Table 17. Open in new tab The effect of...

	(I)	(II)	(III)	(IV)	(V)
Reform_ey (New dem.)	−1.936***	−2.830***	−2.015***	−3.387***	−3.177***
	(0.612)	(0.751)	(0.577)	(1.100)	(0.675)
Reform_ey (Old dem.)	−0.765	−0.781	−0.927	−1.009	−0.806
	(0.503)	(0.480)	(1.960)	(1.846)	(0.490)
Reform_term (New dem.)	1.166	0.890	0.916	1.264*	0.941
	(0.769)	(0.860)	(1.046)	(0.680)	(0.728)
Reform_term (Old dem.)	−1.124	−0.901	−1.984	−6.419**	−1.178*
	(0.724)	(0.706)	(1.619)	(2.934)	(0.706)
Initial level regulation	−3.801	−0.173	−2.298	−0.626	−4.603
	(3.114)	(4.690)	(7.505)	(2.944)	(3.125)
Growth_ey	0.531**	0.414	0.465	0.556***	0.554***
	(0.208)	(0.250)	(0.278)	(0.199)	(0.213)
Growth_term	0.346	0.599*	1.060*	0.343	0.303
	(0.314)	(0.346)	(0.581)	(0.305)	(0.309)
Advanced economy	3.596***		5.209*	2.296*	3.622***
	(1.212)		(2.846)	(1.337)	(1.196)
New democracies	−0.141	−0.226	0.197	0.146	0.536
	(1.555)	(2.277)	(2.778)	(1.230)	(1.519)
Majoritarian system	2.219**	4.144	0.449	1.843*	2.176**
	(0.924)	(4.108)	(2.373)	(0.990)	(0.912)
Lagged vote share	−0.150	−0.249***	−0.024	−0.139	−0.144
	(0.093)	(0.092)	(0.129)	(0.091)	(0.091)
Total effect (New dem.)	−0.770	−1.940	−1.099	−2.123	−2.236
Total effect (Old dem.)	−1.889	−1.682	−2.911	−7.428	−1.984
F-test: difference	0.55	0.03	0.38	2.33	0.03
Kleibergen–Paap rk Wald F statistic					44.64
Stock–Yogo 10% critical value					16.38
(Uncentered) R²	0.11	0.11	0.15	0.12	0.27
Observations	327	327	127	327	327

(I)

(II)

(III)

(IV)

(V)

OLS

OLS w/FE

Ex. elections

IMF

Reform_ey (New dem.)

−1.936***

−2.830***

−2.015***

−3.387***

−3.177***

(0.612)

(0.751)

(0.577)

(1.100)

(0.675)

Reform_ey (Old dem.)

−0.765

−0.781

−0.927

−1.009

−0.806

(0.503)

(0.480)

(1.960)

(1.846)

(0.490)

Reform_term (New dem.)

1.166

0.890

0.916

1.264*

0.941

(0.769)

(0.860)

(1.046)

(0.680)

(0.728)

Reform_term (Old dem.)

−1.124

−0.901

−1.984

−6.419**

−1.178*

(0.724)

(0.706)

(1.619)

(2.934)

(0.706)

Initial level regulation

−3.801

−0.173

−2.298

−0.626

−4.603

(3.114)

(4.690)

(7.505)

(2.944)

(3.125)

Growth_ey

0.531**

0.414

0.465

0.556***

0.554***

(0.208)

(0.250)

(0.278)

(0.199)

(0.213)

Growth_term

0.346

0.599*

1.060*

0.343

0.303

(0.314)

(0.346)

(0.581)

(0.305)

(0.309)

Advanced economy

3.596***

5.209*

2.296*

3.622***

(1.212)

(2.846)

(1.337)

(1.196)

New democracies

−0.141

−0.226

0.197

0.146

0.536

(1.555)

(2.277)

(2.778)

(1.230)

(1.519)

Majoritarian system

2.219**

4.144

0.449

1.843*

2.176**

(0.924)

(4.108)

(2.373)

(0.990)

(0.912)

Lagged vote share

−0.150

−0.249***

−0.024

−0.139

−0.144

(0.093)

(0.092)

(0.129)

(0.091)

Total effect (New dem.)

