Table 1 Open in new tab Details of model...

Parameter

Value at base case

Range

Distribution

Reference

Transition probability (%/year)

To HL

High risk

PBT

8.5%

±20%

β(6.87, 7.71)

[17], assumption

Photon therapy

14.5%

±20%

β(0.37, 1.01)

[17], assumption

Standard-risk

PBT

5.1%

±20%

β(2.26, 3.54)

[17], assumption

Photon therapy

12.2%

±20%

β(1.20, 6.53)

[17], assumption

To HT

PBT

0.094

±20%

β(1.81, 6.05)

[7], assumption

Photon therapy

0.038

±20%

β(2.10, 5.14)

[7], assumption

To secondary cancer

High risk

PBT

0.1%

±20%

β(1.944, 1.656)

[18], assumption

Photon therapy

0.7%

±20%

β(0.729, 7.371)

[18], assumption

Standard-risk

PBT

0.09%

±20%

β(0.58, 7.71)

[18], assumption

Photon therapy

0.5%

±20%

β(2.025 2.475)

[18], assumption

Death from secondary cancer
(applied 5 years)

Male

7.3%

±20%

β(1.41, 2.30)

[31], assumption

Female

6.4%

±20%

β(1.13, 2.29)

[31], assumption

Death from health states
other than secondary cancer

General population

[32]

Death due to medulloblastoma
(5-year survival rate)

High risk

70%

55–85%

β(0.96,2.24)

[18]

Standard-risk

85%

75–95%

β(0.49,2.76)

[18]

Basic parameters

Male: Female

48.6: 51.2

[32]

Proportion of high risk

64%

60–70%

Normal (0.64, 0.02)

[18]

Age (years old)

3–14

Normal (2, 8)

Discount rate

2%/year

0–4%/year

[16]

Utility

Population in 10s

0.97

0.84–1

β(4.99, 0.14)

[33]

Population in 20s

0.95

0.77–1

β(4.48, 0.23)

[33]

Population in 30s

0.95

0.75–1

β(3.93, 0.21)

[33]

Population in 40s

0.95

0.76–1

β(4.77, 0.27)

[33]

Population in 50s

0.93

0.71–1

β(4.46, 0.35)

[33]

Population in 60s

0.93

0.70–1

β(3.99, 0.31)

[33]

Population in 70s

0.88

0.57–1

β(2.90, 0.39)

[33]

Population in 80s

0.80

0.38–1

β(2.08, 0.53)

[33]

Disutility by adverse events

−0.093

−0.186 to −0.047

β(0.93,9.09)

[33]

−0.0224

−0.0112 to −0.045

β(1.38, 56.2)

[34]

Secondary cancer

−0.093

−0.186 to −0.047

β(0.93,9.09)

[33]

Costs (JPY)

PBT

2375000

1187500 to 4750000

[35]

Photon therapy

High risk

676700

338350–1353400

[35]

Standard-risk

636800

318400–1273600

[35]

Treatments for adverse event

HL (JPY/year)

20460

10230–40920

γ(16.0, 0.00074)

[35], assumption

HT (JPY/year)

21418

10709–42835

γ(16.0, 0.00078)

[35], assumption

Secondary cancer (JPY/patient)

1280088

640044–2560175

γ(18.2, 0.00001)

[34, 36]

