Table 4. Open in new tab...

		Number of African ancestors
0	1610–1615	0.14	0.07	0.54	0.01	0.00	0.09
1	1635–1640	4.25	1.99	3.41	0.41	0.19	0.71
2	1660–1665	14.27	6.04	7.28	2.45	1.03	1.93
3	1685–1690	52.70	19.95	20.47	15.33	5.80	6.91
4	1710–1715	119.90	40.15	42.22	55.60	18.62	20.50
5	1735–1740	96.76	28.37	33.45	65.10	19.09	23.12
6	1760–1765	16.18	4.14	6.60	13.94	3.57	5.88
7	1785–1790	4.10	2.71	2.50	3.97	2.62	2.45
8	1810–1815	2.31	1.57	1.70	2.31	1.57	1.70
9	1835–1840	1.31	0.91	1.20	1.31	0.91	1.19
10	1860–1865	0.94	0.39	0.99	0.94	0.39	0.99
11	1885–1890	0.53	0.23	0.72	0.53	0.23	0.72
12	1910–1915	0.30	0.14	0.53	0.30	0.14	0.53
13	1935–1940	0.17	0.08	0.39	0.17	0.08	0.39
Total	—	313.86	98.58	102.62	162.37	46.72	52.66

Number of African ancestors

Genealogical

Genetic

Generation (n)

Birth year

Mean of expectation

Standard deviation of expectation

Mean of standard deviation

Mean of expectation

Standard deviation of expectation

Mean of standard deviation

1610–1615

0.14

0.07

0.54

0.01

0.00

0.09

1635–1640

4.25

1.99

3.41

0.41

0.19

0.71

1660–1665

14.27

6.04

7.28

2.45

1.03

1.93

1685–1690

52.70

19.95

20.47

15.33

5.80

6.91

1710–1715

119.90

40.15

42.22

55.60

18.62

20.50

1735–1740

96.76

28.37

33.45

65.10

19.09

23.12

1760–1765

16.18

4.14

6.60

13.94

3.57

5.88

1785–1790

4.10

2.71

2.50

3.97

2.62

2.45

1810–1815

2.31

1.57

1.70

2.31

1.57

1.70

1835–1840

1.31

0.91

1.20

1.31

0.91

1.19

1860–1865

0.94

0.39

0.99

0.94

0.39

0.99

1885–1890

0.53

0.23

0.72

0.53

0.23

0.72

1910–1915

0.30

0.14

0.53

0.30

0.14

0.53

1935–1940

0.17

0.08

0.39

0.17

0.08

0.39

Total

—

313.86

98.58

102.62

162.37

46.72

52.66

		Number of African ancestors
0	1610–1615	0.14	0.07	0.54	0.01	0.00	0.09
1	1635–1640	4.25	1.99	3.41	0.41	0.19	0.71
2	1660–1665	14.27	6.04	7.28	2.45	1.03	1.93
3	1685–1690	52.70	19.95	20.47	15.33	5.80	6.91
4	1710–1715	119.90	40.15	42.22	55.60	18.62	20.50
5	1735–1740	96.76	28.37	33.45	65.10	19.09	23.12
6	1760–1765	16.18	4.14	6.60	13.94	3.57	5.88
7	1785–1790	4.10	2.71	2.50	3.97	2.62	2.45
8	1810–1815	2.31	1.57	1.70	2.31	1.57	1.70
9	1835–1840	1.31	0.91	1.20	1.31	0.91	1.19
10	1860–1865	0.94	0.39	0.99	0.94	0.39	0.99
11	1885–1890	0.53	0.23	0.72	0.53	0.23	0.72
12	1910–1915	0.30	0.14	0.53	0.30	0.14	0.53
13	1935–1940	0.17	0.08	0.39	0.17	0.08	0.39
Total	—	313.86	98.58	102.62	162.37	46.72	52.66

		Number of European ancestors
0	1610–1615	—	—	—	—	—	—
1	1635–1640	0.32	0.14	0.61	0.03	0.01	0.18
2	1660–1665	1.28	0.61	1.31	0.22	0.10	0.48
3	1685–1690	4.98	2.52	3.10	1.45	0.73	1.36
4	1710–1715	12.98	7.07	6.50	6.02	3.28	3.53
5	1735–1740	16.01	9.44	7.80	10.77	6.35	5.60
6	1760–1765	10.67	6.85	5.58	9.19	5.90	4.96
7	1785–1790	2.38	1.84	1.84	2.30	1.78	1.81
8	1810–1815	1.33	1.04	1.27	1.33	1.04	1.27
9	1835–1840	0.75	0.60	0.90	0.75	0.60	0.90
10	1860–1865	0.19	0.12	0.44	0.19	0.12	0.44
11	1885–1890	0.10	0.06	0.32	0.10	0.06	0.32
12	1910–1915	0.06	0.03	0.24	0.06	0.03	0.24
13	1935–1940	0.03	0.02	0.18	0.03	0.02	0.18
Total	—	51.08	24.32	18.68	32.44	14.31	12.18

