Net Changes in TB Outcomes Associated With the COVID-19 Pandemic in Selected Calendar Years, Stratified by Nativity
| . | Calendar Year . | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| . | 2020 . | 2021 . | 2022 . | 2023 . | 2025 . | 2035 . |
| TB notifications | ||||||
| Total | −1551 (−1,622, −1493) | −760 (−832, −691) | −189 (−227, −148) | 1228 (1,151, 1332) | 593 (542, 652) | 122 (106, −139) |
| US-born | −410 (−427, −392) | −251 (−276, −226) | −196 (−215, −174) | 228 (205, 252) | 282 (252, 311) | 28 (23, 31) |
| Non-US–born | −1141 (−1,244, −1077) | −509 (−573, −453) | 7 (−44, 52) | 1000 (935, 1093) | 311 (282, 349) | 94 (83, −107) |
| Incident Mtb infections | ||||||
| Total | −14 769 (−15,957, −13 672) | −6733 (−7,365, −6105) | 228 (59, 421) | 14 683 (13,437, 16,125) | 2513 (2,191, 2917) | 368 (307, 448) |
| US-born | −9075 (−9,729, −8492) | −3708 (−4,028, −3421) | 652 (561, 763) | 10 435 (9,650, 11,373) | 1173 (1,041, 1354) | 161 (127, 199) |
| Non-US–born | −5694 (−6,228, −5108) | −3025 (−3,338, −2685) | −424 (−502, −342) | 4248 (3,787, 4752) | 1340 (1,150, 1563) | 207 (180, 249) |
| TB deaths | ||||||
| Total | 169 (163, 174) | 215 (207, 222) | 143 (136, 149) | 263 (252 277) | 47 (43, 52) | 14 (13, 15) |
| US-born | 43 (41, 45) | 49 (46, 52) | 25 (23, 27) | 52 (50, 55) | 17 (15, 19) | 2 (2, 2) |
| Non-U.S.–born | 126 (122, 129) | 166 (161, 170) | 118 (113, 122) | 211 (202, 222) | 30 (28, 33) | 12 (11, 13) |
| . | Calendar Year . | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| . | 2020 . | 2021 . | 2022 . | 2023 . | 2025 . | 2035 . |
| TB notifications | ||||||
| Total | −1551 (−1,622, −1493) | −760 (−832, −691) | −189 (−227, −148) | 1228 (1,151, 1332) | 593 (542, 652) | 122 (106, −139) |
| US-born | −410 (−427, −392) | −251 (−276, −226) | −196 (−215, −174) | 228 (205, 252) | 282 (252, 311) | 28 (23, 31) |
| Non-US–born | −1141 (−1,244, −1077) | −509 (−573, −453) | 7 (−44, 52) | 1000 (935, 1093) | 311 (282, 349) | 94 (83, −107) |
| Incident Mtb infections | ||||||
| Total | −14 769 (−15,957, −13 672) | −6733 (−7,365, −6105) | 228 (59, 421) | 14 683 (13,437, 16,125) | 2513 (2,191, 2917) | 368 (307, 448) |
| US-born | −9075 (−9,729, −8492) | −3708 (−4,028, −3421) | 652 (561, 763) | 10 435 (9,650, 11,373) | 1173 (1,041, 1354) | 161 (127, 199) |
| Non-US–born | −5694 (−6,228, −5108) | −3025 (−3,338, −2685) | −424 (−502, −342) | 4248 (3,787, 4752) | 1340 (1,150, 1563) | 207 (180, 249) |
| TB deaths | ||||||
| Total | 169 (163, 174) | 215 (207, 222) | 143 (136, 149) | 263 (252 277) | 47 (43, 52) | 14 (13, 15) |
| US-born | 43 (41, 45) | 49 (46, 52) | 25 (23, 27) | 52 (50, 55) | 17 (15, 19) | 2 (2, 2) |
| Non-U.S.–born | 126 (122, 129) | 166 (161, 170) | 118 (113, 122) | 211 (202, 222) | 30 (28, 33) | 12 (11, 13) |
Numbers in parentheses represent 95% uncertainty intervals. A negative number represents lower TB outcomes estimated for the fitted-pandemic scenario compared to the no-pandemic-counterfactual.
Abbreviations: COVID-19, coronavirus disease 2019; Mtb, Mycobacterium tuberculosis; TB, tuberculosis.
