Table 4. Open in new tab Effect of...

Term

Conservatives Est.

Conservatives CI

Liberals Est.

Liberals CI

Fixed effects

Intercept (Baseline on Day of Defeat)

γ₀₀

6.14

−25.10, 37.38

11.53

−2.90, 25.95

γ₀₁l

66.23*

8.13, 124.33

0.70

−21.82, 23.22]

γ₀₂f

22.79

−31.20, 76.78

14.61

−10.72, 39.94

γ₀₃f ∗ l

135.68*

22.48, 248.87

−15.69

−52.81, 21.42

γ₀₄id

30.52

−8.99, 70.04

13.66

−4.62, 31.95

γ₀₅id ∗ l

−30.47

−99.21, 38.28

−1.54

−29.23, 26.15

γ₀₆id ∗ f

−23.63

−88.60, 41.34

−6.76

−36.91, 23.39

γ₀₇id ∗ l ∗ f

−14.71

−146.51, 117.10

0.61

−44.30, 45.53

DaysToDefeat (Gradual Leading up to Day of Defeat)

γ₁₀

−0.06

−0.47, 0.34

0.12

−0.03, 0.27

γ₁₁l

1.68***

0.89, 2.47

−0.46***

−0.69, −0.22

γ₁₂f

−0.02

−0.70, 0.66

−0.07

−0.32, 0.19

γ₁₃f ∗ l

0.83

−0.78, 2.44

0.05

−0.34, 0.44

γ₁₄id

−0.07

−0.61, 0.46

−0.32**

−0.52, −0.13

γ₁₅id ∗ l

−3.01***

−3.93, −2.08

0.42**

0.13, 0.72

γ₁₆id ∗ f

0.16

−0.69, 1.00

0.24

−0.07, 0.55

γ₁₇id ∗ l ∗ f

1.00

−0.86, 2.86

−0.18

−0.66, 0.30

DefeatBinary (Transformational Starting on Day of Defeat)

γ₂₀

1.18

−8.98, 11.34

−2.07

−5.84, 1.71

γ₂₁l

21.22*

1.60, 40.84

2.87

−3.02, 8.75

γ₂₂f

4.80

−12.10, 21.70

−5.35

−11.76, 1.05

γ₂₃f ∗ l

−73.06***

−113.06, −33.06

5.52

−4.19, 15.23

γ₂₄id

−1.14

−14.39, 12.10

−0.16

−5.02, 4.70

γ₂₅id ∗ l

−22.58

−45.70, 0.53

1.18

−6.16, 8.52

γ₂₆id ∗ f

−2.87

−23.93, 18.19

5.56

−2.24, 13.35

γ₂₇id ∗ l ∗ f

28.72

−17.59, 75.04

−5.76

−17.64, 6.13

DaysSinceDefeat (Gradual Starting on Day of Defeat)

γ₃₀

−0.12

−0.51, 0.27

0.09

−0.06, 0.23

γ₃₁l

−1.59***

−2.34, −0.84

−0.16

−0.38, 0.07

γ₃₂f

−0.12

−0.76, 0.53

−0.05

−0.30, 0.19

γ₃₃f ∗ l

1.78*

0.25, 3.31

0.05

−0.32, 0.42

γ₃₄id

−0.35

−0.86, 0.16

0.07

−0.12, 0.25

γ₃₅id ∗ l

2.15***

1.26, 3.03

−0.29*

−0.57, −0.01

γ₃₆id ∗ f

−0.05

−0.86, 0.75

−0.25

−0.55, 0.05

γ₃₇iy ∗ l ∗ f

−2.72**

−4.49, -0.95

0.31

−0.14, 0.77

Random effects

std(u₀₀_i)

72.7

64.7, 81.5

34.7

31.3, 38.4

Model fit

AIC

126,184.3

127,801.4

BIC

126,434.5

128,058.8

Log-likelihood

−63,058.2

−63,866.7

Table 4.