Number of European ancestors

Genealogical

Genetic

Generation (n)

Birth year

Mean of expectation

Standard deviation of expectation

Mean of standard deviation

Mean of expectation

Standard deviation of expectation

Mean of standard deviation

1610–1615

—

1635–1640

0.32

0.14

0.61

0.03

0.01

0.18

1660–1665

1.28

0.61

1.31

0.22

0.10

0.48

1685–1690

4.98

2.52

3.10

1.45

0.73

1.36

1710–1715

12.98

7.07

6.50

6.02

3.28

3.53

1735–1740

16.01

9.44

7.80

10.77

6.35

5.60

1760–1765

10.67

6.85

5.58

9.19

5.90

4.96

1785–1790

2.38

1.84

2.30

1.78

1.81

1810–1815

1.33

1.04

1.27

1.33

1.04

1.27

1835–1840

0.75

0.60

0.90

0.75

0.60

0.90

1860–1865

0.19

0.12

0.44

0.19

0.12

0.44

1885–1890

0.10

0.06

0.32

0.10

0.06

0.32

1910–1915

0.06

0.03

0.24

0.06

0.03

0.24

1935–1940

0.03

0.02

0.18

0.03

0.02

0.18

Total

—

51.08

24.32

18.68

32.44

14.31

12.18

		Number of European ancestors
0	1610–1615	—	—	—	—	—	—
1	1635–1640	0.32	0.14	0.61	0.03	0.01	0.18
2	1660–1665	1.28	0.61	1.31	0.22	0.10	0.48
3	1685–1690	4.98	2.52	3.10	1.45	0.73	1.36
4	1710–1715	12.98	7.07	6.50	6.02	3.28	3.53
5	1735–1740	16.01	9.44	7.80	10.77	6.35	5.60
6	1760–1765	10.67	6.85	5.58	9.19	5.90	4.96
7	1785–1790	2.38	1.84	1.84	2.30	1.78	1.81
8	1810–1815	1.33	1.04	1.27	1.33	1.04	1.27
9	1835–1840	0.75	0.60	0.90	0.75	0.60	0.90
10	1860–1865	0.19	0.12	0.44	0.19	0.12	0.44
11	1885–1890	0.10	0.06	0.32	0.10	0.06	0.32
12	1910–1915	0.06	0.03	0.24	0.06	0.03	0.24
13	1935–1940	0.03	0.02	0.18	0.03	0.02	0.18
Total	—	51.08	24.32	18.68	32.44	14.31	12.18

Table 4.

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Generation-specific expectations of the numbers of African and European genealogical and genetic ancestors across accepted parameter sets.

		Number of African ancestors
		Genealogical			Genetic
Generation (n)	Birth year	Mean of expectation	Standard deviation of expectation	Mean of standard deviation	Mean of expectation	Standard deviation of expectation	Mean of standard deviation
0	1610–1615	0.14	0.07	0.54	0.01	0.00	0.09
1	1635–1640	4.25	1.99	3.41	0.41	0.19	0.71
2	1660–1665	14.27	6.04	7.28	2.45	1.03	1.93
3	1685–1690	52.70	19.95	20.47	15.33	5.80	6.91
4	1710–1715	119.90	40.15	42.22	55.60	18.62	20.50
5	1735–1740	96.76	28.37	33.45	65.10	19.09	23.12
6	1760–1765	16.18	4.14	6.60	13.94	3.57	5.88
7	1785–1790	4.10	2.71	2.50	3.97	2.62	2.45
8	1810–1815	2.31	1.57	1.70	2.31	1.57	1.70
9	1835–1840	1.31	0.91	1.20	1.31	0.91	1.19
10	1860–1865	0.94	0.39	0.99	0.94	0.39	0.99
11	1885–1890	0.53	0.23	0.72	0.53	0.23	0.72
12	1910–1915	0.30	0.14	0.53	0.30	0.14	0.53
13	1935–1940	0.17	0.08	0.39	0.17	0.08	0.39
Total	—	313.86	98.58	102.62	162.37	46.72	52.66

