Table 1 Open in new tab Descriptive...

Characteristic

Sunak
(N = 154)

Johnson
(N = 65)

Mordaunt
(N = 26)

Unknown
(N = 113)

Overall
(N = 358)

2019 majority (%)

0.27
(0.15, 0.39)

0.27
(0.12, 0.36)

0.33
(0.09, 0.40)

0.30
(0.13, 0.39)

0.29
(0.13, 0.39)

Red wall

Not red wall

147 (95%)

53 (82%)

25 (96%)

105 (93%)

330 (92%)

Red wall

7 (4.5%)

12 (18%)

1 (3.8%)

8 (7.1%)

28 (7.8%)

Brexit vote in constituency

54 (50, 58)

60 (57, 64)

60 (55, 62)

57 (52, 63)

57 (51, 62)

Johnson confidence vote by ministerial status

Backbencher: Confidence

24 (16%)

32 (49%)

2 (7.7%)

29 (26%)

87 (24%)

Backbencher: No confidence

35 (23%)

0 (0%)

9 (35%)

15 (13%)

59 (16%)

Backbencher: Unknown

55 (36%)

13 (20%)

12 (46%)

38 (34%)

118 (33%)

Minister: Confidence

35 (23%)

18 (28%)

3 (12%)

27 (24%)

83 (23%)

Minister: Unknown

5 (3.2%)

2 (3.1%)

0 (0%)

4 (3.5%)

11 (3.1%)

Rebellion frequency

Frequently

14 (9.1%)

5 (7.7%)

3 (12%)

8 (7.1%)

30 (8.4%)

Occasionally

40 (26%)

19 (29%)

16 (62%)

30 (27%)

105 (29%)

Never

100 (65%)

41 (63%)

7 (27%)

75 (66%)

223 (62%)

EU referendum position

Leave

64 (42%)

52 (80%)

13 (50%)

67 (59%)

196 (55%)

Remain

85 (55%)

9 (14%)

11 (42%)

38 (34%)

143 (40%)

Unknown

5 (3.2%)

4 (6.2%)

2 (7.7%)

8 (7.1%)

19 (5.3%)

ERG

29 (19%)

36 (55%)

6 (23%)

36 (32%)

107 (30%)

Socially liberal

80 (52%)

12 (18%)

10 (38%)

39 (35%)

141 (39%)

Socially conservative

7 (4.5%)

11 (17%)

0 (0%)

12 (11%)

30 (8.4%)

Levelling up supporter

64 (42%)

38 (58%)

12 (46%)

59 (52%)

173 (48%)

Conservative Environment Network

53 (34%)

12 (18%)

10 (38%)

27 (24%)

102 (28%)

Female

29 (19%)

17 (26%)

10 (38%)

32 (28%)

88 (25%)

Ethnic minority

11 (7.1%)

5 (7.7%)

0 (0%)

5 (4.4%)

21 (5.9%)

LGBT

9 (5.8%)

4 (6.2%)

2 (7.7%)

9 (8.0%)

24 (6.7%)

Oxbridge

58 (38%)

6 (9.2%)

8 (31%)

25 (22%)

97 (27%)