Table 1

Open in new tab

Details of model parameters in this study

Parameter	Value at base case	Range	Distribution	Reference
Transition probability (%/year)
To HL
High risk
PBT	8.5%	±20%	β(6.87, 7.71)	[17], assumption
Photon therapy	14.5%	±20%	β(0.37, 1.01)	[17], assumption
Standard-risk
PBT	5.1%	±20%	β(2.26, 3.54)	[17], assumption
Photon therapy	12.2%	±20%	β(1.20, 6.53)	[17], assumption
To HT
PBT	0.094	±20%	β(1.81, 6.05)	[7], assumption
Photon therapy	0.038	±20%	β(2.10, 5.14)	[7], assumption
To secondary cancer
High risk
PBT	0.1%	±20%	β(1.944, 1.656)	[18], assumption
Photon therapy	0.7%	±20%	β(0.729, 7.371)	[18], assumption
Standard-risk
PBT	0.09%	±20%	β(0.58, 7.71)	[18], assumption
Photon therapy	0.5%	±20%	β(2.025 2.475)	[18], assumption
Death from secondary cancer (applied 5 years)
Male	7.3%	±20%	β(1.41, 2.30)	[31], assumption
Female	6.4%	±20%	β(1.13, 2.29)	[31], assumption
Death from health states other than secondary cancer	General population			[32]
Death due to medulloblastoma (5-year survival rate)
High risk	70%	55–85%	β(0.96,2.24)	[18]
Standard-risk	85%	75–95%	β(0.49,2.76)	[18]
Basic parameters
Male: Female	48.6: 51.2			[32]
Proportion of high risk	64%	60–70%	Normal (0.64, 0.02)	[18]
Age (years old)	8	3–14	Normal (2, 8)
Discount rate	2%/year	0–4%/year		[16]
Utility
Population in 10s	0.97	0.84–1	β(4.99, 0.14)	[33]
Population in 20s	0.95	0.77–1	β(4.48, 0.23)	[33]
Population in 30s	0.95	0.75–1	β(3.93, 0.21)	[33]
Population in 40s	0.95	0.76–1	β(4.77, 0.27)	[33]
Population in 50s	0.93	0.71–1	β(4.46, 0.35)	[33]
Population in 60s	0.93	0.70–1	β(3.99, 0.31)	[33]
Population in 70s	0.88	0.57–1	β(2.90, 0.39)	[33]
Population in 80s	0.80	0.38–1	β(2.08, 0.53)	[33]
Disutility by adverse events
HL	−0.093	−0.186 to −0.047	β(0.93,9.09)	[33]
HT	−0.0224	−0.0112 to −0.045	β(1.38, 56.2)	[34]
Secondary cancer	−0.093	−0.186 to −0.047	β(0.93,9.09)	[33]
Costs (JPY)
PBT	2375000	1187500 to 4750000		[35]
Photon therapy
High risk	676700	338350–1353400		[35]
Standard-risk	636800	318400–1273600		[35]
Treatments for adverse event
HL (JPY/year)	20460	10230–40920	γ(16.0, 0.00074)	[35], assumption
HT (JPY/year)	21418	10709–42835	γ(16.0, 0.00078)	[35], assumption
Secondary cancer (JPY/patient)	1280088	640044–2560175	γ(18.2, 0.00001)	[34, 36]

Parameter	Value at base case	Range	Distribution	Reference
Transition probability (%/year)
To HL
High risk
PBT	8.5%	±20%	β(6.87, 7.71)	[17], assumption
Photon therapy	14.5%	±20%	β(0.37, 1.01)	[17], assumption
Standard-risk
PBT	5.1%	±20%	β(2.26, 3.54)	[17], assumption
Photon therapy	12.2%	±20%	β(1.20, 6.53)	[17], assumption
To HT
PBT	0.094	±20%	β(1.81, 6.05)	[7], assumption
Photon therapy	0.038	±20%	β(2.10, 5.14)	[7], assumption
To secondary cancer
High risk
PBT	0.1%	±20%	β(1.944, 1.656)	[18], assumption
Photon therapy	0.7%	±20%	β(0.729, 7.371)	[18], assumption
Standard-risk
PBT	0.09%	±20%	β(0.58, 7.71)	[18], assumption
Photon therapy	0.5%	±20%	β(2.025 2.475)	[18], assumption
Death from secondary cancer (applied 5 years)
Male	7.3%	±20%	β(1.41, 2.30)	[31], assumption
Female	6.4%	±20%	β(1.13, 2.29)	[31], assumption
Death from health states other than secondary cancer	General population			[32]
Death due to medulloblastoma (5-year survival rate)
High risk	70%	55–85%	β(0.96,2.24)	[18]
Standard-risk	85%	75–95%	β(0.49,2.76)	[18]
Basic parameters
Male: Female	48.6: 51.2			[32]
Proportion of high risk	64%	60–70%	Normal (0.64, 0.02)	[18]
Age (years old)	8	3–14	Normal (2, 8)
Discount rate	2%/year	0–4%/year		[16]
Utility
Population in 10s	0.97	0.84–1	β(4.99, 0.14)	[33]
Population in 20s	0.95	0.77–1	β(4.48, 0.23)	[33]
Population in 30s	0.95	0.75–1	β(3.93, 0.21)	[33]
Population in 40s	0.95	0.76–1	β(4.77, 0.27)	[33]
Population in 50s	0.93	0.71–1	β(4.46, 0.35)	[33]
Population in 60s	0.93	0.70–1	β(3.99, 0.31)	[33]
Population in 70s	0.88	0.57–1	β(2.90, 0.39)	[33]
Population in 80s	0.80	0.38–1	β(2.08, 0.53)	[33]
Disutility by adverse events
HL	−0.093	−0.186 to −0.047	β(0.93,9.09)	[33]
HT	−0.0224	−0.0112 to −0.045	β(1.38, 56.2)	[34]
Secondary cancer	−0.093	−0.186 to −0.047	β(0.93,9.09)	[33]
Costs (JPY)
PBT	2375000	1187500 to 4750000		[35]
Photon therapy
High risk	676700	338350–1353400		[35]
Standard-risk	636800	318400–1273600		[35]
Treatments for adverse event
HL (JPY/year)	20460	10230–40920	γ(16.0, 0.00074)	[35], assumption
HT (JPY/year)	21418	10709–42835	γ(16.0, 0.00078)	[35], assumption
Secondary cancer (JPY/patient)	1280088	640044–2560175	γ(18.2, 0.00001)	[34, 36]

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