Open in new tab

Effect of political defeat on political expression levels of male and female supporters of winning and losing campaigns who did and did not express a gendered identity

Term	Conservatives Est.	Conservatives CI	Liberals Est.	Liberals CI
Fixed effects
Intercept (Baseline on Day of Defeat)
γ₀₀	6.14	−25.10, 37.38	11.53	−2.90, 25.95
γ₀₁l	66.23*	8.13, 124.33	0.70	−21.82, 23.22]
γ₀₂f	22.79	−31.20, 76.78	14.61	−10.72, 39.94
γ₀₃f ∗ l	135.68*	22.48, 248.87	−15.69	−52.81, 21.42
γ₀₄id	30.52	−8.99, 70.04	13.66	−4.62, 31.95
γ₀₅id ∗ l	−30.47	−99.21, 38.28	−1.54	−29.23, 26.15
γ₀₆id ∗ f	−23.63	−88.60, 41.34	−6.76	−36.91, 23.39
γ₀₇id ∗ l ∗ f	−14.71	−146.51, 117.10	0.61	−44.30, 45.53
DaysToDefeat (Gradual Leading up to Day of Defeat)
γ₁₀	−0.06	−0.47, 0.34	0.12	−0.03, 0.27
γ₁₁l	1.68***	0.89, 2.47	−0.46***	−0.69, −0.22
γ₁₂f	−0.02	−0.70, 0.66	−0.07	−0.32, 0.19
γ₁₃f ∗ l	0.83	−0.78, 2.44	0.05	−0.34, 0.44
γ₁₄id	−0.07	−0.61, 0.46	−0.32**	−0.52, −0.13
γ₁₅id ∗ l	−3.01***	−3.93, −2.08	0.42**	0.13, 0.72
γ₁₆id ∗ f	0.16	−0.69, 1.00	0.24	−0.07, 0.55
γ₁₇id ∗ l ∗ f	1.00	−0.86, 2.86	−0.18	−0.66, 0.30
DefeatBinary (Transformational Starting on Day of Defeat)
γ₂₀	1.18	−8.98, 11.34	−2.07	−5.84, 1.71
γ₂₁l	21.22*	1.60, 40.84	2.87	−3.02, 8.75
γ₂₂f	4.80	−12.10, 21.70	−5.35	−11.76, 1.05
γ₂₃f ∗ l	−73.06***	−113.06, −33.06	5.52	−4.19, 15.23
γ₂₄id	−1.14	−14.39, 12.10	−0.16	−5.02, 4.70
γ₂₅id ∗ l	−22.58	−45.70, 0.53	1.18	−6.16, 8.52
γ₂₆id ∗ f	−2.87	−23.93, 18.19	5.56	−2.24, 13.35
γ₂₇id ∗ l ∗ f	28.72	−17.59, 75.04	−5.76	−17.64, 6.13
DaysSinceDefeat (Gradual Starting on Day of Defeat)
γ₃₀	−0.12	−0.51, 0.27	0.09	−0.06, 0.23
γ₃₁l	−1.59***	−2.34, −0.84	−0.16	−0.38, 0.07
γ₃₂f	−0.12	−0.76, 0.53	−0.05	−0.30, 0.19
γ₃₃f ∗ l	1.78*	0.25, 3.31	0.05	−0.32, 0.42
γ₃₄id	−0.35	−0.86, 0.16	0.07	−0.12, 0.25
γ₃₅id ∗ l	2.15***	1.26, 3.03	−0.29*	−0.57, −0.01
γ₃₆id ∗ f	−0.05	−0.86, 0.75	−0.25	−0.55, 0.05
γ₃₇iy ∗ l ∗ f	−2.72**	−4.49, -0.95	0.31	−0.14, 0.77
Random effects
std(u₀₀_i)	72.7	64.7, 81.5	34.7	31.3, 38.4
Model fit
AIC	126,184.3		127,801.4
BIC	126,434.5		128,058.8
Log-likelihood	−63,058.2		−63,866.7

