Table 4. Open in new tab The effect of...

	Home	Car	Big item	Any
Posterior \|$i - E\pi$\|	\|$-$\|0.04	\|$-$\|1.06^^	\|$-$\|1.32^^^*	\|$-$\|1.33^*
	(0.10)	(0.41)	(0.41)	(0.72)
	[\|$-$\|0.217, 0.127]	[\|$-$\|1.746, \|$-$\|0.382]	[\|$-$\|1.995, \|$-$\|0.645]	[\|$-$\|2.525, \|$-$\|0.141]
Plan to buy (pre-treatment)	3.73^^^*	7.39^^^*	3.73^^^*	8.64^^^*
	(1.18)	(1.61)	(1.40)	(1.48)
Prior \|$i - E\pi$\|	\|$-$\|0.01	0.23^^^*	0.22^^^*	0.20
	(0.02)	(0.08)	(0.07)	(0.13)
Female	0.46^^^*	0.58	0.58	0.91
	(0.10)	(0.53)	(0.54)	(0.81)
Age	\|$-$\|0.06	\|$-$\|0.28^*	\|$-$\|0.13	\|$-$\|0.37^*
	(0.05)	(0.15)	(0.14)	(0.20)
Age\|$^{2}$\|	0.00	0.00^*	0.00	0.00^*
	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)
Have child	\|$-$\|0.05	1.18	−0.81	\|$-$\|0.11
	(0.33)	(1.05)	(0.95)	(1.54)
HH head education: high school	\|$-$\|0.05	0.45	\|$-$\|1.24	\|$-$\|2.17
	(0.15)	(0.90)	(0.89)	(1.40)
HH head education: some college	0.06	\|$-$\|0.83	\|$-$\|1.03	\|$-$\|2.95^^
	(0.15)	(0.76)	(0.82)	(1.27)
HH head education: college or more	0.54^^	0.13	\|$-$\|0.77	\|$-$\|1.56
	(0.23)	(0.87)	(0.81)	(1.35)
ln(household income)	\|$-$\|0.00	0.01^*	0.00	0.01^^
	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)
Household size	0.01	\|$-$\|0.02	0.49^*	0.42
	(0.07)	(0.27)	(0.30)	(0.48)
Observations	5,784	5,779	5,780	5,738
1\|$^{\rm st}$\|-stage F-statistic	9.99	10.41	9.14	10.17

Home

Car

Big item

Any

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

Posterior |$i - E\pi$|

|$-$|0.04

|$-$|1.06^*^*

|$-$|1.32^*^*^*

|$-$|1.33^*

(0.10)

(0.41)

(0.72)

[|$-$|0.217, 0.127]

[|$-$|1.746, |$-$|0.382]

[|$-$|1.995, |$-$|0.645]

[|$-$|2.525, |$-$|0.141]

Plan to buy (pre-treatment)

3.73^*^*^*

7.39^*^*^*

3.73^*^*^*

8.64^*^*^*

(1.18)

(1.61)

(1.40)

(1.48)

Prior |$i - E\pi$|

|$-$|0.01

0.23^*^*^*

0.22^*^*^*

0.20

(0.02)

(0.08)

(0.07)

(0.13)

Female

0.46^*^*^*

0.58

0.91

(0.10)

(0.53)

(0.54)

(0.81)

Age

|$-$|0.06

|$-$|0.28^*

|$-$|0.13

|$-$|0.37^*

(0.05)

(0.15)

(0.14)

(0.20)

Age|$^{2}$|

0.00

0.00^*

0.00

0.00^*

(0.00)

Have child

|$-$|0.05

1.18

−0.81

|$-$|0.11

(0.33)

(1.05)

(0.95)

(1.54)

HH head education: high school

|$-$|0.05

0.45

|$-$|1.24

|$-$|2.17

(0.15)

(0.90)

(0.89)

(1.40)

HH head education: some college

0.06

|$-$|0.83

|$-$|1.03

|$-$|2.95^*^*

(0.15)

(0.76)

(0.82)

(1.27)

HH head education: college or more

0.54^*^*

0.13

|$-$|0.77

|$-$|1.56

(0.23)

