The EMPEROR-Reduced risk model for the primary outcome (heart failure hospitalization or cardiovascular death)
| . | Hazard ratio (95% CI) . | χ 2 statistic . | Coefficient (SE)a . | P-value . |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Log NT-proBNPb (pg/mL) | 1.63 (1.50–1.77) | 131.0 | 0.49 (0.04) | <0.0001 |
| Log hs-cTnTb (ng/L) | 1.51 (1.37–1.67) | 65.1 | 0.41 (0.05) | <0.0001 |
| Time since most recent HHF (months) | ||||
| >6 | 1.00 (reference) | |||
| 3–6 | 1.55 (1.23–1.95) | 14.0 | 0.44 (0.12) | 0.0002 |
| <3 | 1.84 (1.55–2.19) | 47.7 | 0.61 (0.09) | <0.0001 |
| Time since HF diagnosis | ||||
| <1 year | 1.00 (reference) | |||
| 1–5 years | 1.46 (1.16–1.84) | 10.6 | 0.38 (0.12) | 0.0011 |
| ≥5 years | 1.79 (1.44–2.24) | 26.5 | 0.58 (0.11) | <0.0001 |
| SBP (per 10 mmHg lower) | 1.13 (1.08–1.18) | 26.9 | 0.12 (0.02) | <0.0001 |
| NYHA Class III/IV | 1.40 (1.21–1.63) | 20.2 | 0.33 (0.08) | <0.0001 |
| Heart rate (per 10 b.p.m. higher) | 1.11 (1.05–1.18) | 13.8 | 0.10 (0.03) | 0.0002 |
| Peripheral oedema | 1.32 (1.13–1.53) | 12.8 | 0.28 (0.08) | 0.0004 |
| Randomized to empagliflozin | 0.75 (0.65–0.86) | 17.3 | −0.29 (0.07) | <0.0001 |
| . | Hazard ratio (95% CI) . | χ 2 statistic . | Coefficient (SE)a . | P-value . |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Log NT-proBNPb (pg/mL) | 1.63 (1.50–1.77) | 131.0 | 0.49 (0.04) | <0.0001 |
| Log hs-cTnTb (ng/L) | 1.51 (1.37–1.67) | 65.1 | 0.41 (0.05) | <0.0001 |
| Time since most recent HHF (months) | ||||
| >6 | 1.00 (reference) | |||
| 3–6 | 1.55 (1.23–1.95) | 14.0 | 0.44 (0.12) | 0.0002 |
| <3 | 1.84 (1.55–2.19) | 47.7 | 0.61 (0.09) | <0.0001 |
| Time since HF diagnosis | ||||
| <1 year | 1.00 (reference) | |||
| 1–5 years | 1.46 (1.16–1.84) | 10.6 | 0.38 (0.12) | 0.0011 |
| ≥5 years | 1.79 (1.44–2.24) | 26.5 | 0.58 (0.11) | <0.0001 |
| SBP (per 10 mmHg lower) | 1.13 (1.08–1.18) | 26.9 | 0.12 (0.02) | <0.0001 |
| NYHA Class III/IV | 1.40 (1.21–1.63) | 20.2 | 0.33 (0.08) | <0.0001 |
| Heart rate (per 10 b.p.m. higher) | 1.11 (1.05–1.18) | 13.8 | 0.10 (0.03) | 0.0002 |
| Peripheral oedema | 1.32 (1.13–1.53) | 12.8 | 0.28 (0.08) | 0.0004 |
| Randomized to empagliflozin | 0.75 (0.65–0.86) | 17.3 | −0.29 (0.07) | <0.0001 |
An estimate of each individual’s 2-year risk can be calculated as follows: 1 − [0.9977^exp (0.49 × log NT-proBNP + 0.41 × log hs-cTnT + 0.44 × recent HHF1 + 0.61 × recent HHF2 + 0.38 × time since dignosis1 + 0.58 × time since dignosis2 − (SBP/10) × 0.12 + NYHA × 0.33 + peripheral oedema × 0.28 + (heart rate/10) × 0.10 + empagliflozin × −0.29)], where ‘recent HHF1’ and ‘recent HHF2’ are indicator variables for whether the most recent HHF was within 3–6 or <3 months, respectively; ‘time since dignosis1’ and ‘time since dignosis2’ are indicator variables for whether the time since most recent HF diagnosis between 1 and 5 years or ≥5 years, respectively. NYHA is an indicator variable for whether the patient’s NYHA class is III or IV. Peripheral oedema and empagliflozin are indicator variables for whether the patient has peripheral oedema or is to be treated with empagliflozin, respectively.
CI, confidence interval; HF, heart failure; HHF, hospitalization for heart failure; hs-cTnT, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T; NT-proBNP, N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide; NYHA, New York Heart Association; SBP, systolic blood pressure; SE, standard error.
Coefficient (SE) is the log hazard ratio and its standard error.
Per 1 unit higher on the log scale, equal to 2.7-fold levels of either NT-proBNP or troponin levels.
