Log-Linear Per-SIA Impact of mOPV2 and nOPV2 on cVDPV2 Poliomyelitis Incidence (RR) and Prevalence in Environmental Surveillance (OR) in Nigeria, Adjusting for Immunity Before the SIA and LQAS Result
| Factor . | Impact on cVDPV2 Poliomyelitis Incidence . | Impact on cVDPV2 Prevalence in Environmental Surveillance . | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Without Adjustment for LQAS Result . | With Adjustment for LQAS Result . | Without Adjustment for LQAS Result . | With Adjustment for LQAS Result . | |||||
| aRR . | (95% CI) . | aRR . | (95% CI) . | aOR . | (95% CI) . | aOR . | (95% CI) . | |
| mOPV2 SIA | 0.353 | (.259–.482) | 0.266 | (.193–.367) | 0.402 | (.343–.472) | 0.262 | (.213–.323) |
| nOPV2 SIA | 0.493 | (.432–.562) | 0.406 | (.347–.475) | 0.473 | (.422–.529) | 0.355 | (.304–.416) |
| Immunity, per 10% absolute increase | 1.15 | (1.10–1.20) | 1.15 | (1.10–1.20) | 1.12 | (1.10–1.14) | 1.13 | (1.11–1.16) |
| LQAS result | ||||||||
| Pass, likely > 90% coverage | … | … | CV | CV | … | … | CV | CV |
| Fail, likely < 90% coverage | … | … | 1.61 | (1.17–2.22) | … | … | 1.54 | (1.17–2.05) |
| No data | … | … | 1.73 | (1.35–2.23) | … | … | 2.90 | (2.09–4.03) |
| nOPV2 vs mOPV2 | ||||||||
| Ratio of aRR and aOR | 1.42 | 1.53 | 1.17 | 1.35 | ||||
| P value for difference in aRR and aOR | .0522 | .0206 | .107 | .0215 | ||||
| Factor . | Impact on cVDPV2 Poliomyelitis Incidence . | Impact on cVDPV2 Prevalence in Environmental Surveillance . | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Without Adjustment for LQAS Result . | With Adjustment for LQAS Result . | Without Adjustment for LQAS Result . | With Adjustment for LQAS Result . | |||||
| aRR . | (95% CI) . | aRR . | (95% CI) . | aOR . | (95% CI) . | aOR . | (95% CI) . | |
| mOPV2 SIA | 0.353 | (.259–.482) | 0.266 | (.193–.367) | 0.402 | (.343–.472) | 0.262 | (.213–.323) |
| nOPV2 SIA | 0.493 | (.432–.562) | 0.406 | (.347–.475) | 0.473 | (.422–.529) | 0.355 | (.304–.416) |
| Immunity, per 10% absolute increase | 1.15 | (1.10–1.20) | 1.15 | (1.10–1.20) | 1.12 | (1.10–1.14) | 1.13 | (1.11–1.16) |
| LQAS result | ||||||||
| Pass, likely > 90% coverage | … | … | CV | CV | … | … | CV | CV |
| Fail, likely < 90% coverage | … | … | 1.61 | (1.17–2.22) | … | … | 1.54 | (1.17–2.05) |
| No data | … | … | 1.73 | (1.35–2.23) | … | … | 2.90 | (2.09–4.03) |
| nOPV2 vs mOPV2 | ||||||||
| Ratio of aRR and aOR | 1.42 | 1.53 | 1.17 | 1.35 | ||||
| P value for difference in aRR and aOR | .0522 | .0206 | .107 | .0215 | ||||
LQAS is a standardized cluster survey method designed to detect whether coverage at the district level has likely exceeded (pass) or not exceeded (fail) a fixed threshold of 90%.
Abbreviations: aOR, adjusted odds ratio; aRR, adjusted risk ratio; CI, confidence interval; cVDPV2, circulating vaccine-derived type 2 poliomyelitis; CV, constrained variable; LQAS, lot quality assurance sampling; mOPV2, monovalent type 2 oral poliovirus vaccine; nOPV2, novel type 2 oral poliovirus vaccine; SIA, supplementary immunization activities.
