Table 1 Open in new tab National FTE...

Scenario

2022

2027

2032

2037

FTE supply (baseline)

233,890

239,290

254,880

273,070

Growth from 2022

–

5400

20,990

39,170

FTE supply (later exits)

233,890

246,060

262,860

281,260

Growth from 2022

–

12,170

28,970

47,370

FTE supply (earlier exits)

233,890

231,930

246,800

264,760

Growth from 2022

–

−1960

12,910

30,870

FTE supply (more entrants)

233,890

245,250

266,330

289,520

Growth from 2022

–

11,360

32,430

55,620

FTE supply (fewer entrants)

233,890

233,360

243,450

256,610

Growth from 2022

–

−540

9560

22,720

FTE demand (baseline)

245,960

258,990

271,520

282,210

Growth from 2022

–

13,030

25,560

36,250

FTE demand (reduced barriers)

272,990

288,030

302,630

315,380

Growth from 2022 baseline

27,030

42,070

56,670

69,420

Baseline scenario

Supply–demand

−12,070

−19,700

−16,640

−9120

% Gap

−5.2%

−8.2%

−6.5%

−3.3%

Later exits scenario

Supply–demand

−12,070

−12,930

−8660

−950

% Gap

−5.2%

−5.3%

−3.3%

−0.3%

Earlier exits scenario

Supply–demand

−12,070

−27,060

−24,720

−17,450

% Gap

−5.2%

−11.7%

−10.0%

−6.6%

More graduates scenario

Supply–demand

−12,070

−13,740

−5190

7310

% Gap

−5.2%

−5.6%

−1.9%

2.5%

Fewer graduates scenario

Supply–demand

−12,070

−25,630

−28,070

−25,600

% Gap

−5.2%

−11.0%

−11.5%

−10.0%

Reduced barriers scenario

Supply–demand

−39,100

−48,740

−47,750

−42,310

% Gap

−16.7%

−20.4%

−18.7%

−15.5%

Table 1

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National FTE Supply and Demand Forecast Scenarios for Physical Therapists, 2022–2037^a

Scenario	2022	2027	2032	2037
FTE supply (baseline)	233,890	239,290	254,880	273,070
Growth from 2022	–	5400	20,990	39,170
FTE supply (later exits)	233,890	246,060	262,860	281,260
Growth from 2022	–	12,170	28,970	47,370
FTE supply (earlier exits)	233,890	231,930	246,800	264,760
Growth from 2022	–	−1960	12,910	30,870
FTE supply (more entrants)	233,890	245,250	266,330	289,520
Growth from 2022	–	11,360	32,430	55,620
FTE supply (fewer entrants)	233,890	233,360	243,450	256,610
Growth from 2022	–	−540	9560	22,720
FTE demand (baseline)	245,960	258,990	271,520	282,210
Growth from 2022	–	13,030	25,560	36,250
FTE demand (reduced barriers)	272,990	288,030	302,630	315,380
Growth from 2022 baseline	27,030	42,070	56,670	69,420
Baseline scenario
Supply–demand	−12,070	−19,700	−16,640	−9120
% Gap	−5.2%	−8.2%	−6.5%	−3.3%
Later exits scenario
Supply–demand	−12,070	−12,930	−8660	−950
% Gap	−5.2%	−5.3%	−3.3%	−0.3%
Earlier exits scenario
Supply–demand	−12,070	−27,060	−24,720	−17,450
% Gap	−5.2%	−11.7%	−10.0%	−6.6%
More graduates scenario
Supply–demand	−12,070	−13,740	−5190	7310
% Gap	−5.2%	−5.6%	−1.9%	2.5%
Fewer graduates scenario
Supply–demand	−12,070	−25,630	−28,070	−25,600
% Gap	−5.2%	−11.0%	−11.5%	−10.0%
Reduced barriers scenario
Supply–demand	−39,100	−48,740	−47,750	−42,310
% Gap	−16.7%	−20.4%	−18.7%	−15.5%

Scenario	2022	2027	2032	2037
FTE supply (baseline)	233,890	239,290	254,880	273,070
Growth from 2022	–	5400	20,990	39,170
FTE supply (later exits)	233,890	246,060	262,860	281,260
Growth from 2022	–	12,170	28,970	47,370
FTE supply (earlier exits)	233,890	231,930	246,800	264,760
Growth from 2022	–	−1960	12,910	30,870
FTE supply (more entrants)	233,890	245,250	266,330	289,520
Growth from 2022	–	11,360	32,430	55,620
FTE supply (fewer entrants)	233,890	233,360	243,450	256,610
Growth from 2022	–	−540	9560	22,720
FTE demand (baseline)	245,960	258,990	271,520	282,210
Growth from 2022	–	13,030	25,560	36,250
FTE demand (reduced barriers)	272,990	288,030	302,630	315,380
Growth from 2022 baseline	27,030	42,070	56,670	69,420
Baseline scenario
Supply–demand	−12,070	−19,700	−16,640	−9120
% Gap	−5.2%	−8.2%	−6.5%	−3.3%
Later exits scenario
Supply–demand	−12,070	−12,930	−8660	−950
% Gap	−5.2%	−5.3%	−3.3%	−0.3%
Earlier exits scenario
Supply–demand	−12,070	−27,060	−24,720	−17,450
% Gap	−5.2%	−11.7%	−10.0%	−6.6%
More graduates scenario
Supply–demand	−12,070	−13,740	−5190	7310
% Gap	−5.2%	−5.6%	−1.9%	2.5%
Fewer graduates scenario
Supply–demand	−12,070	−25,630	−28,070	−25,600
% Gap	−5.2%	−11.0%	−11.5%	−10.0%
Reduced barriers scenario
Supply–demand	−39,100	−48,740	−47,750	−42,310
% Gap	−16.7%	−20.4%	−18.7%	−15.5%

FTE = full-time equivalent.

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