Table 18. Open in new tab The effect of...

	(I)	(II)	(III)	(IV)	(V)
Reform_ey (Maj)	−1.219*	−0.746	−1.457	−5.089	−1.466**
	(0.664)	(0.724)	(4.366)	(3.276)	(0.669)
Reform_ey (nonMaj)	−1.439**	−1.807***	−1.960***	−2.167*	−3.793***
	(0.558)	(0.669)	(0.524)	(1.185)	(0.721)
Reform_term (Maj)	0.208	0.527	4.321	−10.321	−0.200
	(1.447)	(1.728)	(3.265)	(7.640)	(1.369)
Reform_term (nonMaj)	−0.388	−0.391	−0.457	−0.553	−0.515
	(0.559)	(0.574)	(1.032)	(1.224)	(0.555)
Initial level regulation	−3.287	−0.427	−0.874	−0.904	−7.061*
	(3.100)	(4.655)	(7.401)	(3.032)	(3.628)
Growth_ey	0.505**	0.351	0.459*	0.489**	0.554**
	(0.211)	(0.247)	(0.263)	(0.204)	(0.226)
Growth_term	0.428	0.694*	1.206**	0.448	0.342
	(0.325)	(0.360)	(0.568)	(0.315)	(0.337)
Advanced economy	3.439***		4.880	2.759**	3.677***
	(1.248)		(3.018)	(1.328)	(1.284)
New democracies	0.789	−0.030	1.488	1.263	0.898
	(1.109)	(1.962)	(2.285)	(1.142)	(1.045)
Majoritarian system	1.906	2.623	−2.089	2.690**	1.265
	(1.660)	(4.856)	(3.501)	(1.200)	(1.545)
Lagged vote share	−0.145	−0.242**	0.001	−0.126	−0.144
	(0.094)	(0.094)	(0.123)	(0.095)	(0.094)
Total effect (Maj)	−1.011	−0.219	2.864	−15.410	−1.666
Total effect (nonMaj)	−1.827	−2.198	−2.417	−2.720	−4.308
F-test: difference	0.17	0.69	1.64	2.34	2.30
Kleibergen–Paap rk Wald F statistic					32.90
Stock–Yogo 10% critical value					16.38
(Uncentered) R²	0.10	0.10	0.15	0.10	0.26
Observations	327	327	127	327	327

(I)

(II)

(III)

(IV)

(V)

OLS

OLS w/FE

Ex. elections

IMF

Reform_ey (Maj)

−1.219*

−0.746

−1.457

−5.089

−1.466**

(0.664)

(0.724)

(4.366)

(3.276)

(0.669)

Reform_ey (nonMaj)

−1.439**

−1.807***

−1.960***

−2.167*

−3.793***

(0.558)

(0.669)

(0.524)

(1.185)

(0.721)

Reform_term (Maj)

0.208

0.527

4.321

−10.321

−0.200

(1.447)

(1.728)

(3.265)

(7.640)

(1.369)

Reform_term (nonMaj)

−0.388

−0.391

−0.457

−0.553

−0.515

(0.559)

(0.574)

(1.032)

(1.224)

(0.555)

Initial level regulation

−3.287

−0.427

−0.874

−0.904

−7.061*

(3.100)

(4.655)

(7.401)

(3.032)

(3.628)

Growth_ey

0.505**

0.351

0.459*

0.489**

0.554**

(0.211)

(0.247)

(0.263)

(0.204)

(0.226)

Growth_term

0.428

0.694*

1.206**

0.448

0.342

(0.325)

(0.360)

(0.568)

(0.315)

(0.337)

Advanced economy

3.439***

4.880

2.759**

3.677***

(1.248)

(3.018)

(1.328)

(1.284)

New democracies

0.789

−0.030

1.488

1.263

0.898

(1.109)

(1.962)

(2.285)

(1.142)

(1.045)

Majoritarian system

1.906

2.623

−2.089

2.690**

1.265

(1.660)

(4.856)

(3.501)

(1.200)

