Input values for demographic parameters used in marbled murrelet simulation models.
| Model parameters . | Estimate . | Source . |
|---|---|---|
| 1st year survival (s₁) | 0.51 (0.07) | Parker et al. (2003) |
| Temporal variability in s₁ | 0.1 | Peery and Henry (2010) |
| 2nd + year survival (s₂) | 0.933 (0.05)a | Cam et al. (2003) |
| Temporal variability in 2nd + year survival (s₂) | 0.01b | |
| Productivity (f) | 0.21 (0.03)c | Bradley et al. (2004), Gutowsky et al. (2009) |
| Temporal variability in f | 0.15 | Bradley et al. (2004) |
| Age at first breeding | 2 | Nelson (2020) |
| Breeding propensity (bp) | 0.5 | McFarlane Tranqullia et al. (2003) |
| Population size | 99 100d | ECCC (2023) |
| Average annual gillnet entanglement mortality | 228e | Bertram et al. (2021) |
| Derived parameters | ||
| Initial population size: 1st year (N₁) | 5 116f | |
| Initial population size: 2nd + year (N2+) | 93 984f | |
| Model parameters . | Estimate . | Source . |
|---|---|---|
| 1st year survival (s₁) | 0.51 (0.07) | Parker et al. (2003) |
| Temporal variability in s₁ | 0.1 | Peery and Henry (2010) |
| 2nd + year survival (s₂) | 0.933 (0.05)a | Cam et al. (2003) |
| Temporal variability in 2nd + year survival (s₂) | 0.01b | |
| Productivity (f) | 0.21 (0.03)c | Bradley et al. (2004), Gutowsky et al. (2009) |
| Temporal variability in f | 0.15 | Bradley et al. (2004) |
| Age at first breeding | 2 | Nelson (2020) |
| Breeding propensity (bp) | 0.5 | McFarlane Tranqullia et al. (2003) |
| Population size | 99 100d | ECCC (2023) |
| Average annual gillnet entanglement mortality | 228e | Bertram et al. (2021) |
| Derived parameters | ||
| Initial population size: 1st year (N₁) | 5 116f | |
| Initial population size: 2nd + year (N2+) | 93 984f | |
Specific details regarding the derivation and use of model parameters can be found in the “Methods” section. Uncertainty in demographic parameter estimates, where available, is reported as standard error.
Uncertainty in estimates reported as SE and temporal variability reported as SD.
Mean survival rate estimate increased to produce stable population.
Determined using expert opinion based on estimates from other murrelets.
Female fledglings per breeding female.
Total individuals; 2006 estimate.
Number of individuals.
Calculated as stable age distribution based on population size.
Input values for demographic parameters used in marbled murrelet simulation models.
| Model parameters . | Estimate . | Source . |
|---|---|---|
| 1st year survival (s₁) | 0.51 (0.07) | Parker et al. (2003) |
| Temporal variability in s₁ | 0.1 | Peery and Henry (2010) |
| 2nd + year survival (s₂) | 0.933 (0.05)a | Cam et al. (2003) |
| Temporal variability in 2nd + year survival (s₂) | 0.01b | |
| Productivity (f) | 0.21 (0.03)c | Bradley et al. (2004), Gutowsky et al. (2009) |
| Temporal variability in f | 0.15 | Bradley et al. (2004) |
| Age at first breeding | 2 | Nelson (2020) |
| Breeding propensity (bp) | 0.5 | McFarlane Tranqullia et al. (2003) |
| Population size | 99 100d | ECCC (2023) |
| Average annual gillnet entanglement mortality | 228e | Bertram et al. (2021) |
| Derived parameters | ||
| Initial population size: 1st year (N₁) | 5 116f | |
| Initial population size: 2nd + year (N2+) | 93 984f | |
| Model parameters . | Estimate . | Source . |
|---|---|---|
| 1st year survival (s₁) | 0.51 (0.07) | Parker et al. (2003) |
| Temporal variability in s₁ | 0.1 | Peery and Henry (2010) |
| 2nd + year survival (s₂) | 0.933 (0.05)a | Cam et al. (2003) |
| Temporal variability in 2nd + year survival (s₂) | 0.01b | |
| Productivity (f) | 0.21 (0.03)c | Bradley et al. (2004), Gutowsky et al. (2009) |
| Temporal variability in f | 0.15 | Bradley et al. (2004) |
| Age at first breeding | 2 | Nelson (2020) |
| Breeding propensity (bp) | 0.5 | McFarlane Tranqullia et al. (2003) |
| Population size | 99 100d | ECCC (2023) |
| Average annual gillnet entanglement mortality | 228e | Bertram et al. (2021) |
| Derived parameters | ||
| Initial population size: 1st year (N₁) | 5 116f | |
| Initial population size: 2nd + year (N2+) | 93 984f | |
Specific details regarding the derivation and use of model parameters can be found in the “Methods” section. Uncertainty in demographic parameter estimates, where available, is reported as standard error.
Uncertainty in estimates reported as SE and temporal variability reported as SD.
Mean survival rate estimate increased to produce stable population.
Determined using expert opinion based on estimates from other murrelets.
Female fledglings per breeding female.
Total individuals; 2006 estimate.
Number of individuals.
Calculated as stable age distribution based on population size.
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