		Number of African ancestors
		Genealogical			Genetic
Generation (n)	Birth year	Mean of expectation	Standard deviation of expectation	Mean of standard deviation	Mean of expectation	Standard deviation of expectation	Mean of standard deviation
0	1610–1615	0.14	0.07	0.54	0.01	0.00	0.09
1	1635–1640	4.25	1.99	3.41	0.41	0.19	0.71
2	1660–1665	14.27	6.04	7.28	2.45	1.03	1.93
3	1685–1690	52.70	19.95	20.47	15.33	5.80	6.91
4	1710–1715	119.90	40.15	42.22	55.60	18.62	20.50
5	1735–1740	96.76	28.37	33.45	65.10	19.09	23.12
6	1760–1765	16.18	4.14	6.60	13.94	3.57	5.88
7	1785–1790	4.10	2.71	2.50	3.97	2.62	2.45
8	1810–1815	2.31	1.57	1.70	2.31	1.57	1.70
9	1835–1840	1.31	0.91	1.20	1.31	0.91	1.19
10	1860–1865	0.94	0.39	0.99	0.94	0.39	0.99
11	1885–1890	0.53	0.23	0.72	0.53	0.23	0.72
12	1910–1915	0.30	0.14	0.53	0.30	0.14	0.53
13	1935–1940	0.17	0.08	0.39	0.17	0.08	0.39
Total	—	313.86	98.58	102.62	162.37	46.72	52.66

		Number of European ancestors
		Genealogical			Genetic
Generation (n)	Birth year	Mean of expectation	Standard deviation of expectation	Mean of standard deviation	Mean of expectation	Standard deviation of expectation	Mean of standard deviation
0	1610–1615	—	—	—	—	—	—
1	1635–1640	0.32	0.14	0.61	0.03	0.01	0.18
2	1660–1665	1.28	0.61	1.31	0.22	0.10	0.48
3	1685–1690	4.98	2.52	3.10	1.45	0.73	1.36
4	1710–1715	12.98	7.07	6.50	6.02	3.28	3.53
5	1735–1740	16.01	9.44	7.80	10.77	6.35	5.60
6	1760–1765	10.67	6.85	5.58	9.19	5.90	4.96
7	1785–1790	2.38	1.84	1.84	2.30	1.78	1.81
8	1810–1815	1.33	1.04	1.27	1.33	1.04	1.27
9	1835–1840	0.75	0.60	0.90	0.75	0.60	0.90
10	1860–1865	0.19	0.12	0.44	0.19	0.12	0.44
11	1885–1890	0.10	0.06	0.32	0.10	0.06	0.32
12	1910–1915	0.06	0.03	0.24	0.06	0.03	0.24
13	1935–1940	0.03	0.02	0.18	0.03	0.02	0.18
Total	—	51.08	24.32	18.68	32.44	14.31	12.18

		Number of European ancestors
		Genealogical			Genetic
Generation (n)	Birth year	Mean of expectation	Standard deviation of expectation	Mean of standard deviation	Mean of expectation	Standard deviation of expectation	Mean of standard deviation
0	1610–1615	—	—	—	—	—	—
1	1635–1640	0.32	0.14	0.61	0.03	0.01	0.18
2	1660–1665	1.28	0.61	1.31	0.22	0.10	0.48
3	1685–1690	4.98	2.52	3.10	1.45	0.73	1.36
4	1710–1715	12.98	7.07	6.50	6.02	3.28	3.53
5	1735–1740	16.01	9.44	7.80	10.77	6.35	5.60
6	1760–1765	10.67	6.85	5.58	9.19	5.90	4.96
7	1785–1790	2.38	1.84	1.84	2.30	1.78	1.81
8	1810–1815	1.33	1.04	1.27	1.33	1.04	1.27
9	1835–1840	0.75	0.60	0.90	0.75	0.60	0.90
10	1860–1865	0.19	0.12	0.44	0.19	0.12	0.44
11	1885–1890	0.10	0.06	0.32	0.10	0.06	0.32
12	1910–1915	0.06	0.03	0.24	0.06	0.03	0.24
13	1935–1940	0.03	0.02	0.18	0.03	0.02	0.18
Total	—	51.08	24.32	18.68	32.44	14.31	12.18

Values are calculated as in Table 1. The mean of the expectation for African genealogical ancestors is obtained by averaging values of Eq. 10 across accepted parameter sets (Eq. 15 for genetic ancestors); the standard deviation of the expectation takes the standard deviation of those values. The mean of the standard deviation for African genealogical ancestors is obtained as the mean of Eq. 11 across accepted parameter sets (Eq. 16 for genetic ancestors). For the total, the mean of the expectation of the sum of the African genealogical ancestors is calculated by averaging values of Eq. 12 across accepted parameter sets (Eq. 17 for genetic ancestors); the standard deviation of the expectation takes the standard deviation of those values. The mean of the standard deviation for the total African genealogical ancestors is obtained as the mean of Eq. 13 across accepted parameter sets (Eq. 18 for genetic ancestors). Corresponding quantities for European ancestors are calculated by replacing each $s_{1, g - k}$ with $s_{2, g - k}$ ⁠. The values of the total means for the expectation and standard deviation of African and European genealogical ancestors are those that appear in Table 3 of Mooney et al. (2023). The table shows the generationwise values plotted in Fig. 7 for the means and standard deviations of the expectation across the accepted parameter sets.

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