Log-Linear Per-SIA Impact of mOPV2 and nOPV2 on cVDPV2 Poliomyelitis Incidence (RR) and Prevalence in Environmental Surveillance (OR) in Nigeria, Adjusting for Immunity Before the SIA and LQAS Result
| Factor . | Impact on cVDPV2 Poliomyelitis Incidence . | Impact on cVDPV2 Prevalence in Environmental Surveillance . | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Without Adjustment for LQAS Result . | With Adjustment for LQAS Result . | Without Adjustment for LQAS Result . | With Adjustment for LQAS Result . | |||||
| aRR . | (95% CI) . | aRR . | (95% CI) . | aOR . | (95% CI) . | aOR . | (95% CI) . | |
| mOPV2 SIA | 0.353 | (.259–.482) | 0.266 | (.193–.367) | 0.402 | (.343–.472) | 0.262 | (.213–.323) |
| nOPV2 SIA | 0.493 | (.432–.562) | 0.406 | (.347–.475) | 0.473 | (.422–.529) | 0.355 | (.304–.416) |
| Immunity, per 10% absolute increase | 1.15 | (1.10–1.20) | 1.15 | (1.10–1.20) | 1.12 | (1.10–1.14) | 1.13 | (1.11–1.16) |
| LQAS result | ||||||||
| Pass, likely > 90% coverage | … | … | CV | CV | … | … | CV | CV |
| Fail, likely < 90% coverage | … | … | 1.61 | (1.17–2.22) | … | … | 1.54 | (1.17–2.05) |
| No data | … | … | 1.73 | (1.35–2.23) | … | … | 2.90 | (2.09–4.03) |
| nOPV2 vs mOPV2 | ||||||||
| Ratio of aRR and aOR | 1.42 | 1.53 | 1.17 | 1.35 | ||||
| P value for difference in aRR and aOR | .0522 | .0206 | .107 | .0215 | ||||
| Factor . | Impact on cVDPV2 Poliomyelitis Incidence . | Impact on cVDPV2 Prevalence in Environmental Surveillance . | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Without Adjustment for LQAS Result . | With Adjustment for LQAS Result . | Without Adjustment for LQAS Result . | With Adjustment for LQAS Result . | |||||
| aRR . | (95% CI) . | aRR . | (95% CI) . | aOR . | (95% CI) . | aOR . | (95% CI) . | |
| mOPV2 SIA | 0.353 | (.259–.482) | 0.266 | (.193–.367) | 0.402 | (.343–.472) | 0.262 | (.213–.323) |
| nOPV2 SIA | 0.493 | (.432–.562) | 0.406 | (.347–.475) | 0.473 | (.422–.529) | 0.355 | (.304–.416) |
| Immunity, per 10% absolute increase | 1.15 | (1.10–1.20) | 1.15 | (1.10–1.20) | 1.12 | (1.10–1.14) | 1.13 | (1.11–1.16) |
| LQAS result | ||||||||
| Pass, likely > 90% coverage | … | … | CV | CV | … | … | CV | CV |
| Fail, likely < 90% coverage | … | … | 1.61 | (1.17–2.22) | … | … | 1.54 | (1.17–2.05) |
| No data | … | … | 1.73 | (1.35–2.23) | … | … | 2.90 | (2.09–4.03) |
| nOPV2 vs mOPV2 | ||||||||
| Ratio of aRR and aOR | 1.42 | 1.53 | 1.17 | 1.35 | ||||
| P value for difference in aRR and aOR | .0522 | .0206 | .107 | .0215 | ||||
LQAS is a standardized cluster survey method designed to detect whether coverage at the district level has likely exceeded (pass) or not exceeded (fail) a fixed threshold of 90%.
Abbreviations: aOR, adjusted odds ratio; aRR, adjusted risk ratio; CI, confidence interval; cVDPV2, circulating vaccine-derived type 2 poliomyelitis; CV, constrained variable; LQAS, lot quality assurance sampling; mOPV2, monovalent type 2 oral poliovirus vaccine; nOPV2, novel type 2 oral poliovirus vaccine; SIA, supplementary immunization activities.
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