Table 12 Open in new tab Periods 1–5 and...

	Total accidents
Positive returns	0.0089^***	0.0064^***	−0.0016	0.0013
	(0.0028)	(0.0019)	(0.0046)	(0.0039)
Negative returns	0.0151^***	0.0122^***	−0.0012	−0.0015
	(0.0033)	(0.0019)	(0.0048)	(0.0038)
Continuous returns	−0.0032^**	−0.0031^***	−0.0002	0.0014
	(0.0013)	(0.0010)	(0.0025)	(0.0019)
Period fixed effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
GOR-month fixed effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
N	34,439	34,439	13,772	13,772

	Total accidents
Positive returns	0.0089^***	0.0064^***	−0.0016	0.0013
	(0.0028)	(0.0019)	(0.0046)	(0.0039)
Negative returns	0.0151^***	0.0122^***	−0.0012	−0.0015
	(0.0033)	(0.0019)	(0.0048)	(0.0038)
Continuous returns	−0.0032^**	−0.0031^***	−0.0002	0.0014
	(0.0013)	(0.0010)	(0.0025)	(0.0019)
Period fixed effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
GOR-month fixed effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
N	34,439	34,439	13,772	13,772

Table 12

Periods 1–5 and periods 6 and 7 modelling results for total accidents using linear and negative binomial panel regression

	Total accidents
Sample period	Periods 1–5		Periods 6 and 7
Model specification	Linear	Negative binomial	Linear	Negative binomial
Positive returns	0.0089^***	0.0064^***	−0.0016	0.0013
	(0.0028)	(0.0019)	(0.0046)	(0.0039)
Negative returns	0.0151^***	0.0122^***	−0.0012	−0.0015
	(0.0033)	(0.0019)	(0.0048)	(0.0038)
Continuous returns	−0.0032^**	−0.0031^***	−0.0002	0.0014
	(0.0013)	(0.0010)	(0.0025)	(0.0019)
Period fixed effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
GOR-month fixed effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
N	34,439	34,439	13,772	13,772

	Total accidents
Sample period	Periods 1–5		Periods 6 and 7
Model specification	Linear	Negative binomial	Linear	Negative binomial
Positive returns	0.0089^***	0.0064^***	−0.0016	0.0013
	(0.0028)	(0.0019)	(0.0046)	(0.0039)
Negative returns	0.0151^***	0.0122^***	−0.0012	−0.0015
	(0.0033)	(0.0019)	(0.0048)	(0.0038)
Continuous returns	−0.0032^**	−0.0031^***	−0.0002	0.0014
	(0.0013)	(0.0010)	(0.0025)	(0.0019)
Period fixed effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
GOR-month fixed effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
N	34,439	34,439	13,772	13,772

Notes: Periods 1–5 are days when lagged returns vary. Periods 6 and 7 relate to lagged returns from period 5. The linear model uses logarithms. Standard errors clustered by region–month are shown in parentheses.

***

p < 0.01,

p < 0.05,

p < 0.1.

Source: Authors’ calculations.

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