Table 2 Open in new tab Multivariable...

Activity measure	Adjusted for age and sex	Adjusted for CHARGE-AF components^a and sex
Incident AF (n = 93 669)
Meets ESC/AHA/WHO standard recommendation^b	0.69 (0.63–0.75)	0.743 (0.733–0.752)	<0.01	0.82 (0.75–0.89)	0.762 (0.752–0.771)	<0.01
Meets WHO extended recommendation^c	0.80 (0.71–0.91)	0.739 (0.730–0.749)	<0.01	0.96 (0.85–1.09)	0.761 (0.751–0.770)	0.53
Overall acceleration (per 1 SD increase)	0.85 (0.81–0.90)	0.741 (0.732–0.751)	<0.01	0.97 (0.92–1.02)	0.761 (0.752–0.770)	0.25
Decile of weekly MVPA^d (per 1 decile increase)	0.92 (0.91–0.93)	0.746 (0.736–0.755)	<0.01	0.95 (0.94–0.97)	0.762 (0.753–0.771)	<0.01
N = 2338 AF events; median follow-up 5.2 years (quartile 1: 4.6, quartile 3: 5.8)
Incident stroke (n = 92 512)
Meets ESC/AHA/WHO standard recommendation^b	0.69 (0.58–0.82)	0.716 (0.697–0.734)	<0.01	0.76 (0.64–0.90)	0.734 (0.715–0.754)	<0.01
Meets WHO extended recommendation^c	0.70 (0.55–0.90)	0.712 (0.694–0.731)	<0.01	0.78 (0.61–0.99)	0.733 (0.713–0.753)	0.04
Overall acceleration (per 1 SD increase)	0.77 (0.70–0.85)	0.717 (0.698–0.736)	<0.01	0.82 (0.75–0.91)	0.734 (0.715–0.754)	<0.01
Decile of weekly MVPA^d (per 1 decile increase)	0.92 (0.89–0.95)	0.719 (0.700–0.737)	<0.01	0.94 (0.91–0.97)	0.736 (0.716–0.755)	<0.01
N = 645 stroke events; median follow-up 5.2 years (quartile 1: 4.7, quartile 3: 5.8)

Activity measure

Adjusted for age and sex

Adjusted for CHARGE-AF components^a and sex

Hazard ratio (95% CI)

C-statistic (95% CI)

Hazard ratio (95% CI)

C-statistic (95% CI)

Incident AF (n = 93 669)

Meets ESC/AHA/WHO standard recommendation^b

0.69 (0.63–0.75)

0.743 (0.733–0.752)

<0.01

0.82 (0.75–0.89)

0.762 (0.752–0.771)

<0.01

Meets WHO extended recommendation^c

0.80 (0.71–0.91)

0.739 (0.730–0.749)

<0.01

0.96 (0.85–1.09)

0.761 (0.751–0.770)

0.53

Overall acceleration (per 1 SD increase)

0.85 (0.81–0.90)

0.741 (0.732–0.751)

<0.01

0.97 (0.92–1.02)

0.761 (0.752–0.770)

0.25

Decile of weekly MVPA^d (per 1 decile increase)

0.92 (0.91–0.93)

0.746 (0.736–0.755)

<0.01

0.95 (0.94–0.97)

0.762 (0.753–0.771)

<0.01

N = 2338 AF events; median follow-up 5.2 years (quartile 1: 4.6, quartile 3: 5.8)

Incident stroke (n = 92 512)

Meets ESC/AHA/WHO standard recommendation^b

0.69 (0.58–0.82)

0.716 (0.697–0.734)

<0.01

0.76 (0.64–0.90)

0.734 (0.715–0.754)

<0.01

Meets WHO extended recommendation^c

0.70 (0.55–0.90)

0.712 (0.694–0.731)

<0.01

0.78 (0.61–0.99)

0.733 (0.713–0.753)

0.04

Overall acceleration (per 1 SD increase)

0.77 (0.70–0.85)

