Direct and spillover effects of family planning policies on completed fertility.
| . | (1) . | (2) . | (3) . | (4) . | (5) . | (6) . | (7) . | (8) . |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dependent variable . | Completed fertility . | |||||||
| Sample . | Han . | Minority . | ||||||
| . | . | . | . | Potentially heterogenous direct effect . | Other events . | |||
| Exposure (ER) | |$-0.239^{***}$| | |$-$|0.142 | |$-$|0.022 | |$-$|0.021 | |$-$|0.042 | |$-0.381^{*}$| | |$-0.412^{*}$| | 0.064 |
| (0.042) | (0.158) | (0.157) | (0.217) | (0.218) | (0.230) | (0.233) | (0.168) | |
| Han share |$\times$| Exposure (|$s_{rd}^H$| |$\times$| ER) | |$-0.208^{***}$| | |$-0.208^{***}$| | |$-0.212^{***}$| | |$-0.134^{***}$| | |$-0.183^{***}$| | |$-0.203^{***}$| | ||
| (0.043) | (0.044) | (0.044) | (0.044) | (0.067) | (0.044) | |||
| Baseline controls and fixed effects | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Additional controls | No | No | No | |$s^H_{rpc}$|ER | |$s^H_{rpc}$|ER | |$s^H_{rpc}$|ER | |$s^H_{rpc}$|ER | Famine |
| |$W_i$|ER | |$W_i$|ER | |$W_i$|ER | Send-down | |||||
| |$\bar{W}_{rd}$|ER | |$\bar{W}_{rd}$|ER | Cultural revolution | ||||||
| |$rank_{rd}$|ER | ||||||||
| Average policy effect, cohort 1945 | |$-$|0.8 births | |$-$|0.3 births | ||||||
| |$R^{2}$| | 0.234 | 0.173 | 0.173 | 0.173 | 0.173 | 0.174 | 0.174 | 0.173 |
| Number of clusters | 1,120 | 1,010 | 5,514 | 5,514 | 5,514 | 5,514 | 5,514 | 5,514 |
| Mean dependent variable | 4.561 | 5.075 | 5.075 | 5.075 | 5.075 | 5.075 | 5.075 | 5.075 |
| Observations | 785,479 | 58,887 | 58,887 | 58,887 | 58,887 | 58,887 | 58,887 | 58,887 |
| . | (1) . | (2) . | (3) . | (4) . | (5) . | (6) . | (7) . | (8) . |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dependent variable . | Completed fertility . | |||||||
| Sample . | Han . | Minority . | ||||||
| . | . | . | . | Potentially heterogenous direct effect . | Other events . | |||
| Exposure (ER) | |$-0.239^{***}$| | |$-$|0.142 | |$-$|0.022 | |$-$|0.021 | |$-$|0.042 | |$-0.381^{*}$| | |$-0.412^{*}$| | 0.064 |
| (0.042) | (0.158) | (0.157) | (0.217) | (0.218) | (0.230) | (0.233) | (0.168) | |
| Han share |$\times$| Exposure (|$s_{rd}^H$| |$\times$| ER) | |$-0.208^{***}$| | |$-0.208^{***}$| | |$-0.212^{***}$| | |$-0.134^{***}$| | |$-0.183^{***}$| | |$-0.203^{***}$| | ||
| (0.043) | (0.044) | (0.044) | (0.044) | (0.067) | (0.044) | |||
| Baseline controls and fixed effects | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Additional controls | No | No | No | |$s^H_{rpc}$|ER | |$s^H_{rpc}$|ER | |$s^H_{rpc}$|ER | |$s^H_{rpc}$|ER | Famine |
| |$W_i$|ER | |$W_i$|ER | |$W_i$|ER | Send-down | |||||
| |$\bar{W}_{rd}$|ER | |$\bar{W}_{rd}$|ER | Cultural revolution | ||||||
| |$rank_{rd}$|ER | ||||||||
| Average policy effect, cohort 1945 | |$-$|0.8 births | |$-$|0.3 births | ||||||
| |$R^{2}$| | 0.234 | 0.173 | 0.173 | 0.173 | 0.173 | 0.174 | 0.174 | 0.173 |
| Number of clusters | 1,120 | 1,010 | 5,514 | 5,514 | 5,514 | 5,514 | 5,514 | 5,514 |
| Mean dependent variable | 4.561 | 5.075 | 5.075 | 5.075 | 5.075 | 5.075 | 5.075 | 5.075 |
| Observations | 785,479 | 58,887 | 58,887 | 58,887 | 58,887 | 58,887 | 58,887 | 58,887 |
Note: *means significant at 10%, **significant at 5%, and ***significant at 1%.
