.9]

−29.3

4.7 [4.4 to 5.0]

5.7 [5.3 to 6.1]

+21.8

Yes

14.3 [12.5 to 16.0]

9.7 [9.1 to 10.4]

−31.8

11.7 [9.8 to 13.5]

4.3 [3.7 to 4.9]

−63.3

2.5 [1.2 to 3.8]

5.5 [4.9 to 6.2]

+118.6

Non-daily

15.0 [12.6 to 17.5]

12.7 [10.3 to 15.0]

−15.5

11.6 [8.9 to 14.3]

5.7 [3.5 to 8.0]

−50.4

3.3 [1.4 to 5.2]

7.0 [4.5 to 9.6]

+115.4

Daily

13.4 [11.8 to 15.0]

9.3 [7.9 to 10.6]

−30.9

10.9 [9.2 to 12.6]

4.0 [2.9 to 5.2]

−62.9

2.5 [1.2 to 3.8]

5.2 [4.0 to 6.5]

+108.0

	Mean [95%CI]¹	% change²	Mean [95%CI]¹	% change²	Mean [95%CI]¹	% change²
Current vaping⁵
No	12.5 [12.1 to 12.8]	11.2 [10.7 to 11.6]	−10.3	7.7 [7.4 to 8.1]	5.5 [5.1 to 5.9]	−29.3	4.7 [4.4 to 5.0]	5.7 [5.3 to 6.1]	+21.8
Yes	14.3 [12.5 to 16.0]	9.7 [9.1 to 10.4]	−31.8	11.7 [9.8 to 13.5]	4.3 [3.7 to 4.9]	−63.3	2.5 [1.2 to 3.8]	5.5 [4.9 to 6.2]	+118.6
Non-daily	15.0 [12.6 to 17.5]	12.7 [10.3 to 15.0]	−15.5	11.6 [8.9 to 14.3]	5.7 [3.5 to 8.0]	−50.4	3.3 [1.4 to 5.2]	7.0 [4.5 to 9.6]	+115.4
Daily	13.4 [11.8 to 15.0]	9.3 [7.9 to 10.6]	−30.9	10.9 [9.2 to 12.6]	4.0 [2.9 to 5.2]	−62.9	2.5 [1.2 to 3.8]	5.2 [4.0 to 6.5]	+108.0

Table 1.

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Modeled Estimates of the Change in Daily Cigarette Consumption Among Adult Smokers (≥18 Years) in England From January 2008 to September 2023