(0.87)

(0.81)

(1.35)

ln(household income)

|$-$|0.00

0.01^*

0.00

0.01^*^*

(0.00)

Household size

0.01

|$-$|0.02

0.49^*

0.42

(0.07)

(0.27)

(0.30)

(0.48)

Observations

5,784

5,779

5,780

5,738

1|$^{\rm st}$|-stage F-statistic

9.99

10.41

9.14

10.17

	Home	Car	Big item	Any
Posterior \|$i - E\pi$\|	\|$-$\|0.04	\|$-$\|1.06^^	\|$-$\|1.32^^^*	\|$-$\|1.33^*
	(0.10)	(0.41)	(0.41)	(0.72)
	[\|$-$\|0.217, 0.127]	[\|$-$\|1.746, \|$-$\|0.382]	[\|$-$\|1.995, \|$-$\|0.645]	[\|$-$\|2.525, \|$-$\|0.141]
Plan to buy (pre-treatment)	3.73^^^*	7.39^^^*	3.73^^^*	8.64^^^*
	(1.18)	(1.61)	(1.40)	(1.48)
Prior \|$i - E\pi$\|	\|$-$\|0.01	0.23^^^*	0.22^^^*	0.20
	(0.02)	(0.08)	(0.07)	(0.13)
Female	0.46^^^*	0.58	0.58	0.91
	(0.10)	(0.53)	(0.54)	(0.81)
Age	\|$-$\|0.06	\|$-$\|0.28^*	\|$-$\|0.13	\|$-$\|0.37^*
	(0.05)	(0.15)	(0.14)	(0.20)
Age\|$^{2}$\|	0.00	0.00^*	0.00	0.00^*
	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)
Have child	\|$-$\|0.05	1.18	−0.81	\|$-$\|0.11
	(0.33)	(1.05)	(0.95)	(1.54)
HH head education: high school	\|$-$\|0.05	0.45	\|$-$\|1.24	\|$-$\|2.17
	(0.15)	(0.90)	(0.89)	(1.40)
HH head education: some college	0.06	\|$-$\|0.83	\|$-$\|1.03	\|$-$\|2.95^^
	(0.15)	(0.76)	(0.82)	(1.27)
HH head education: college or more	0.54^^	0.13	\|$-$\|0.77	\|$-$\|1.56
	(0.23)	(0.87)	(0.81)	(1.35)
ln(household income)	\|$-$\|0.00	0.01^*	0.00	0.01^^
	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)
Household size	0.01	\|$-$\|0.02	0.49^*	0.42
	(0.07)	(0.27)	(0.30)	(0.48)
Observations	5,784	5,779	5,780	5,738
1\|$^{\rm st}$\|-stage F-statistic	9.99	10.41	9.14	10.17

Table 4.

Open in new tab

The effect of real interest rates on the purchase of durable goods.

	Home	Car	Big item	Any
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
Posterior \|$i - E\pi$\|	\|$-$\|0.04	\|$-$\|1.06^^	\|$-$\|1.32^^^*	\|$-$\|1.33^*
	(0.10)	(0.41)	(0.41)	(0.72)
	[\|$-$\|0.217, 0.127]	[\|$-$\|1.746, \|$-$\|0.382]	[\|$-$\|1.995, \|$-$\|0.645]	[\|$-$\|2.525, \|$-$\|0.141]
Plan to buy (pre-treatment)	3.73^^^*	7.39^^^*	3.73^^^*	8.64^^^*
	(1.18)	(1.61)	(1.40)	(1.48)
Prior \|$i - E\pi$\|	\|$-$\|0.01	0.23^^^*	0.22^^^*	0.20
	(0.02)	(0.08)	(0.07)	(0.13)
Female	0.46^^^*	0.58	0.58	0.91
	(0.10)	(0.53)	(0.54)	(0.81)
Age	\|$-$\|0.06	\|$-$\|0.28^*	\|$-$\|0.13	\|$-$\|0.37^*
	(0.05)	(0.15)	(0.14)	(0.20)
Age\|$^{2}$\|	0.00	0.00^*	0.00	0.00^*
	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)
Have child	\|$-$\|0.05	1.18	−0.81	\|$-$\|0.11
	(0.33)	(1.05)	(0.95)	(1.54)
HH head education: high school	\|$-$\|0.05	0.45	\|$-$\|1.24	\|$-$\|2.17
	(0.15)	(0.90)	(0.89)	(1.40)
HH head education: some college	0.06	\|$-$\|0.83	\|$-$\|1.03	\|$-$\|2.95^^
	(0.15)	(0.76)	(0.82)	(1.27)
HH head education: college or more	0.54^^	0.13	\|$-$\|0.77	\|$-$\|1.56
	(0.23)	(0.87)	(0.81)	(1.35)
ln(household income)	\|$-$\|0.00	0.01^*	0.00	0.01^^
	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)
Household size	0.01	\|$-$\|0.02	0.49^*	0.42
	(0.07)	(0.27)	(0.30)	(0.48)
Observations	5,784	5,779	5,780	5,738
1\|$^{\rm st}$\|-stage F-statistic	9.99	10.41	9.14	10.17