1. Each column represents a separate regression. Robust standard errors in parentheses are clustered at the province-|$hukou$|-cohort level in columns (1) and (2), and at the prefecture-|$hukou$|-cohort level in columns (3)–(8).
2. ER is the expected fertility reduction to meet the birth quota set by family planning policies and is measured at the province-hukou-cohort level. |$s_{rd}^H$| is the share of Han in prefecture d holding hukou r.
3. Baseline controls: prefecture-hukou fixed effects, cohort fixed effects, province-hukou-specific cohort trends, individual-level controls, and province-level controls. Individual-level controls include dummy indicators of educational attainment and ethnic identity. Province-level controls include secondary school teachers per capita, health workers per capita, hospital beds per capita, logarithm of gross regional product per capita, and population density measured at age 25 and the interactions of these variables with provincial total fertility rates in 1969.
4. Additional controls: |$s^H_{rpc}$| denotes the share of Han in the province-hukou-cohort group. |$W_i$| includes dummy indicators of hukou status, literacy, and high school attainment. |$\bar{W}_{rd}$| includes the share of urban hukou holders in the prefecture as well as the literacy and high school graduation rates at the prefecture-hukou level. To construct |$rank_{rd}$|, we order the prefecture-hukou units within a province in terms of number of Han Chinese, and group them by quintile. See Online Appendix Tables G.1 and G.2 for coefficients on the additional controls and for details on how we constructed the exposure to other events (Famine, Send-Down, and Cultural Revolution).
5. The analysis is based on a sample of women born between 1926 and 1945 from the 1% sample of the 1990 Chinese census data.
6. The average policy effect for Han women born in 1945 is the product of the average exposure and the estimate from column (1) (|$3.3 \times (-0.24) = -0.8$|). The average policy effect for minority women born in 1945 is the product of the average local Han share, the average Han exposure, and the estimate from column (3) (|$0.47 \times 3.4 \times (-0.2)=-0.3$|).
Direct and spillover effects of family planning policies on completed fertility.
| . | (1) . | (2) . | (3) . | (4) . | (5) . | (6) . | (7) . | (8) . |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dependent variable . | Completed fertility . | |||||||
| Sample . | Han . | Minority . | ||||||
| . | . | . | . | Potentially heterogenous direct effect . | Other events . | |||
| Exposure (ER) | |$-0.239^{***}$| | |$-$|0.142 | |$-$|0.022 | |$-$|0.021 | |$-$|0.042 | |$-0.381^{*}$| | |$-0.412^{*}$| | 0.064 |
| (0.042) | (0.158) | (0.157) | (0.217) | (0.218) | (0.230) | (0.233) | (0.168) | |
| Han share |$\times$| Exposure (|$s_{rd}^H$| |$\times$| ER) | |$-0.208^{***}$| | |$-0.208^{***}$| | |$-0.212^{***}$| | |$-0.134^{***}$| | |$-0.183^{***}$| | |$-0.203^{***}$| | ||
| (0.043) | (0.044) | (0.044) | (0.044) | (0.067) | (0.044) | |||
| Baseline controls and fixed effects | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Additional controls | No | No | No | |$s^H_{rpc}$|ER | |$s^H_{rpc}$|ER | |$s^H_{rpc}$|ER | |$s^H_{rpc}$|ER | Famine |
| |$W_i$|ER | |$W_i$|ER | |$W_i$|ER | Send-down | |||||
| |$\bar{W}_{rd}$|ER | |$\bar{W}_{rd}$|ER | Cultural revolution | ||||||
| |$rank_{rd}$|ER | ||||||||
| Average policy effect, cohort 1945 | |$-$|0.8 births | |$-$|0.3 births | ||||||
| |$R^{2}$| | 0.234 | 0.173 | 0.173 | 0.173 | 0.173 | 0.174 | 0.174 | 0.173 |
| Number of clusters | 1,120 | 1,010 | 5,514 | 5,514 | 5,514 | 5,514 | 5,514 | 5,514 |
| Mean dependent variable | 4.561 | 5.075 | 5.075 | 5.075 | 5.075 | 5.075 | 5.075 | 5.075 |
| Observations | 785,479 | 58,887 | 58,887 | 58,887 | 58,887 | 58,887 | 58,887 | 58,887 |