(1.545)

Lagged vote share

−0.145

−0.242**

0.001

−0.126

−0.144

(0.094)

(0.123)

(0.095)

(0.094)

Total effect (Maj)

−1.011

−0.219

2.864

−15.410

−1.666

Total effect (nonMaj)

−1.827

−2.198

−2.417

−2.720

−4.308

F-test: difference

0.17

0.69

1.64

2.34

2.30

Kleibergen–Paap rk Wald F statistic

32.90

Stock–Yogo 10% critical value

16.38

(Uncentered) R²

0.10

0.15

0.10

0.26

Observations

327

127

327

	(I)	(II)	(III)	(IV)	(V)
Reform_ey (Maj)	−1.219*	−0.746	−1.457	−5.089	−1.466**
	(0.664)	(0.724)	(4.366)	(3.276)	(0.669)
Reform_ey (nonMaj)	−1.439**	−1.807***	−1.960***	−2.167*	−3.793***
	(0.558)	(0.669)	(0.524)	(1.185)	(0.721)
Reform_term (Maj)	0.208	0.527	4.321	−10.321	−0.200
	(1.447)	(1.728)	(3.265)	(7.640)	(1.369)
Reform_term (nonMaj)	−0.388	−0.391	−0.457	−0.553	−0.515
	(0.559)	(0.574)	(1.032)	(1.224)	(0.555)
Initial level regulation	−3.287	−0.427	−0.874	−0.904	−7.061*
	(3.100)	(4.655)	(7.401)	(3.032)	(3.628)
Growth_ey	0.505**	0.351	0.459*	0.489**	0.554**
	(0.211)	(0.247)	(0.263)	(0.204)	(0.226)
Growth_term	0.428	0.694*	1.206**	0.448	0.342
	(0.325)	(0.360)	(0.568)	(0.315)	(0.337)
Advanced economy	3.439***		4.880	2.759**	3.677***
	(1.248)		(3.018)	(1.328)	(1.284)
New democracies	0.789	−0.030	1.488	1.263	0.898
	(1.109)	(1.962)	(2.285)	(1.142)	(1.045)
Majoritarian system	1.906	2.623	−2.089	2.690**	1.265
	(1.660)	(4.856)	(3.501)	(1.200)	(1.545)
Lagged vote share	−0.145	−0.242**	0.001	−0.126	−0.144
	(0.094)	(0.094)	(0.123)	(0.095)	(0.094)
Total effect (Maj)	−1.011	−0.219	2.864	−15.410	−1.666
Total effect (nonMaj)	−1.827	−2.198	−2.417	−2.720	−4.308
F-test: difference	0.17	0.69	1.64	2.34	2.30
Kleibergen–Paap rk Wald F statistic					32.90
Stock–Yogo 10% critical value					16.38
(Uncentered) R²	0.10	0.10	0.15	0.10	0.26
Observations	327	327	127	327	327

Table 18.

Open in new tab

The effect of reforms on electoral outcomes—majoritarian versus non-majoritarian systems.