	Home	Car	Big item	Any
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
Posterior \|$i - E\pi$\|	\|$-$\|0.04	\|$-$\|1.06^^	\|$-$\|1.32^^^*	\|$-$\|1.33^*
	(0.10)	(0.41)	(0.41)	(0.72)
	[\|$-$\|0.217, 0.127]	[\|$-$\|1.746, \|$-$\|0.382]	[\|$-$\|1.995, \|$-$\|0.645]	[\|$-$\|2.525, \|$-$\|0.141]
Plan to buy (pre-treatment)	3.73^^^*	7.39^^^*	3.73^^^*	8.64^^^*
	(1.18)	(1.61)	(1.40)	(1.48)
Prior \|$i - E\pi$\|	\|$-$\|0.01	0.23^^^*	0.22^^^*	0.20
	(0.02)	(0.08)	(0.07)	(0.13)
Female	0.46^^^*	0.58	0.58	0.91
	(0.10)	(0.53)	(0.54)	(0.81)
Age	\|$-$\|0.06	\|$-$\|0.28^*	\|$-$\|0.13	\|$-$\|0.37^*
	(0.05)	(0.15)	(0.14)	(0.20)
Age\|$^{2}$\|	0.00	0.00^*	0.00	0.00^*
	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)
Have child	\|$-$\|0.05	1.18	−0.81	\|$-$\|0.11
	(0.33)	(1.05)	(0.95)	(1.54)
HH head education: high school	\|$-$\|0.05	0.45	\|$-$\|1.24	\|$-$\|2.17
	(0.15)	(0.90)	(0.89)	(1.40)
HH head education: some college	0.06	\|$-$\|0.83	\|$-$\|1.03	\|$-$\|2.95^^
	(0.15)	(0.76)	(0.82)	(1.27)
HH head education: college or more	0.54^^	0.13	\|$-$\|0.77	\|$-$\|1.56
	(0.23)	(0.87)	(0.81)	(1.35)
ln(household income)	\|$-$\|0.00	0.01^*	0.00	0.01^^
	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)
Household size	0.01	\|$-$\|0.02	0.49^*	0.42
	(0.07)	(0.27)	(0.30)	(0.48)
Observations	5,784	5,779	5,780	5,738
1\|$^{\rm st}$\|-stage F-statistic	9.99	10.41	9.14	10.17

Notes: The table reports IV estimates of specification (2). The first stage is given by specification (1). The dependent variable is equal to 100 if a respondent purchased a durable good of the type defined by each column (house in column (1), car in column (2), other big-ticket item in column (3), and any of these in column (4)) in the 6 months following the information treatment and 0, otherwise. All regressions use sampling weights. Robust standard errors are in parentheses. 90% confidence intervals robust to weak IV are reported in square parentheses. “1|$^{\rm st}$| stage F-statistic” reports the F-statistic for the first-stage regression. The treatment of outliers and influential observations is described in Online Appendix C of Coibion et al. (2019). 90% confidence interval robust to weak IV is reported in square parentheses. ^{*, *}^*, and ^*^*^* denote statistical significance at 10%, 5%, and 1% levels, respectively.

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