Term	Conservatives Est.	Conservatives CI	Liberals Est.	Liberals CI
Fixed effects
Intercept (Baseline on Day of Defeat)
γ₀₀	6.14	−25.10, 37.38	11.53	−2.90, 25.95
γ₀₁l	66.23*	8.13, 124.33	0.70	−21.82, 23.22]
γ₀₂f	22.79	−31.20, 76.78	14.61	−10.72, 39.94
γ₀₃f ∗ l	135.68*	22.48, 248.87	−15.69	−52.81, 21.42
γ₀₄id	30.52	−8.99, 70.04	13.66	−4.62, 31.95
γ₀₅id ∗ l	−30.47	−99.21, 38.28	−1.54	−29.23, 26.15
γ₀₆id ∗ f	−23.63	−88.60, 41.34	−6.76	−36.91, 23.39
γ₀₇id ∗ l ∗ f	−14.71	−146.51, 117.10	0.61	−44.30, 45.53
DaysToDefeat (Gradual Leading up to Day of Defeat)
γ₁₀	−0.06	−0.47, 0.34	0.12	−0.03, 0.27
γ₁₁l	1.68***	0.89, 2.47	−0.46***	−0.69, −0.22
γ₁₂f	−0.02	−0.70, 0.66	−0.07	−0.32, 0.19
γ₁₃f ∗ l	0.83	−0.78, 2.44	0.05	−0.34, 0.44
γ₁₄id	−0.07	−0.61, 0.46	−0.32**	−0.52, −0.13
γ₁₅id ∗ l	−3.01***	−3.93, −2.08	0.42**	0.13, 0.72
γ₁₆id ∗ f	0.16	−0.69, 1.00	0.24	−0.07, 0.55
γ₁₇id ∗ l ∗ f	1.00	−0.86, 2.86	−0.18	−0.66, 0.30
DefeatBinary (Transformational Starting on Day of Defeat)
γ₂₀	1.18	−8.98, 11.34	−2.07	−5.84, 1.71
γ₂₁l	21.22*	1.60, 40.84	2.87	−3.02, 8.75
γ₂₂f	4.80	−12.10, 21.70	−5.35	−11.76, 1.05
γ₂₃f ∗ l	−73.06***	−113.06, −33.06	5.52	−4.19, 15.23
γ₂₄id	−1.14	−14.39, 12.10	−0.16	−5.02, 4.70
γ₂₅id ∗ l	−22.58	−45.70, 0.53	1.18	−6.16, 8.52
γ₂₆id ∗ f	−2.87	−23.93, 18.19	5.56	−2.24, 13.35
γ₂₇id ∗ l ∗ f	28.72	−17.59, 75.04	−5.76	−17.64, 6.13
DaysSinceDefeat (Gradual Starting on Day of Defeat)
γ₃₀	−0.12	−0.51, 0.27	0.09	−0.06, 0.23
γ₃₁l	−1.59***	−2.34, −0.84	−0.16	−0.38, 0.07
γ₃₂f	−0.12	−0.76, 0.53	−0.05	−0.30, 0.19
γ₃₃f ∗ l	1.78*	0.25, 3.31	0.05	−0.32, 0.42
γ₃₄id	−0.35	−0.86, 0.16	0.07	−0.12, 0.25
γ₃₅id ∗ l	2.15***	1.26, 3.03	−0.29*	−0.57, −0.01
γ₃₆id ∗ f	−0.05	−0.86, 0.75	−0.25	−0.55, 0.05
γ₃₇iy ∗ l ∗ f	−2.72**	−4.49, -0.95	0.31	−0.14, 0.77
Random effects
std(u₀₀_i)	72.7	64.7, 81.5	34.7	31.3, 38.4
Model fit
AIC	126,184.3		127,801.4
BIC	126,434.5		128,058.8
Log-likelihood	−63,058.2		−63,866.7

Note: Coefficients using Equation (4). $N_{ConservativeModel} = 148$ ⁠, $N_{LiberalMode} = 189$ ⁠. Time is centered on the day of defeat. Est. = estimate; CI = 95% confidence interval; AIC = Akaike information criterion; BIC = Bayesian information criterion.

***

p < .001;

p < .01;

p < .05.

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