Table 3

Estimated expected log predictive density (ELPD), multiplied by |$-$|2 to replicate scale of information criteria. Smaller values indicate better model fit 

 AFT model
 Log-normalWeibullTBP (Weibull centered)
AD/dementia onset (death as a censoring mechanism)
  Constant5862.05806.35800.4
  Piecewise linear5841.55788.45782.2
  Restricted cubic spline5814.95780.95776.8
Death (AD/dementia as a time-varying covariate)
  Constant9997.29666.79629.8
  Piecewise linear9919.89636.79601.7
  Restricted cubic spline9884.59600.99566.7
 AFT model
 Log-normalWeibullTBP (Weibull centered)
AD/dementia onset (death as a censoring mechanism)
  Constant5862.05806.35800.4
  Piecewise linear5841.55788.45782.2
  Restricted cubic spline5814.95780.95776.8
Death (AD/dementia as a time-varying covariate)
  Constant9997.29666.79629.8
  Piecewise linear9919.89636.79601.7
  Restricted cubic spline9884.59600.99566.7
Table 3

Estimated expected log predictive density (ELPD), multiplied by |$-$|2 to replicate scale of information criteria. Smaller values indicate better model fit 

 AFT model
 Log-normalWeibullTBP (Weibull centered)
AD/dementia onset (death as a censoring mechanism)
  Constant5862.05806.35800.4
  Piecewise linear5841.55788.45782.2
  Restricted cubic spline5814.95780.95776.8
Death (AD/dementia as a time-varying covariate)
  Constant9997.29666.79629.8
  Piecewise linear9919.89636.79601.7
  Restricted cubic spline9884.59600.99566.7
 AFT model
 Log-normalWeibullTBP (Weibull centered)
AD/dementia onset (death as a censoring mechanism)
  Constant5862.05806.35800.4
  Piecewise linear5841.55788.45782.2
  Restricted cubic spline5814.95780.95776.8
Death (AD/dementia as a time-varying covariate)
  Constant9997.29666.79629.8
  Piecewise linear9919.89636.79601.7
  Restricted cubic spline9884.59600.99566.7
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