−0.770

−1.940

−1.099

−2.123

−2.236

Total effect (Old dem.)

−1.889

−1.682

−2.911

−7.428

−1.984

F-test: difference

0.55

0.03

0.38

2.33

0.03

Kleibergen–Paap rk Wald F statistic

44.64

Stock–Yogo 10% critical value

16.38

(Uncentered) R²

0.11

0.15

0.12

0.27

Observations

327

127

327

	(I)	(II)	(III)	(IV)	(V)
Reform_ey (New dem.)	−1.936***	−2.830***	−2.015***	−3.387***	−3.177***
	(0.612)	(0.751)	(0.577)	(1.100)	(0.675)
Reform_ey (Old dem.)	−0.765	−0.781	−0.927	−1.009	−0.806
	(0.503)	(0.480)	(1.960)	(1.846)	(0.490)
Reform_term (New dem.)	1.166	0.890	0.916	1.264*	0.941
	(0.769)	(0.860)	(1.046)	(0.680)	(0.728)
Reform_term (Old dem.)	−1.124	−0.901	−1.984	−6.419**	−1.178*
	(0.724)	(0.706)	(1.619)	(2.934)	(0.706)
Initial level regulation	−3.801	−0.173	−2.298	−0.626	−4.603
	(3.114)	(4.690)	(7.505)	(2.944)	(3.125)
Growth_ey	0.531**	0.414	0.465	0.556***	0.554***
	(0.208)	(0.250)	(0.278)	(0.199)	(0.213)
Growth_term	0.346	0.599*	1.060*	0.343	0.303
	(0.314)	(0.346)	(0.581)	(0.305)	(0.309)
Advanced economy	3.596***		5.209*	2.296*	3.622***
	(1.212)		(2.846)	(1.337)	(1.196)
New democracies	−0.141	−0.226	0.197	0.146	0.536
	(1.555)	(2.277)	(2.778)	(1.230)	(1.519)
Majoritarian system	2.219**	4.144	0.449	1.843*	2.176**
	(0.924)	(4.108)	(2.373)	(0.990)	(0.912)
Lagged vote share	−0.150	−0.249***	−0.024	−0.139	−0.144
	(0.093)	(0.092)	(0.129)	(0.091)	(0.091)
Total effect (New dem.)	−0.770	−1.940	−1.099	−2.123	−2.236
Total effect (Old dem.)	−1.889	−1.682	−2.911	−7.428	−1.984
F-test: difference	0.55	0.03	0.38	2.33	0.03
Kleibergen–Paap rk Wald F statistic					44.64
Stock–Yogo 10% critical value					16.38
(Uncentered) R²	0.11	0.11	0.15	0.12	0.27
Observations	327	327	127	327	327

Table 17.

Open in new tab

The effect of reforms on electoral outcomes—new versus old democracy.

