Table 2.
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Effect of political defeat on political expression levels of supporters of winning and losing campaigns

TermConservatives Est.Conservatives CILiberals Est.Liberals CI
Fixed effects
Intercept (Baseline on Day of Defeat)
 γ0028.66***13.22, 44.0924.91***18.07, 31.75
 γ01l71.95***44.88, 99.03−6.41−16.73, 3.91
DaysToDefeat (Gradual Leading up to Day of Defeat) DefeatBinary
 γ10−0.07−0.27, 0.13−0.05−0.12, 0.03
 γ11l−0.37*−0.72, −0.03−0.22***−0.33, −0.11
(Transformational Starting on Day of Defeat)
 γ201.66−3.36, 6.68−2.75**−4.55, −0.95
 γ21l−7.63−16.28, 1.024.25**1.52, 6.98
DaysSinceDefeat (Gradual Starting on Day of Defeat)
 γ30−0.40***−0.60, −0.210.03−0.04, 0.10
 γ31l0.00−0.33, 0.33−0.23***−0.33, −0.13
Random effects
 std(u00i)76.668.3, 85.935.331.9, 39.0
Model fit
 AIC126,434.6127,824.8
 BIC126,508.1127,900.5
 Log-likelihood−63,207.2−63,902.4
TermConservatives Est.Conservatives CILiberals Est.Liberals CI
Fixed effects
Intercept (Baseline on Day of Defeat)
 γ0028.66***13.22, 44.0924.91***18.07, 31.75
 γ01l71.95***44.88, 99.03−6.41−16.73, 3.91
DaysToDefeat (Gradual Leading up to Day of Defeat) DefeatBinary
 γ10−0.07−0.27, 0.13−0.05−0.12, 0.03
 γ11l−0.37*−0.72, −0.03−0.22***−0.33, −0.11
(Transformational Starting on Day of Defeat)
 γ201.66−3.36, 6.68−2.75**−4.55, −0.95
 γ21l−7.63−16.28, 1.024.25**1.52, 6.98
DaysSinceDefeat (Gradual Starting on Day of Defeat)
 γ30−0.40***−0.60, −0.210.03−0.04, 0.10
 γ31l0.00−0.33, 0.33−0.23***−0.33, −0.13
Random effects
 std(u00i)76.668.3, 85.935.331.9, 39.0
Model fit
 AIC126,434.6127,824.8
 BIC126,508.1127,900.5
 Log-likelihood−63,207.2−63,902.4

Note: Coefficients using Equation (2). NConservativeModel=148⁠, NLiberalMode=189⁠. Time is centered on the day of defeat. Est. = estimate; CI = 95% confidence interval; AIC = Akaike information criterion; BIC = Bayesian information criterion.

***

p < .001;

**

p < .01;

*

p < .05.

Table 2.
Open in new tab

Effect of political defeat on political expression levels of supporters of winning and losing campaigns

TermConservatives Est.Conservatives CILiberals Est.Liberals CI
Fixed effects
Intercept (Baseline on Day of Defeat)
 γ0028.66***13.22, 44.0924.91***18.07, 31.75
 γ01l71.95***44.88, 99.03−6.41−16.73, 3.91
DaysToDefeat (Gradual Leading up to Day of Defeat) DefeatBinary
 γ10−0.07−0.27, 0.13−0.05−0.12, 0.03
 γ11l−0.37*−0.72, −0.03−0.22***−0.33, −0.11
(Transformational Starting on Day of Defeat)
 γ201.66−3.36, 6.68−2.75**−4.55, −0.95
 γ21l−7.63−16.28, 1.024.25**1.52, 6.98
DaysSinceDefeat (Gradual Starting on Day of Defeat)
 γ30−0.40***−0.60, −0.210.03−0.04, 0.10
 γ31l0.00−0.33, 0.33−0.23***−0.33, −0.13
Random effects
 std(u00i)76.668.3, 85.935.331.9, 39.0
Model fit
 AIC126,434.6127,824.8
 BIC126,508.1127,900.5
 Log-likelihood−63,207.2−63,902.4
TermConservatives Est.Conservatives CILiberals Est.Liberals CI
Fixed effects
Intercept (Baseline on Day of Defeat)
 γ0028.66***13.22, 44.0924.91***18.07, 31.75
 γ01l71.95***44.88, 99.03−6.41−16.73, 3.91
DaysToDefeat (Gradual Leading up to Day of Defeat) DefeatBinary
 γ10−0.07−0.27, 0.13−0.05−0.12, 0.03
 γ11l−0.37*−0.72, −0.03−0.22***−0.33, −0.11
(Transformational Starting on Day of Defeat)
 γ201.66−3.36, 6.68−2.75**−4.55, −0.95
 γ21l−7.63−16.28, 1.024.25**1.52, 6.98
DaysSinceDefeat (Gradual Starting on Day of Defeat)
 γ30−0.40***−0.60, −0.210.03−0.04, 0.10
 γ31l0.00−0.33, 0.33−0.23***−0.33, −0.13
Random effects
 std(u00i)76.668.3, 85.935.331.9, 39.0
Model fit
 AIC126,434.6127,824.8
 BIC126,508.1127,900.5
 Log-likelihood−63,207.2−63,902.4

Note: Coefficients using Equation (2). NConservativeModel=148⁠, NLiberalMode=189⁠. Time is centered on the day of defeat. Est. = estimate; CI = 95% confidence interval; AIC = Akaike information criterion; BIC = Bayesian information criterion.

***

p < .001;

**

p < .01;

*

p < .05.

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