0.717 (0.698–0.736)

<0.01

0.82 (0.75–0.91)

0.734 (0.715–0.754)

<0.01

Decile of weekly MVPA^d (per 1 decile increase)

0.92 (0.89–0.95)

0.719 (0.700–0.737)

<0.01

0.94 (0.91–0.97)

0.736 (0.716–0.755)

<0.01

N = 645 stroke events; median follow-up 5.2 years (quartile 1: 4.7, quartile 3: 5.8)

Activity measure	Adjusted for age and sex	Adjusted for CHARGE-AF components^a and sex
Incident AF (n = 93 669)
Meets ESC/AHA/WHO standard recommendation^b	0.69 (0.63–0.75)	0.743 (0.733–0.752)	<0.01	0.82 (0.75–0.89)	0.762 (0.752–0.771)	<0.01
Meets WHO extended recommendation^c	0.80 (0.71–0.91)	0.739 (0.730–0.749)	<0.01	0.96 (0.85–1.09)	0.761 (0.751–0.770)	0.53
Overall acceleration (per 1 SD increase)	0.85 (0.81–0.90)	0.741 (0.732–0.751)	<0.01	0.97 (0.92–1.02)	0.761 (0.752–0.770)	0.25
Decile of weekly MVPA^d (per 1 decile increase)	0.92 (0.91–0.93)	0.746 (0.736–0.755)	<0.01	0.95 (0.94–0.97)	0.762 (0.753–0.771)	<0.01
N = 2338 AF events; median follow-up 5.2 years (quartile 1: 4.6, quartile 3: 5.8)
Incident stroke (n = 92 512)
Meets ESC/AHA/WHO standard recommendation^b	0.69 (0.58–0.82)	0.716 (0.697–0.734)	<0.01	0.76 (0.64–0.90)	0.734 (0.715–0.754)	<0.01
Meets WHO extended recommendation^c	0.70 (0.55–0.90)	0.712 (0.694–0.731)	<0.01	0.78 (0.61–0.99)	0.733 (0.713–0.753)	0.04
Overall acceleration (per 1 SD increase)	0.77 (0.70–0.85)	0.717 (0.698–0.736)	<0.01	0.82 (0.75–0.91)	0.734 (0.715–0.754)	<0.01
Decile of weekly MVPA^d (per 1 decile increase)	0.92 (0.89–0.95)	0.719 (0.700–0.737)	<0.01	0.94 (0.91–0.97)	0.736 (0.716–0.755)	<0.01
N = 645 stroke events; median follow-up 5.2 years (quartile 1: 4.7, quartile 3: 5.8)

Table 2

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Multivariable associations between physical activity and incident atrial fibrillation and stroke

Activity measure	Adjusted for age and sex			Adjusted for CHARGE-AF components^a and sex
Activity measure	Hazard ratio (95% CI)	C-statistic (95% CI)	P	Hazard ratio (95% CI)	C-statistic (95% CI)	P
Incident AF (n = 93 669)
Meets ESC/AHA/WHO standard recommendation^b	0.69 (0.63–0.75)	0.743 (0.733–0.752)	<0.01	0.82 (0.75–0.89)	0.762 (0.752–0.771)	<0.01
Meets WHO extended recommendation^c	0.80 (0.71–0.91)	0.739 (0.730–0.749)	<0.01	0.96 (0.85–1.09)	0.761 (0.751–0.770)	0.53
Overall acceleration (per 1 SD increase)	0.85 (0.81–0.90)	0.741 (0.732–0.751)	<0.01	0.97 (0.92–1.02)	0.761 (0.752–0.770)	0.25
Decile of weekly MVPA^d (per 1 decile increase)	0.92 (0.91–0.93)	0.746 (0.736–0.755)	<0.01	0.95 (0.94–0.97)	0.762 (0.753–0.771)	<0.01
N = 2338 AF events; median follow-up 5.2 years (quartile 1: 4.6, quartile 3: 5.8)
Incident stroke (n = 92 512)
Meets ESC/AHA/WHO standard recommendation^b	0.69 (0.58–0.82)	0.716 (0.697–0.734)	<0.01	0.76 (0.64–0.90)	0.734 (0.715–0.754)	<0.01
Meets WHO extended recommendation^c	0.70 (0.55–0.90)	0.712 (0.694–0.731)	<0.01	0.78 (0.61–0.99)	0.733 (0.713–0.753)	0.04
Overall acceleration (per 1 SD increase)	0.77 (0.70–0.85)	0.717 (0.698–0.736)	<0.01	0.82 (0.75–0.91)	0.734 (0.715–0.754)	<0.01
Decile of weekly MVPA^d (per 1 decile increase)	0.92 (0.89–0.95)	0.719 (0.700–0.737)	<0.01	0.94 (0.91–0.97)	0.736 (0.716–0.755)	<0.01
N = 645 stroke events; median follow-up 5.2 years (quartile 1: 4.7, quartile 3: 5.8)