	All cigarettes per day			Manufactured cigarettes per day			Hand-rolled cigarettes per day
	Mean [95%CI]¹		% change²	Mean [95%CI]¹		% change²	Mean [95%CI]¹		% change²
	Jan 2008	Sept 2023	% change²	Jan 2008	Sept 2023	% change²	Jan 2008	Sept 2023	% change²
All adult (≥18 years) smokers	13.6 [13.3 to 13.9]	10.6 [10.3 to 11.0]	−22.1	9.5 [9.2 to 9.8]	5.0 [4.7 to 5.3]	−47.0	4.2 [3.9 to 4.4]	5.6 [5.3 to 5.9]	+34.9
Main type of cigarettes smoked³
Manufactured	13.5 [13.1 to 13.8]	10.7 [10.2 to 11.2]	−20.7	13.2 [12.9 to 13.6]	10.5 [10.0 to 10.9]	−20.9	0.24 [0.19 to 0.28]	0.21 [0.16 to 0.27]	−9.5
Hand-rolled	14.1 [13.6 to 14.6]	10.6 [10.1 to 11.1]	−24.8	0.95 [0.80 to 1.1]	0.35 [0.25 to 0.44]	−63.5	13.1 [12.6 to 13.6]	10.3 [9.8 to 10.7]	−21.8
Frequency of smoking
Non-daily	4.9 [4.3 to 5.5]	3.1 [2.8 to 3.4]	−36.4	3.8 [3.3 to 4.4]	1.7 [1.5 to 2.0]	−54.3	1.1 [0.7 to 1.4]	1.4 [1.1 to 1.6]	+30.8
Daily	14.6 [14.3 to 14.9]	13.1 [12.7 to 13.4]	−10.7	10.1 [9.8 to 10.5]	6.1 [5.7 to 6.5]	−39.8	4.5 [4.2 to 4.8]	7.0 [6.6 to 7.4]	+54.3
Age (years)⁴
18	10.5 [9.8 to 11.2]	6.5 [5.7 to 7.3]	−37.9	7.9 [7.2 to 8.6]	1.9 [1.3 to 2.5]	−75.9	2.6 [2.0 to 3.1]	4.6 [3.9 to 5.3]	+79.7
25	12.0 [11.6 to 12.5]	8.1 [7.6 to 8.6]	−32.5	8.4 [8.0 to 8.9]	2.7 [2.4 to 3.1]	−67.4	3.6 [3.2 to 4.0]	5.3 [4.9 to 5.8]	+49.0
35	13.9 [13.6 to 14.3]	10.2 [9.8 to 10.6]	−26.8	9.2 [8.7 to 9.6]	4.0 [3.6 to 4.3]	−56.7	4.8 [4.5 to 5.1]	6.2 [5.8 to 6.6]	+29.5
45	15.0 [14.6 to 15.5]	11.7 [11.2 to 12.2]	−22.4	9.8 [9.3 to 10.3]	5.2 [4.7 to 5.7]	−47.1	5.2 [4.8 to 5.6]	6.4 [6.0 to 6.9]	+23.7
55	15.2 [14.8 to 15.6]	12.4 [12.0 to 12.9]	−18.1	10.5 [10.0 to 11.0]	6.5 [6.1 to 6.9]	−38.1	4.7 [4.3 to 5.1]	6.0 [5.5 to 6.4]	+26.6
65	14.8 [14.2 to 15.3]	12.8 [12.2 to 13.3]	−13.5	11.2 [10.6 to 11.7]	7.8 [7.3 to 8.4]	−29.9	3.6 [3.2 to 4.0]	5.0 [4.5 to 5.5]	+38.8
Gender
Men	14.4 [14.0 to 14.9]	11.5 [11.0 to 12.0]	−20.4	9.1 [8.7 to 9.6]	5.2 [4.8 to 5.7]	−42.9	5.3 [4.9 to 5.7]	6.4 [5.9 to 6.9]	+19.5
Women	12.9 [12.5 to 13.2]	9.5 [9.1 to 9.9]	−26.4	9.8 [9.4 to 10.2]	4.7 [4.3 to 5.0]	−52.5	3.1 [2.8 to 3.3]	4.8 [4.4 to 5.2]	+57.1
Occupational social grade
ABC1 (more advantaged)	12.3 [11.8 to 12.8]	9.8 [9.4 to 10.3]	−20.0	9.6 [9.1 to 10.1]	5.4 [5.0 to 5.8]	−43.7	2.7 [2.3 to 3.0]	4.4 [4.1 to 4.8]	+65.5
C2DE (less advantaged)	14.5 [14.1 to 14.9]	11.2 [10.8 to 11.7]	−22.5	9.4 [9.0 to 9.8]	4.8 [4.4 to 5.2]	−49.3	5.1 [4.8 to 5.5]	6.5 [6.1 to 7.0]	+27.3
Region in England
North	14.3 [13.8 to 14.8]	11.3 [10.7 to 11.9]	−20.9	10.3 [9.8 to 10.8]	5.7 [5.1 to 6.2]	−45.2	3.9 [3.5 to 4.4]	5.6 [5.0 to 6.2]	+42.9
Midlands	13.8 [13.3 to 14.4]	11.1 [10.5 to 11.8]	−19.6	9.2 [8.6 to 9.8]	4.9 [4.4 to 5.5]	−46.4	4.6 [4.1 to 5.1]	6.2 [5.6 to 6.8]	+34.3
South	12.8 [12.3 to 13.3]	9.9 [9.4 to 10.4]	−22.8	8.8 [8.3 to 9.3]	4.7 [4.3 to 5.1]	−46.8	4.0 [3.6 to 4.4]	5.2 [4.8 to 5.7]	+30.6
Current use of NRT
No	13.4 [13.1 to 13.7]	10.5 [10.1 to 10.8]	−22.0	9.2 [8.8 to 9.5]	5.0 [4.7 to 5.3]	−45.7	4.3 [4.0 to 4.5]	5.5 [5.2 to 5.8]	+29.2
Yes	14.6 [13.9 to 15.3]	12.0 [10.9 to 13.1]	−18.0	10.8 [10.0 to 11.6]	5.5 [4.7 to 6.3]	−49.3	3.8 [3.2 to 4.4]	6.6 [5.5 to 7.8]	+72.9

