Table 2 Open in new tab Multinomial...

Variable

Labour

Conservative

Plaid Cymru

Other

Age

−0.122^**

0.325^***

−0.0869^*

−0.116^**

(0.06)

(0.05)

(0.06)

Female

−0.0419^*

−0.0109

0.000839

0.0520^***

(0.02)

Graduate

0.0907^***

−0.0563^**

−0.0213

−0.0131

(0.03)

(0.02)

Household income

Reference = Less than £15k

£15k–£29K

0.00938

0.0331

−0.0176

−0.0248

(0.03)

£30k–£49k

−0.000382

0.0577^*

−0.00635

−0.051

(0.04)

(0.03)

£50k–£99k

−0.0335

0.161^***

−0.0422

−0.0854^**

(0.04)

(0.03)

£100K+

−0.0861

0.109

0.00818

−0.0312

(0.08)

(0.10)

(0.08)

(0.07)

Speaks Welsh

−0.0871^*

−0.0531

0.119^***

0.0216

(0.05)

(0.03)

(0.05)

Born in England

−0.0314

−0.0521

0.0701^***

0.0135

(0.03)

(0.02)

(0.03)

Relative territorial identity

−0.0182

−0.306^***

0.452^***

−0.127^***

(0.05)

(0.04)

Working class (subjective)

0.0670^***

−0.0328

−0.0174

−0.0168

(0.02)

Remainer

0.195^***

−0.264^***

0.0273

0.0419^**

(0.02)

Welsh Gov handled lockdown well

0.223^***

−0.157^***

0.0225

−0.0887^***

(0.02)

Table 2

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Multinomial logit predicting constituency vote choice (base outcome = Labour), N = 2,966

Variable	Labour	Conservative	Plaid Cymru	Other
Age	−0.122^**	0.325^***	−0.0869^*	−0.116^**
Age	(0.06)	(0.06)	(0.05)	(0.06)
Female	−0.0419^*	−0.0109	0.000839	0.0520^***
Female	(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.02)
Graduate	0.0907^***	−0.0563^**	−0.0213	−0.0131
Graduate	(0.03)	(0.03)	(0.02)	(0.02)
Household income	Reference = Less than £15k
£15k–£29K	0.00938	0.0331	−0.0176	−0.0248
£15k–£29K	(0.03)	(0.03)	(0.03)	(0.03)
£30k–£49k	−0.000382	0.0577^*	−0.00635	−0.051
£30k–£49k	(0.04)	(0.03)	(0.03)	(0.03)
£50k–£99k	−0.0335	0.161^***	−0.0422	−0.0854^**
£50k–£99k	(0.04)	(0.04)	(0.03)	(0.03)
£100K+	−0.0861	0.109	0.00818	−0.0312
£100K+	(0.08)	(0.10)	(0.08)	(0.07)
Speaks Welsh	−0.0871^*	−0.0531	0.119^***	0.0216
Speaks Welsh	(0.05)	(0.05)	(0.03)	(0.05)
Born in England	−0.0314	−0.0521	0.0701^***	0.0135
Born in England	(0.03)	(0.03)	(0.02)	(0.03)
Relative territorial identity	−0.0182	−0.306^***	0.452^***	−0.127^***
Relative territorial identity	(0.05)	(0.05)	(0.04)	(0.04)
Working class (subjective)	0.0670^***	−0.0328	−0.0174	−0.0168
Working class (subjective)	(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.02)
Remainer	0.195^***	−0.264^***	0.0273	0.0419^**
Remainer	(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.02)
Welsh Gov handled lockdown well	0.223^***	−0.157^***	0.0225	−0.0887^***
Welsh Gov handled lockdown well	(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.02)

Variable	Labour	Conservative	Plaid Cymru	Other
Age	−0.122^**	0.325^***	−0.0869^*	−0.116^**
Age	(0.06)	(0.06)	(0.05)	(0.06)
Female	−0.0419^*	−0.0109	0.000839	0.0520^***
Female	(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.02)
Graduate	0.0907^***	−0.0563^**	−0.0213	−0.0131
Graduate	(0.03)	(0.03)	(0.02)	(0.02)
Household income	Reference = Less than £15k
£15k–£29K	0.00938	0.0331	−0.0176	−0.0248
£15k–£29K	(0.03)	(0.03)	(0.03)	(0.03)
£30k–£49k	−0.000382	0.0577^*	−0.00635	−0.051
£30k–£49k	(0.04)	(0.03)	(0.03)	(0.03)
£50k–£99k	−0.0335	0.161^***	−0.0422	−0.0854^**
£50k–£99k	(0.04)	(0.04)	(0.03)	(0.03)
£100K+	−0.0861	0.109	0.00818	−0.0312
£100K+	(0.08)	(0.10)	(0.08)	(0.07)
Speaks Welsh	−0.0871^*	−0.0531	0.119^***	0.0216
Speaks Welsh	(0.05)	(0.05)	(0.03)	(0.05)
Born in England	−0.0314	−0.0521	0.0701^***	0.0135
Born in England	(0.03)	(0.03)	(0.02)	(0.03)
Relative territorial identity	−0.0182	−0.306^***	0.452^***	−0.127^***
Relative territorial identity	(0.05)	(0.05)	(0.04)	(0.04)
Working class (subjective)	0.0670^***	−0.0328	−0.0174	−0.0168
Working class (subjective)	(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.02)
Remainer	0.195^***	−0.264^***	0.0273	0.0419^**
Remainer	(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.02)
Welsh Gov handled lockdown well	0.223^***	−0.157^***	0.0225	−0.0887^***
Welsh Gov handled lockdown well	(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.02)

Results presented as marginal effects for ease of interpretation. Effect size should be interpreted as probability of voting for a party for a given person holding all other X at their mean. Standard errors in parentheses.

Levels of significance:

***

p = 99%;

p = 95%;

p = 90%.

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