Activity measure	Adjusted for age and sex			Adjusted for CHARGE-AF components^a and sex
Activity measure	Hazard ratio (95% CI)	C-statistic (95% CI)	P	Hazard ratio (95% CI)	C-statistic (95% CI)	P
Incident AF (n = 93 669)
Meets ESC/AHA/WHO standard recommendation^b	0.69 (0.63–0.75)	0.743 (0.733–0.752)	<0.01	0.82 (0.75–0.89)	0.762 (0.752–0.771)	<0.01
Meets WHO extended recommendation^c	0.80 (0.71–0.91)	0.739 (0.730–0.749)	<0.01	0.96 (0.85–1.09)	0.761 (0.751–0.770)	0.53
Overall acceleration (per 1 SD increase)	0.85 (0.81–0.90)	0.741 (0.732–0.751)	<0.01	0.97 (0.92–1.02)	0.761 (0.752–0.770)	0.25
Decile of weekly MVPA^d (per 1 decile increase)	0.92 (0.91–0.93)	0.746 (0.736–0.755)	<0.01	0.95 (0.94–0.97)	0.762 (0.753–0.771)	<0.01
N = 2338 AF events; median follow-up 5.2 years (quartile 1: 4.6, quartile 3: 5.8)
Incident stroke (n = 92 512)
Meets ESC/AHA/WHO standard recommendation^b	0.69 (0.58–0.82)	0.716 (0.697–0.734)	<0.01	0.76 (0.64–0.90)	0.734 (0.715–0.754)	<0.01
Meets WHO extended recommendation^c	0.70 (0.55–0.90)	0.712 (0.694–0.731)	<0.01	0.78 (0.61–0.99)	0.733 (0.713–0.753)	0.04
Overall acceleration (per 1 SD increase)	0.77 (0.70–0.85)	0.717 (0.698–0.736)	<0.01	0.82 (0.75–0.91)	0.734 (0.715–0.754)	<0.01
Decile of weekly MVPA^d (per 1 decile increase)	0.92 (0.89–0.95)	0.719 (0.700–0.737)	<0.01	0.94 (0.91–0.97)	0.736 (0.716–0.755)	<0.01
N = 645 stroke events; median follow-up 5.2 years (quartile 1: 4.7, quartile 3: 5.8)

AHA, American Heart Association; AF, atrial fibrillation; ESC, European Society of Cardiology; CI, confidence interval; MVPA, moderate-to-vigorous physical activity; WHO, World Health Organization.

CHARGE-AF components include age, race, smoking, height, weight, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, anti-hypertensive medication use, diabetes, heart failure, and myocardial infarction.

Defined as 150 min of moderate intensity or greater activity per week.^11–13

Defined as 300 min of moderate intensity or greater activity per week.¹¹

Decile cut-offs (min): 0–20, 20–45, 45–75, 75–105, 105–135, 135–175, 175–220, 220–287, 287–395, and >395.

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