	(I)	(II)	(III)	(IV)	(V)
	OLS	OLS w/FE	Ex. elections	IMF	IV
Reform_ey (Maj)	−1.219*	−0.746	−1.457	−5.089	−1.466**
	(0.664)	(0.724)	(4.366)	(3.276)	(0.669)
Reform_ey (nonMaj)	−1.439**	−1.807***	−1.960***	−2.167*	−3.793***
	(0.558)	(0.669)	(0.524)	(1.185)	(0.721)
Reform_term (Maj)	0.208	0.527	4.321	−10.321	−0.200
	(1.447)	(1.728)	(3.265)	(7.640)	(1.369)
Reform_term (nonMaj)	−0.388	−0.391	−0.457	−0.553	−0.515
	(0.559)	(0.574)	(1.032)	(1.224)	(0.555)
Initial level regulation	−3.287	−0.427	−0.874	−0.904	−7.061*
	(3.100)	(4.655)	(7.401)	(3.032)	(3.628)
Growth_ey	0.505**	0.351	0.459*	0.489**	0.554**
	(0.211)	(0.247)	(0.263)	(0.204)	(0.226)
Growth_term	0.428	0.694*	1.206**	0.448	0.342
	(0.325)	(0.360)	(0.568)	(0.315)	(0.337)
Advanced economy	3.439***		4.880	2.759**	3.677***
	(1.248)		(3.018)	(1.328)	(1.284)
New democracies	0.789	−0.030	1.488	1.263	0.898
	(1.109)	(1.962)	(2.285)	(1.142)	(1.045)
Majoritarian system	1.906	2.623	−2.089	2.690**	1.265
	(1.660)	(4.856)	(3.501)	(1.200)	(1.545)
Lagged vote share	−0.145	−0.242**	0.001	−0.126	−0.144
	(0.094)	(0.094)	(0.123)	(0.095)	(0.094)
Total effect (Maj)	−1.011	−0.219	2.864	−15.410	−1.666
Total effect (nonMaj)	−1.827	−2.198	−2.417	−2.720	−4.308
F-test: difference	0.17	0.69	1.64	2.34	2.30
Kleibergen–Paap rk Wald F statistic					32.90
Stock–Yogo 10% critical value					16.38
(Uncentered) R²	0.10	0.10	0.15	0.10	0.26
Observations	327	327	127	327	327

	(I)	(II)	(III)	(IV)	(V)
	OLS	OLS w/FE	Ex. elections	IMF	IV
Reform_ey (Maj)	−1.219*	−0.746	−1.457	−5.089	−1.466**
	(0.664)	(0.724)	(4.366)	(3.276)	(0.669)
Reform_ey (nonMaj)	−1.439**	−1.807***	−1.960***	−2.167*	−3.793***
	(0.558)	(0.669)	(0.524)	(1.185)	(0.721)
Reform_term (Maj)	0.208	0.527	4.321	−10.321	−0.200
	(1.447)	(1.728)	(3.265)	(7.640)	(1.369)
Reform_term (nonMaj)	−0.388	−0.391	−0.457	−0.553	−0.515
	(0.559)	(0.574)	(1.032)	(1.224)	(0.555)
Initial level regulation	−3.287	−0.427	−0.874	−0.904	−7.061*
	(3.100)	(4.655)	(7.401)	(3.032)	(3.628)
Growth_ey	0.505**	0.351	0.459*	0.489**	0.554**
	(0.211)	(0.247)	(0.263)	(0.204)	(0.226)
Growth_term	0.428	0.694*	1.206**	0.448	0.342
	(0.325)	(0.360)	(0.568)	(0.315)	(0.337)
Advanced economy	3.439***		4.880	2.759**	3.677***
	(1.248)		(3.018)	(1.328)	(1.284)
New democracies	0.789	−0.030	1.488	1.263	0.898
	(1.109)	(1.962)	(2.285)	(1.142)	(1.045)
Majoritarian system	1.906	2.623	−2.089	2.690**	1.265
	(1.660)	(4.856)	(3.501)	(1.200)	(1.545)
Lagged vote share	−0.145	−0.242**	0.001	−0.126	−0.144
	(0.094)	(0.094)	(0.123)	(0.095)	(0.094)
Total effect (Maj)	−1.011	−0.219	2.864	−15.410	−1.666
Total effect (nonMaj)	−1.827	−2.198	−2.417	−2.720	−4.308
F-test: difference	0.17	0.69	1.64	2.34	2.30
Kleibergen–Paap rk Wald F statistic					32.90
Stock–Yogo 10% critical value					16.38
(Uncentered) R²	0.10	0.10	0.15	0.10	0.26
Observations	327	327	127	327	327

Notes: The dependent variable is the change in the incumbent party's vote share. Reform_ey and Reform_term denote reforms in the election year and in the rest of the incumbent leader's term, respectively. Estimates based on equation (6). Standard deviations based on robust standard errors are in parentheses. *p < 0.1, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01.

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