	All cigarettes per day			Manufactured cigarettes per day			Hand-rolled cigarettes per day
	Mean [95%CI]¹		% change²	Mean [95%CI]¹		% change²	Mean [95%CI]¹		% change²
	Jan 2008	Sept 2023	% change²	Jan 2008	Sept 2023	% change²	Jan 2008	Sept 2023	% change²
All adult (≥18 years) smokers	13.6 [13.3 to 13.9]	10.6 [10.3 to 11.0]	−22.1	9.5 [9.2 to 9.8]	5.0 [4.7 to 5.3]	−47.0	4.2 [3.9 to 4.4]	5.6 [5.3 to 5.9]	+34.9
Main type of cigarettes smoked³
Manufactured	13.5 [13.1 to 13.8]	10.7 [10.2 to 11.2]	−20.7	13.2 [12.9 to 13.6]	10.5 [10.0 to 10.9]	−20.9	0.24 [0.19 to 0.28]	0.21 [0.16 to 0.27]	−9.5
Hand-rolled	14.1 [13.6 to 14.6]	10.6 [10.1 to 11.1]	−24.8	0.95 [0.80 to 1.1]	0.35 [0.25 to 0.44]	−63.5	13.1 [12.6 to 13.6]	10.3 [9.8 to 10.7]	−21.8
Frequency of smoking
Non-daily	4.9 [4.3 to 5.5]	3.1 [2.8 to 3.4]	−36.4	3.8 [3.3 to 4.4]	1.7 [1.5 to 2.0]	−54.3	1.1 [0.7 to 1.4]	1.4 [1.1 to 1.6]	+30.8
Daily	14.6 [14.3 to 14.9]	13.1 [12.7 to 13.4]	−10.7	10.1 [9.8 to 10.5]	6.1 [5.7 to 6.5]	−39.8	4.5 [4.2 to 4.8]	7.0 [6.6 to 7.4]	+54.3
Age (years)⁴
18	10.5 [9.8 to 11.2]	6.5 [5.7 to 7.3]	−37.9	7.9 [7.2 to 8.6]	1.9 [1.3 to 2.5]	−75.9	2.6 [2.0 to 3.1]	4.6 [3.9 to 5.3]	+79.7
25	12.0 [11.6 to 12.5]	8.1 [7.6 to 8.6]	−32.5	8.4 [8.0 to 8.9]	2.7 [2.4 to 3.1]	−67.4	3.6 [3.2 to 4.0]	5.3 [4.9 to 5.8]	+49.0
35	13.9 [13.6 to 14.3]	10.2 [9.8 to 10.6]	−26.8	9.2 [8.7 to 9.6]	4.0 [3.6 to 4.3]	−56.7	4.8 [4.5 to 5.1]	6.2 [5.8 to 6.6]	+29.5
45	15.0 [14.6 to 15.5]	11.7 [11.2 to 12.2]	−22.4	9.8 [9.3 to 10.3]	5.2 [4.7 to 5.7]	−47.1	5.2 [4.8 to 5.6]	6.4 [6.0 to 6.9]	+23.7
55	15.2 [14.8 to 15.6]	12.4 [12.0 to 12.9]	−18.1	10.5 [10.0 to 11.0]	6.5 [6.1 to 6.9]	−38.1	4.7 [4.3 to 5.1]	6.0 [5.5 to 6.4]	+26.6
65	14.8 [14.2 to 15.3]	12.8 [12.2 to 13.3]	−13.5	11.2 [10.6 to 11.7]	7.8 [7.3 to 8.4]	−29.9	3.6 [3.2 to 4.0]	5.0 [4.5 to 5.5]	+38.8
Gender
Men	14.4 [14.0 to 14.9]	11.5 [11.0 to 12.0]	−20.4	9.1 [8.7 to 9.6]	5.2 [4.8 to 5.7]	−42.9	5.3 [4.9 to 5.7]	6.4 [5.9 to 6.9]	+19.5
Women	12.9 [12.5 to 13.2]	9.5 [9.1 to 9.9]	−26.4	9.8 [9.4 to 10.2]	4.7 [4.3 to 5.0]	−52.5	3.1 [2.8 to 3.3]	4.8 [4.4 to 5.2]	+57.1
Occupational social grade
ABC1 (more advantaged)	12.3 [11.8 to 12.8]	9.8 [9.4 to 10.3]	−20.0	9.6 [9.1 to 10.1]	5.4 [5.0 to 5.8]	−43.7	2.7 [2.3 to 3.0]	4.4 [4.1 to 4.8]	+65.5
C2DE (less advantaged)	14.5 [14.1 to 14.9]	11.2 [10.8 to 11.7]	−22.5	9.4 [9.0 to 9.8]	4.8 [4.4 to 5.2]	−49.3	5.1 [4.8 to 5.5]	6.5 [6.1 to 7.0]	+27.3
Region in England
North	14.3 [13.8 to 14.8]	11.3 [10.7 to 11.9]	−20.9	10.3 [9.8 to 10.8]	5.7 [5.1 to 6.2]	−45.2	3.9 [3.5 to 4.4]	5.6 [5.0 to 6.2]	+42.9
Midlands	13.8 [13.3 to 14.4]	11.1 [10.5 to 11.8]	−19.6	9.2 [8.6 to 9.8]	4.9 [4.4 to 5.5]	−46.4	4.6 [4.1 to 5.1]	6.2 [5.6 to 6.8]	+34.3
South	12.8 [12.3 to 13.3]	9.9 [9.4 to 10.4]	−22.8	8.8 [8.3 to 9.3]	4.7 [4.3 to 5.1]	−46.8	4.0 [3.6 to 4.4]	5.2 [4.8 to 5.7]	+30.6
Current use of NRT
No	13.4 [13.1 to 13.7]	10.5 [10.1 to 10.8]	−22.0	9.2 [8.8 to 9.5]	5.0 [4.7 to 5.3]	−45.7	4.3 [4.0 to 4.5]	5.5 [5.2 to 5.8]	+29.2
Yes	14.6 [13.9 to 15.3]	12.0 [10.9 to 13.1]	−18.0	10.8 [10.0 to 11.6]	5.5 [4.7 to 6.3]	−49.3	3.8 [3.2 to 4.4]	6.6 [5.5 to 7.8]	+72.9

