Table 1. Open in new tab State A...

State A Unilateral SAI impacts onto State B Vital national interests
1. Potential termination shock	Direct damage via exacerbated climate change. Increased demand to provide security and aid.	Indirect damage to national ecosystems and economies. De-synchronization of current climate change policies.	State A unilaterally governs risks on State B’s interests. Degrades the legitimacy of multinational institutions to resolve conflict.
2. Environmental damage	Direct environmental damage of unclear nature and scale.	Direct damage to national ecosystems and economies.
3. Weaponization	Potential, though unlikely, State A gray zone strike capability. Potential for State A covert, indirect weaponization via influencing climate systems.
4. Geopolitical influence	Mitigated climate change impacts. Decreased climate-induced security pressures. Potential to degrade security arrangements if State B attempts and fails to deter State A’s SAI.	“Free Rider” benefits worth billions or trillions of dollars. Potential mitigation deterrence and conventional policy disruption.	State A technological prestige victory displaces State B’s geopolitical influence. Potential for State A to directly leverage SAI for geopolitical influence.

State A Unilateral SAI impacts onto State B Vital national interests

Interest impact

Protect the homeland and citizens

Protect economic prosperity

Protect national way of life

1. Potential termination shock

2. Environmental damage

3. Weaponization

Potential, though unlikely, State A gray zone strike capability.
Potential for State A covert, indirect weaponization via influencing climate systems.

4. Geopolitical influence

Mitigated climate change impacts.
Decreased climate-induced security pressures.
Potential to degrade security arrangements if State B attempts and fails to deter State A’s SAI.

State A technological prestige victory displaces State B’s geopolitical influence.
Potential for State A to directly leverage SAI for geopolitical influence.

State A Unilateral SAI impacts onto State B Vital national interests
1. Potential termination shock	Direct damage via exacerbated climate change. Increased demand to provide security and aid.	Indirect damage to national ecosystems and economies. De-synchronization of current climate change policies.	State A unilaterally governs risks on State B’s interests. Degrades the legitimacy of multinational institutions to resolve conflict.
2. Environmental damage	Direct environmental damage of unclear nature and scale.	Direct damage to national ecosystems and economies.
3. Weaponization	Potential, though unlikely, State A gray zone strike capability. Potential for State A covert, indirect weaponization via influencing climate systems.
4. Geopolitical influence	Mitigated climate change impacts. Decreased climate-induced security pressures. Potential to degrade security arrangements if State B attempts and fails to deter State A’s SAI.	“Free Rider” benefits worth billions or trillions of dollars. Potential mitigation deterrence and conventional policy disruption.	State A technological prestige victory displaces State B’s geopolitical influence. Potential for State A to directly leverage SAI for geopolitical influence.

Table 1.

State A unilateral SAI impacts onto State B’s vital national interests.

State A Unilateral SAI impacts onto State B Vital national interests
Interest impact	Protect the homeland and citizens	Protect economic prosperity	Protect national way of life
1. Potential termination shock	Direct damage via exacerbated climate change. Increased demand to provide security and aid.	Indirect damage to national ecosystems and economies. De-synchronization of current climate change policies.	State A unilaterally governs risks on State B’s interests. Degrades the legitimacy of multinational institutions to resolve conflict.
2. Environmental damage	Direct environmental damage of unclear nature and scale.	Direct damage to national ecosystems and economies.
3. Weaponization	Potential, though unlikely, State A gray zone strike capability. Potential for State A covert, indirect weaponization via influencing climate systems.
4. Geopolitical influence	Mitigated climate change impacts. Decreased climate-induced security pressures. Potential to degrade security arrangements if State B attempts and fails to deter State A’s SAI.	“Free Rider” benefits worth billions or trillions of dollars. Potential mitigation deterrence and conventional policy disruption.	State A technological prestige victory displaces State B’s geopolitical influence. Potential for State A to directly leverage SAI for geopolitical influence.

State A Unilateral SAI impacts onto State B Vital national interests
Interest impact	Protect the homeland and citizens	Protect economic prosperity	Protect national way of life
1. Potential termination shock	Direct damage via exacerbated climate change. Increased demand to provide security and aid.	Indirect damage to national ecosystems and economies. De-synchronization of current climate change policies.	State A unilaterally governs risks on State B’s interests. Degrades the legitimacy of multinational institutions to resolve conflict.
2. Environmental damage	Direct environmental damage of unclear nature and scale.	Direct damage to national ecosystems and economies.
3. Weaponization	Potential, though unlikely, State A gray zone strike capability. Potential for State A covert, indirect weaponization via influencing climate systems.
4. Geopolitical influence	Mitigated climate change impacts. Decreased climate-induced security pressures. Potential to degrade security arrangements if State B attempts and fails to deter State A’s SAI.	“Free Rider” benefits worth billions or trillions of dollars. Potential mitigation deterrence and conventional policy disruption.	State A technological prestige victory displaces State B’s geopolitical influence. Potential for State A to directly leverage SAI for geopolitical influence.

Note: Green items are SAI opportunities. Red items are SAI threats.

Source: Created by author.