| . | (1) . | (2) . | (3) . | (4) . | (5) . | (6) . | (7) . | (8) . |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dependent variable . | Completed fertility . | |||||||
| Sample . | Han . | Minority . | ||||||
| . | . | . | . | Potentially heterogenous direct effect . | Other events . | |||
| Exposure (ER) | |$-0.239^{***}$| | |$-$|0.142 | |$-$|0.022 | |$-$|0.021 | |$-$|0.042 | |$-0.381^{*}$| | |$-0.412^{*}$| | 0.064 |
| (0.042) | (0.158) | (0.157) | (0.217) | (0.218) | (0.230) | (0.233) | (0.168) | |
| Han share |$\times$| Exposure (|$s_{rd}^H$| |$\times$| ER) | |$-0.208^{***}$| | |$-0.208^{***}$| | |$-0.212^{***}$| | |$-0.134^{***}$| | |$-0.183^{***}$| | |$-0.203^{***}$| | ||
| (0.043) | (0.044) | (0.044) | (0.044) | (0.067) | (0.044) | |||
| Baseline controls and fixed effects | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Additional controls | No | No | No | |$s^H_{rpc}$|ER | |$s^H_{rpc}$|ER | |$s^H_{rpc}$|ER | |$s^H_{rpc}$|ER | Famine |
| |$W_i$|ER | |$W_i$|ER | |$W_i$|ER | Send-down | |||||
| |$\bar{W}_{rd}$|ER | |$\bar{W}_{rd}$|ER | Cultural revolution | ||||||
| |$rank_{rd}$|ER | ||||||||
| Average policy effect, cohort 1945 | |$-$|0.8 births | |$-$|0.3 births | ||||||
| |$R^{2}$| | 0.234 | 0.173 | 0.173 | 0.173 | 0.173 | 0.174 | 0.174 | 0.173 |
| Number of clusters | 1,120 | 1,010 | 5,514 | 5,514 | 5,514 | 5,514 | 5,514 | 5,514 |
| Mean dependent variable | 4.561 | 5.075 | 5.075 | 5.075 | 5.075 | 5.075 | 5.075 | 5.075 |
| Observations | 785,479 | 58,887 | 58,887 | 58,887 | 58,887 | 58,887 | 58,887 | 58,887 |
Note: *means significant at 10%, **significant at 5%, and ***significant at 1%.
1. Each column represents a separate regression. Robust standard errors in parentheses are clustered at the province-|$hukou$|-cohort level in columns (1) and (2), and at the prefecture-|$hukou$|-cohort level in columns (3)–(8).
2. ER is the expected fertility reduction to meet the birth quota set by family planning policies and is measured at the province-hukou-cohort level. |$s_{rd}^H$| is the share of Han in prefecture d holding hukou r.
3. Baseline controls: prefecture-hukou fixed effects, cohort fixed effects, province-hukou-specific cohort trends, individual-level controls, and province-level controls. Individual-level controls include dummy indicators of educational attainment and ethnic identity. Province-level controls include secondary school teachers per capita, health workers per capita, hospital beds per capita, logarithm of gross regional product per capita, and population density measured at age 25 and the interactions of these variables with provincial total fertility rates in 1969.
4. Additional controls: |$s^H_{rpc}$| denotes the share of Han in the province-hukou-cohort group. |$W_i$| includes dummy indicators of hukou status, literacy, and high school attainment. |$\bar{W}_{rd}$| includes the share of urban hukou holders in the prefecture as well as the literacy and high school graduation rates at the prefecture-hukou level. To construct |$rank_{rd}$|, we order the prefecture-hukou units within a province in terms of number of Han Chinese, and group them by quintile. See Online Appendix Tables G.1 and G.2 for coefficients on the additional controls and for details on how we constructed the exposure to other events (Famine, Send-Down, and Cultural Revolution).
5. The analysis is based on a sample of women born between 1926 and 1945 from the 1% sample of the 1990 Chinese census data.
6. The average policy effect for Han women born in 1945 is the product of the average exposure and the estimate from column (1) (|$3.3 \times (-0.24) = -0.8$|). The average policy effect for minority women born in 1945 is the product of the average local Han share, the average Han exposure, and the estimate from column (3) (|$0.47 \times 3.4 \times (-0.2)=-0.3$|).
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