	Mean [95%CI]¹		% change²	Mean [95%CI]¹		% change²	Mean [95%CI]¹		% change²
	Apr 2011	Sept 2023	% change²	Apr 2011	Sept 2023	% change²	Apr 2011	Sept 2023	% change²
Current vaping⁵
No	12.5 [12.1 to 12.8]	11.2 [10.7 to 11.6]	−10.3	7.7 [7.4 to 8.1]	5.5 [5.1 to 5.9]	−29.3	4.7 [4.4 to 5.0]	5.7 [5.3 to 6.1]	+21.8
Yes	14.3 [12.5 to 16.0]	9.7 [9.1 to 10.4]	−31.8	11.7 [9.8 to 13.5]	4.3 [3.7 to 4.9]	−63.3	2.5 [1.2 to 3.8]	5.5 [4.9 to 6.2]	+118.6
Non-daily	15.0 [12.6 to 17.5]	12.7 [10.3 to 15.0]	−15.5	11.6 [8.9 to 14.3]	5.7 [3.5 to 8.0]	−50.4	3.3 [1.4 to 5.2]	7.0 [4.5 to 9.6]	+115.4
Daily	13.4 [11.8 to 15.0]	9.3 [7.9 to 10.6]	−30.9	10.9 [9.2 to 12.6]	4.0 [2.9 to 5.2]	−62.9	2.5 [1.2 to 3.8]	5.2 [4.0 to 6.5]	+108.0

	Mean [95%CI]¹		% change²	Mean [95%CI]¹		% change²	Mean [95%CI]¹		% change²
	Apr 2011	Sept 2023	% change²	Apr 2011	Sept 2023	% change²	Apr 2011	Sept 2023	% change²
Current vaping⁵
No	12.5 [12.1 to 12.8]	11.2 [10.7 to 11.6]	−10.3	7.7 [7.4 to 8.1]	5.5 [5.1 to 5.9]	−29.3	4.7 [4.4 to 5.0]	5.7 [5.3 to 6.1]	+21.8
Yes	14.3 [12.5 to 16.0]	9.7 [9.1 to 10.4]	−31.8	11.7 [9.8 to 13.5]	4.3 [3.7 to 4.9]	−63.3	2.5 [1.2 to 3.8]	5.5 [4.9 to 6.2]	+118.6
Non-daily	15.0 [12.6 to 17.5]	12.7 [10.3 to 15.0]	−15.5	11.6 [8.9 to 14.3]	5.7 [3.5 to 8.0]	−50.4	3.3 [1.4 to 5.2]	7.0 [4.5 to 9.6]	+115.4
Daily	13.4 [11.8 to 15.0]	9.3 [7.9 to 10.6]	−30.9	10.9 [9.2 to 12.6]	4.0 [2.9 to 5.2]	−62.9	2.5 [1.2 to 3.8]	5.2 [4.0 to 6.5]	+108.0

1Data for January 2008 and September 2023 are weighted estimates in these months (the first and last in the study period) from linear regression with survey month modeled nonlinearly using restricted cubic splines (five knots). Interactions between survey month and each characteristic of interest were modeled separately to derive estimates within subgroups of smokers. Note that these estimates were derived from models incorporating information from all survey waves, not just participants surveyed in these months. Estimates are unadjusted.

²Percentage change between January 2008 and September 2023.

³Includes those mainly or exclusively smoking manufactured or hand-rolled cigarettes (defined as ≥50% of total cigarettes being manufactured or hand-rolled).

⁴ Note that the model used to derive these estimates included data from participants of all ages, not only those who were aged exactly 18, 25, 35, 45, 55, or 65 years.

⁵Vaping status has only been assessed since April 2011, so data are for April 2011 and September 2023, and the percentage change reflects the change between April 2011 and September 2023. Unmodelled estimates of mean daily cigarette consumption within each survey year are provided in Tables S2-4.

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