TABLE 2 Open in new tab Distribution of...

	Scenario A	Scenario B	B-A	B/A
0–14	77	97	131	88	114	167	8.5	16.0	35.3	1.09	1.17	1.29
15–24	373	489	736	379	499	762	4.5	9.5	26.0	1.01	1.02	1.04
25–44	1158	1542	2331	1185	1588	2418	20.0	41.2	104.8	1.02	1.03	1.05
45–65	1150	1638	2744	1171	1684	2839	19.8	41.1	108.0	1.02	1.02	1.04
66–79	357	551	997	363	564	1022	4.6	10.8	30.8	1.01	1.02	1.04
80+	236	432	885	240	442	907	3.5	8.8	24.9	1.01	1.02	1.04
Total(summed)	3365	4764	7731	3438	4901	8009	62.0	127.8	329.3	1.02	1.03	1.05

	Scenario A	Scenario B	B-A	B/A
0–14	77	97	131	88	114	167	8.5	16.0	35.3	1.09	1.17	1.29
15–24	373	489	736	379	499	762	4.5	9.5	26.0	1.01	1.02	1.04
25–44	1158	1542	2331	1185	1588	2418	20.0	41.2	104.8	1.02	1.03	1.05
45–65	1150	1638	2744	1171	1684	2839	19.8	41.1	108.0	1.02	1.02	1.04
66–79	357	551	997	363	564	1022	4.6	10.8	30.8	1.01	1.02	1.04
80+	236	432	885	240	442	907	3.5	8.8	24.9	1.01	1.02	1.04
Total(summed)	3365	4764	7731	3438	4901	8009	62.0	127.8	329.3	1.02	1.03	1.05

TABLE 2

Distribution of predicted cases and comparative measures. $P_{10}$ and $P_{90}$ denote the 10 and 90 percentiles. Values are calculated based on the corresponding samples of internal (model coefficient estimates) and external (Mistry et al. (2021) disease weights in contact matrices) uncertainty, including the differences B-A and the ratios B/A

	Scenario A			Scenario B			B-A			B/A
Age	$P_{10}$	Median	$P_{90}$	$P_{10}$	Median	$P_{90}$	$P_{10}$	Median	$P_{90}$	$P_{10}$	Median	$P_{90}$
0–14	77	97	131	88	114	167	8.5	16.0	35.3	1.09	1.17	1.29
15–24	373	489	736	379	499	762	4.5	9.5	26.0	1.01	1.02	1.04
25–44	1158	1542	2331	1185	1588	2418	20.0	41.2	104.8	1.02	1.03	1.05
45–65	1150	1638	2744	1171	1684	2839	19.8	41.1	108.0	1.02	1.02	1.04
66–79	357	551	997	363	564	1022	4.6	10.8	30.8	1.01	1.02	1.04
80+	236	432	885	240	442	907	3.5	8.8	24.9	1.01	1.02	1.04
Total(summed)	3365	4764	7731	3438	4901	8009	62.0	127.8	329.3	1.02	1.03	1.05

	Scenario A			Scenario B			B-A			B/A
Age	$P_{10}$	Median	$P_{90}$	$P_{10}$	Median	$P_{90}$	$P_{10}$	Median	$P_{90}$	$P_{10}$	Median	$P_{90}$
0–14	77	97	131	88	114	167	8.5	16.0	35.3	1.09	1.17	1.29
15–24	373	489	736	379	499	762	4.5	9.5	26.0	1.01	1.02	1.04
25–44	1158	1542	2331	1185	1588	2418	20.0	41.2	104.8	1.02	1.03	1.05
45–65	1150	1638	2744	1171	1684	2839	19.8	41.1	108.0	1.02	1.02	1.04
66–79	357	551	997	363	564	1022	4.6	10.8	30.8	1.01	1.02	1.04
80+	236	432	885	240	442	907	3.5	8.8	24.9	1.01	1.02	1.04
Total(summed)	3365	4764	7731	3438	4901	8009	62.0	127.8	329.3	1.02	1.03	1.05

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