Net Changes in TB Outcomes Associated With the COVID-19 Pandemic in Selected Calendar Years, Stratified by Nativity
| . | Calendar Year . | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| . | 2020 . | 2021 . | 2022 . | 2023 . | 2025 . | 2035 . |
| TB notifications | ||||||
| Total | −1551 (−1,622, −1493) | −760 (−832, −691) | −189 (−227, −148) | 1228 (1,151, 1332) | 593 (542, 652) | 122 (106, −139) |
| US-born | −410 (−427, −392) | −251 (−276, −226) | −196 (−215, −174) | 228 (205, 252) | 282 (252, 311) | 28 (23, 31) |
| Non-US–born | −1141 (−1,244, −1077) | −509 (−573, −453) | 7 (−44, 52) | 1000 (935, 1093) | 311 (282, 349) | 94 (83, −107) |
| Incident Mtb infections | ||||||
| Total | −14 769 (−15,957, −13 672) | −6733 (−7,365, −6105) | 228 (59, 421) | 14 683 (13,437, 16,125) | 2513 (2,191, 2917) | 368 (307, 448) |
| US-born | −9075 (−9,729, −8492) | −3708 (−4,028, −3421) | 652 (561, 763) | 10 435 (9,650, 11,373) | 1173 (1,041, 1354) | 161 (127, 199) |
| Non-US–born | −5694 (−6,228, −5108) | −3025 (−3,338, −2685) | −424 (−502, −342) | 4248 (3,787, 4752) | 1340 (1,150, 1563) | 207 (180, 249) |
| TB deaths | ||||||
| Total | 169 (163, 174) | 215 (207, 222) | 143 (136, 149) | 263 (252 277) | 47 (43, 52) | 14 (13, 15) |
| US-born | 43 (41, 45) | 49 (46, 52) | 25 (23, 27) | 52 (50, 55) | 17 (15, 19) | 2 (2, 2) |
| Non-U.S.–born | 126 (122, 129) | 166 (161, 170) | 118 (113, 122) | 211 (202, 222) | 30 (28, 33) | 12 (11, 13) |
| . | Calendar Year . | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| . | 2020 . | 2021 . | 2022 . | 2023 . | 2025 . | 2035 . |
| TB notifications | ||||||
| Total | −1551 (−1,622, −1493) | −760 (−832, −691) | −189 (−227, −148) | 1228 (1,151, 1332) | 593 (542, 652) | 122 (106, −139) |
| US-born | −410 (−427, −392) | −251 (−276, −226) | −196 (−215, −174) | 228 (205, 252) | 282 (252, 311) | 28 (23, 31) |
| Non-US–born | −1141 (−1,244, −1077) | −509 (−573, −453) | 7 (−44, 52) | 1000 (935, 1093) | 311 (282, 349) | 94 (83, −107) |
| Incident Mtb infections | ||||||
| Total | −14 769 (−15,957, −13 672) | −6733 (−7,365, −6105) | 228 (59, 421) | 14 683 (13,437, 16,125) | 2513 (2,191, 2917) | 368 (307, 448) |
| US-born | −9075 (−9,729, −8492) | −3708 (−4,028, −3421) | 652 (561, 763) | 10 435 (9,650, 11,373) | 1173 (1,041, 1354) | 161 (127, 199) |
| Non-US–born | −5694 (−6,228, −5108) | −3025 (−3,338, −2685) | −424 (−502, −342) | 4248 (3,787, 4752) | 1340 (1,150, 1563) | 207 (180, 249) |
| TB deaths | ||||||
| Total | 169 (163, 174) | 215 (207, 222) | 143 (136, 149) | 263 (252 277) | 47 (43, 52) | 14 (13, 15) |
| US-born | 43 (41, 45) | 49 (46, 52) | 25 (23, 27) | 52 (50, 55) | 17 (15, 19) | 2 (2, 2) |
| Non-U.S.–born | 126 (122, 129) | 166 (161, 170) | 118 (113, 122) | 211 (202, 222) | 30 (28, 33) | 12 (11, 13) |
Numbers in parentheses represent 95% uncertainty intervals. A negative number represents lower TB outcomes estimated for the fitted-pandemic scenario compared to the no-pandemic-counterfactual.
Abbreviations: COVID-19, coronavirus disease 2019; Mtb, Mycobacterium tuberculosis; TB, tuberculosis.
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