Table 2. Open in new tab Priority...

Table 2.

Priority Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTD) Modeling Questions Identified by the World Health Organization, the NTD Modelling Consortium, and Other Stakeholders

Modeling the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic

Examples:

What is the impact of reduced availability of medicines that resulted in missed rounds and/or reduced coverage of MDA campaigns?
What are the best strategies to mitigate the impact of the above?
Should planned impact surveys go ahead in light of variable coverage levels?

Incorporating real-life challenges

Start and stop decisions

Examples:

What are appropriate levels of infection prevalence (including seroprevalence) for recommending the start of MDA campaigns?
When, where, and how should treatment be expanded to nonpriority groups?
What is the optimal number and frequency of MDA rounds, and how do these vary by transmission setting?
What are appropriate levels of infection prevalence (including seroprevalence and infection prevalence in vectors) to stop interventions?
What will happen if and when vector control campaigns are discontinued?
What are the optimal ways to handle uncertainty (including in start/stop thresholds)?

Never treatment

Examples:

What is the impact of a proportion of the population never receiving treatment on the achievement of the 2030 targets?
How does the impact of never treatment vary across different diseases and settings?

Cost

Examples:

How should costs of different interventions be included into models?
How can models be used to estimate the cost-effectiveness of attaining “intensified control” targets in specific countries and regions?
How can models be used to identify appropriate, cost-effective packages of interventions?

Projecting the impact of new interventions

Examples:

What is the impact of novel drugs and/or vaccines on transmission and control, and how does it change across settings, including when used alone vs in combination with existing strategies?
What is the impact of alternative treatment regimes, including changes to treatment frequency?

Incorporating coinfections

Examples:

Can models be expanded to account for coinfections?
How can models be used to help delineate optimal interventions in settings with multiple diseases?
How can models help design and evaluate optimal test-and-treat and test-and-not-treat strategies?

Monitoring, surveillance, and evaluation

Examples:

Are different NTD programs on track to achieve 2030 targets?
Should interventions be intensified or additional measures be implemented to reach 2030 targets?
What is needed to generate contemporary rigorous estimates of the global, regional, and national burden of disease for the various NTDs? Are burden estimates needed for surveillance and health planning?
What is performance and cost-effectiveness of different post-validation or post-elimination surveillance strategies?
How can modeling help to define operational “intensified control” targets?
Can models help define the appropriate methods and targets for monitoring and evaluation?
What is the potential value of integrated surveillance using methods such as molecular xeno-monitoring?

Modeling the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic

Examples:

What is the impact of reduced availability of medicines that resulted in missed rounds and/or reduced coverage of MDA campaigns?
What are the best strategies to mitigate the impact of the above?
Should planned impact surveys go ahead in light of variable coverage levels?

Incorporating real-life challenges

Start and stop decisions

Examples:

What are appropriate levels of infection prevalence (including seroprevalence) for recommending the start of MDA campaigns?
When, where, and how should treatment be expanded to nonpriority groups?
What is the optimal number and frequency of MDA rounds, and how do these vary by transmission setting?
What are appropriate levels of infection prevalence (including seroprevalence and infection prevalence in vectors) to stop interventions?
What will happen if and when vector control campaigns are discontinued?
What are the optimal ways to handle uncertainty (including in start/stop thresholds)?

Never treatment

Examples:

What is the impact of a proportion of the population never receiving treatment on the achievement of the 2030 targets?
How does the impact of never treatment vary across different diseases and settings?

Cost

Examples:

How should costs of different interventions be included into models?
How can models be used to estimate the cost-effectiveness of attaining “intensified control” targets in specific countries and regions?
How can models be used to identify appropriate, cost-effective packages of interventions?

Projecting the impact of new interventions

Examples:

What is the impact of novel drugs and/or vaccines on transmission and control, and how does it change across settings, including when used alone vs in combination with existing strategies?
What is the impact of alternative treatment regimes, including changes to treatment frequency?

Incorporating coinfections

Examples:

Can models be expanded to account for coinfections?
How can models be used to help delineate optimal interventions in settings with multiple diseases?
How can models help design and evaluate optimal test-and-treat and test-and-not-treat strategies?

Monitoring, surveillance, and evaluation

Examples:

Are different NTD programs on track to achieve 2030 targets?
Should interventions be intensified or additional measures be implemented to reach 2030 targets?
What is needed to generate contemporary rigorous estimates of the global, regional, and national burden of disease for the various NTDs? Are burden estimates needed for surveillance and health planning?
What is performance and cost-effectiveness of different post-validation or post-elimination surveillance strategies?
How can modeling help to define operational “intensified control” targets?
Can models help define the appropriate methods and targets for monitoring and evaluation?
What is the potential value of integrated surveillance using methods such as molecular xeno-monitoring?

Abbreviations: COVID-19, coronavirus disease 2019; MDA, mass drug administration.

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