	(I)	(II)	(III)	(IV)	(V)
	OLS	OLS w/FE	Ex. elections	IMF	IV
Reform_ey (New dem.)	−1.936***	−2.830***	−2.015***	−3.387***	−3.177***
	(0.612)	(0.751)	(0.577)	(1.100)	(0.675)
Reform_ey (Old dem.)	−0.765	−0.781	−0.927	−1.009	−0.806
	(0.503)	(0.480)	(1.960)	(1.846)	(0.490)
Reform_term (New dem.)	1.166	0.890	0.916	1.264*	0.941
	(0.769)	(0.860)	(1.046)	(0.680)	(0.728)
Reform_term (Old dem.)	−1.124	−0.901	−1.984	−6.419**	−1.178*
	(0.724)	(0.706)	(1.619)	(2.934)	(0.706)
Initial level regulation	−3.801	−0.173	−2.298	−0.626	−4.603
	(3.114)	(4.690)	(7.505)	(2.944)	(3.125)
Growth_ey	0.531**	0.414	0.465	0.556***	0.554***
	(0.208)	(0.250)	(0.278)	(0.199)	(0.213)
Growth_term	0.346	0.599*	1.060*	0.343	0.303
	(0.314)	(0.346)	(0.581)	(0.305)	(0.309)
Advanced economy	3.596***		5.209*	2.296*	3.622***
	(1.212)		(2.846)	(1.337)	(1.196)
New democracies	−0.141	−0.226	0.197	0.146	0.536
	(1.555)	(2.277)	(2.778)	(1.230)	(1.519)
Majoritarian system	2.219**	4.144	0.449	1.843*	2.176**
	(0.924)	(4.108)	(2.373)	(0.990)	(0.912)
Lagged vote share	−0.150	−0.249***	−0.024	−0.139	−0.144
	(0.093)	(0.092)	(0.129)	(0.091)	(0.091)
Total effect (New dem.)	−0.770	−1.940	−1.099	−2.123	−2.236
Total effect (Old dem.)	−1.889	−1.682	−2.911	−7.428	−1.984
F-test: difference	0.55	0.03	0.38	2.33	0.03
Kleibergen–Paap rk Wald F statistic					44.64
Stock–Yogo 10% critical value					16.38
(Uncentered) R²	0.11	0.11	0.15	0.12	0.27
Observations	327	327	127	327	327

	(I)	(II)	(III)	(IV)	(V)
	OLS	OLS w/FE	Ex. elections	IMF	IV
Reform_ey (New dem.)	−1.936***	−2.830***	−2.015***	−3.387***	−3.177***
	(0.612)	(0.751)	(0.577)	(1.100)	(0.675)
Reform_ey (Old dem.)	−0.765	−0.781	−0.927	−1.009	−0.806
	(0.503)	(0.480)	(1.960)	(1.846)	(0.490)
Reform_term (New dem.)	1.166	0.890	0.916	1.264*	0.941
	(0.769)	(0.860)	(1.046)	(0.680)	(0.728)
Reform_term (Old dem.)	−1.124	−0.901	−1.984	−6.419**	−1.178*
	(0.724)	(0.706)	(1.619)	(2.934)	(0.706)
Initial level regulation	−3.801	−0.173	−2.298	−0.626	−4.603
	(3.114)	(4.690)	(7.505)	(2.944)	(3.125)
Growth_ey	0.531**	0.414	0.465	0.556***	0.554***
	(0.208)	(0.250)	(0.278)	(0.199)	(0.213)
Growth_term	0.346	0.599*	1.060*	0.343	0.303
	(0.314)	(0.346)	(0.581)	(0.305)	(0.309)
Advanced economy	3.596***		5.209*	2.296*	3.622***
	(1.212)		(2.846)	(1.337)	(1.196)
New democracies	−0.141	−0.226	0.197	0.146	0.536
	(1.555)	(2.277)	(2.778)	(1.230)	(1.519)
Majoritarian system	2.219**	4.144	0.449	1.843*	2.176**
	(0.924)	(4.108)	(2.373)	(0.990)	(0.912)
Lagged vote share	−0.150	−0.249***	−0.024	−0.139	−0.144
	(0.093)	(0.092)	(0.129)	(0.091)	(0.091)
Total effect (New dem.)	−0.770	−1.940	−1.099	−2.123	−2.236
Total effect (Old dem.)	−1.889	−1.682	−2.911	−7.428	−1.984
F-test: difference	0.55	0.03	0.38	2.33	0.03
Kleibergen–Paap rk Wald F statistic					44.64
Stock–Yogo 10% critical value					16.38
(Uncentered) R²	0.11	0.11	0.15	0.12	0.27
Observations	327	327	127	327	327

Notes: The dependent variable is the change in the incumbent party's vote share. Reform_ey and Reform_term denote reforms in the election year and in the rest of the incumbent leader's term, respectively. Estimates based on equation (6). Standard deviations based on robust standard errors are in parentheses. *p < 0.1, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01.

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