The EMPEROR-Reduced risk model for the primary outcome (heart failure hospitalization or cardiovascular death)
| . | Hazard ratio (95% CI) . | χ 2 statistic . | Coefficient (SE)a . | P-value . |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Log NT-proBNPb (pg/mL) | 1.63 (1.50–1.77) | 131.0 | 0.49 (0.04) | <0.0001 |
| Log hs-cTnTb (ng/L) | 1.51 (1.37–1.67) | 65.1 | 0.41 (0.05) | <0.0001 |
| Time since most recent HHF (months) | ||||
| >6 | 1.00 (reference) | |||
| 3–6 | 1.55 (1.23–1.95) | 14.0 | 0.44 (0.12) | 0.0002 |
| <3 | 1.84 (1.55–2.19) | 47.7 | 0.61 (0.09) | <0.0001 |
| Time since HF diagnosis | ||||
| <1 year | 1.00 (reference) | |||
| 1–5 years | 1.46 (1.16–1.84) | 10.6 | 0.38 (0.12) | 0.0011 |
| ≥5 years | 1.79 (1.44–2.24) | 26.5 | 0.58 (0.11) | <0.0001 |
| SBP (per 10 mmHg lower) | 1.13 (1.08–1.18) | 26.9 | 0.12 (0.02) | <0.0001 |
| NYHA Class III/IV | 1.40 (1.21–1.63) | 20.2 | 0.33 (0.08) | <0.0001 |
| Heart rate (per 10 b.p.m. higher) | 1.11 (1.05–1.18) | 13.8 | 0.10 (0.03) | 0.0002 |
| Peripheral oedema | 1.32 (1.13–1.53) | 12.8 | 0.28 (0.08) | 0.0004 |
| Randomized to empagliflozin | 0.75 (0.65–0.86) | 17.3 | −0.29 (0.07) | <0.0001 |
| . | Hazard ratio (95% CI) . | χ 2 statistic . | Coefficient (SE)a . | P-value . |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Log NT-proBNPb (pg/mL) | 1.63 (1.50–1.77) | 131.0 | 0.49 (0.04) | <0.0001 |
| Log hs-cTnTb (ng/L) | 1.51 (1.37–1.67) | 65.1 | 0.41 (0.05) | <0.0001 |
| Time since most recent HHF (months) | ||||
| >6 | 1.00 (reference) | |||
| 3–6 | 1.55 (1.23–1.95) | 14.0 | 0.44 (0.12) | 0.0002 |
| <3 | 1.84 (1.55–2.19) | 47.7 | 0.61 (0.09) | <0.0001 |
| Time since HF diagnosis | ||||
| <1 year | 1.00 (reference) | |||
| 1–5 years | 1.46 (1.16–1.84) | 10.6 | 0.38 (0.12) | 0.0011 |
| ≥5 years | 1.79 (1.44–2.24) | 26.5 | 0.58 (0.11) | <0.0001 |
| SBP (per 10 mmHg lower) | 1.13 (1.08–1.18) | 26.9 | 0.12 (0.02) | <0.0001 |
| NYHA Class III/IV | 1.40 (1.21–1.63) | 20.2 | 0.33 (0.08) | <0.0001 |
| Heart rate (per 10 b.p.m. higher) | 1.11 (1.05–1.18) | 13.8 | 0.10 (0.03) | 0.0002 |
| Peripheral oedema | 1.32 (1.13–1.53) | 12.8 | 0.28 (0.08) | 0.0004 |
| Randomized to empagliflozin | 0.75 (0.65–0.86) | 17.3 | −0.29 (0.07) | <0.0001 |
An estimate of each individual’s 2-year risk can be calculated as follows: 1 − [0.9977^exp (0.49 × log NT-proBNP + 0.41 × log hs-cTnT + 0.44 × recent HHF1 + 0.61 × recent HHF2 + 0.38 × time since dignosis1 + 0.58 × time since dignosis2 − (SBP/10) × 0.12 + NYHA × 0.33 + peripheral oedema × 0.28 + (heart rate/10) × 0.10 + empagliflozin × −0.29)], where ‘recent HHF1’ and ‘recent HHF2’ are indicator variables for whether the most recent HHF was within 3–6 or <3 months, respectively; ‘time since dignosis1’ and ‘time since dignosis2’ are indicator variables for whether the time since most recent HF diagnosis between 1 and 5 years or ≥5 years, respectively. NYHA is an indicator variable for whether the patient’s NYHA class is III or IV. Peripheral oedema and empagliflozin are indicator variables for whether the patient has peripheral oedema or is to be treated with empagliflozin, respectively.
CI, confidence interval; HF, heart failure; HHF, hospitalization for heart failure; hs-cTnT, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T; NT-proBNP, N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide; NYHA, New York Heart Association; SBP, systolic blood pressure; SE, standard error.
Coefficient (SE) is the log hazard ratio and its standard error.
Per 1 unit higher on the log scale, equal to 2.7-fold levels of either NT-proBNP or troponin levels.
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