Table 1

Open in new tab

Descriptive statistics of candidates’ support bases

Characteristic	Sunak (N = 154)	Johnson (N = 65)	Mordaunt (N = 26)	Unknown (N = 113)	Overall (N = 358)
2019 majority (%)	0.27 (0.15, 0.39)	0.27 (0.12, 0.36)	0.33 (0.09, 0.40)	0.30 (0.13, 0.39)	0.29 (0.13, 0.39)
Red wall
Not red wall	147 (95%)	53 (82%)	25 (96%)	105 (93%)	330 (92%)
Red wall	7 (4.5%)	12 (18%)	1 (3.8%)	8 (7.1%)	28 (7.8%)
Brexit vote in constituency	54 (50, 58)	60 (57, 64)	60 (55, 62)	57 (52, 63)	57 (51, 62)
Johnson confidence vote by ministerial status
Backbencher: Confidence	24 (16%)	32 (49%)	2 (7.7%)	29 (26%)	87 (24%)
Backbencher: No confidence	35 (23%)	0 (0%)	9 (35%)	15 (13%)	59 (16%)
Backbencher: Unknown	55 (36%)	13 (20%)	12 (46%)	38 (34%)	118 (33%)
Minister: Confidence	35 (23%)	18 (28%)	3 (12%)	27 (24%)	83 (23%)
Minister: Unknown	5 (3.2%)	2 (3.1%)	0 (0%)	4 (3.5%)	11 (3.1%)
Rebellion frequency
Frequently	14 (9.1%)	5 (7.7%)	3 (12%)	8 (7.1%)	30 (8.4%)
Occasionally	40 (26%)	19 (29%)	16 (62%)	30 (27%)	105 (29%)
Never	100 (65%)	41 (63%)	7 (27%)	75 (66%)	223 (62%)
EU referendum position
Leave	64 (42%)	52 (80%)	13 (50%)	67 (59%)	196 (55%)
Remain	85 (55%)	9 (14%)	11 (42%)	38 (34%)	143 (40%)
Unknown	5 (3.2%)	4 (6.2%)	2 (7.7%)	8 (7.1%)	19 (5.3%)
ERG	29 (19%)	36 (55%)	6 (23%)	36 (32%)	107 (30%)
Socially liberal	80 (52%)	12 (18%)	10 (38%)	39 (35%)	141 (39%)
Socially conservative	7 (4.5%)	11 (17%)	0 (0%)	12 (11%)	30 (8.4%)
Levelling up supporter	64 (42%)	38 (58%)	12 (46%)	59 (52%)	173 (48%)
Conservative Environment Network	53 (34%)	12 (18%)	10 (38%)	27 (24%)	102 (28%)
Female	29 (19%)	17 (26%)	10 (38%)	32 (28%)	88 (25%)
Ethnic minority	11 (7.1%)	5 (7.7%)	0 (0%)	5 (4.4%)	21 (5.9%)
LGBT	9 (5.8%)	4 (6.2%)	2 (7.7%)	9 (8.0%)	24 (6.7%)
Oxbridge	58 (38%)	6 (9.2%)	8 (31%)	25 (22%)	97 (27%)

Characteristic	Sunak (N = 154)	Johnson (N = 65)	Mordaunt (N = 26)	Unknown (N = 113)	Overall (N = 358)
2019 majority (%)	0.27 (0.15, 0.39)	0.27 (0.12, 0.36)	0.33 (0.09, 0.40)	0.30 (0.13, 0.39)	0.29 (0.13, 0.39)
Red wall
Not red wall	147 (95%)	53 (82%)	25 (96%)	105 (93%)	330 (92%)
Red wall	7 (4.5%)	12 (18%)	1 (3.8%)	8 (7.1%)	28 (7.8%)
Brexit vote in constituency	54 (50, 58)	60 (57, 64)	60 (55, 62)	57 (52, 63)	57 (51, 62)
Johnson confidence vote by ministerial status
Backbencher: Confidence	24 (16%)	32 (49%)	2 (7.7%)	29 (26%)	87 (24%)
Backbencher: No confidence	35 (23%)	0 (0%)	9 (35%)	15 (13%)	59 (16%)
Backbencher: Unknown	55 (36%)	13 (20%)	12 (46%)	38 (34%)	118 (33%)
Minister: Confidence	35 (23%)	18 (28%)	3 (12%)	27 (24%)	83 (23%)
Minister: Unknown	5 (3.2%)	2 (3.1%)	0 (0%)	4 (3.5%)	11 (3.1%)
Rebellion frequency
Frequently	14 (9.1%)	5 (7.7%)	3 (12%)	8 (7.1%)	30 (8.4%)
Occasionally	40 (26%)	19 (29%)	16 (62%)	30 (27%)	105 (29%)
Never	100 (65%)	41 (63%)	7 (27%)	75 (66%)	223 (62%)
EU referendum position
Leave	64 (42%)	52 (80%)	13 (50%)	67 (59%)	196 (55%)
Remain	85 (55%)	9 (14%)	11 (42%)	38 (34%)	143 (40%)
Unknown	5 (3.2%)	4 (6.2%)	2 (7.7%)	8 (7.1%)	19 (5.3%)
ERG	29 (19%)	36 (55%)	6 (23%)	36 (32%)	107 (30%)
Socially liberal	80 (52%)	12 (18%)	10 (38%)	39 (35%)	141 (39%)
Socially conservative	7 (4.5%)	11 (17%)	0 (0%)	12 (11%)	30 (8.4%)
Levelling up supporter	64 (42%)	38 (58%)	12 (46%)	59 (52%)	173 (48%)
Conservative Environment Network	53 (34%)	12 (18%)	10 (38%)	27 (24%)	102 (28%)
Female	29 (19%)	17 (26%)	10 (38%)	32 (28%)	88 (25%)
Ethnic minority	11 (7.1%)	5 (7.7%)	0 (0%)	5 (4.4%)	21 (5.9%)
LGBT	9 (5.8%)	4 (6.2%)	2 (7.7%)	9 (8.0%)	24 (6.7%)
Oxbridge	58 (38%)	6 (9.2%)	8 (31%)	25 (22%)	97 (27%)

This Feature Is Available To Subscribers Only